Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict
Source: Washington Post
The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraines eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.
There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability, said a senior Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
....
Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said.
Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments, indicated this week that Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the next few months. After that, Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources, he told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/
May there truly be light at the end of this very dark tunnel.

wryter2000
(47,688 posts)Still, more months. This must end.
DENVERPOPS
(10,814 posts)But, at the same time, I wonder what Putin will do if he doesn't succeed with Ukraine.....Turn to even more deathly weapons to satisfy his teenie weenie complex????
I feared what Trump would do if he lost the election in the many months he had before Biden took office and he had command of our nuclear arsenal.........
Trump and Putin are birds of a feather and have a psychological profile of the same attitude: "I'LL SHOW YOU".........
Srkdqltr
(7,995 posts)mucifer
(25,025 posts)IronLionZion
(47,566 posts)so they're getting plenty of money
quakerboy
(14,288 posts)A national patriotic push to reduce fuel use at every level so that we can supply our allies with our excess production and cut their need for buying russian oil.
Instead we are too busy infighting, talking about how to get minute fuel price reductions instead of lowering fuel demand.
Last time i did the math, Russia was still getting paid more every day for oil than Ukraine is getting in weapons
EX500rider
(11,749 posts)quakerboy
(14,288 posts)and none elsewhere
BumRushDaShow
(147,234 posts)They have pretty much cut out Russian oil. And remember other than us and Russia, the OTHER big producer out there is still Saudi.
The "problem" is that China is Russia's biggest buyer and continues to do so unabated. From my handy dandy chart (and note that the European countries on there have pretty much ceased importing it) -
(although what LNG they were getting through the Nord 1 Pipeline was recently being significantly cut off by Russia, which might be the bigger problem)
So note that even as of 2020, China had almost 3x the amount of oil imports from Russia compared to the highest-importing European country. And that is with China still primarily using coal.
But now India has jumped in and has suddenly switched their oil buying from multiple sources, to having a large percentage coming from Russia due to Russia's heavily discounted price/bbl (I think the last I saw was that they were selling it at around the equivalent of $49/bbl).
This is what India used to do -
and then they switched -
So it's not Europe keeping Russia afloat, it's China and India as the biggest buyers, along with a few Russian-aligned countries chiming in.
paleotn
(19,893 posts)to India, China or whoever, when they have a hard time finding spares, plus expertise if they run into unusual problems. Tough environment, Siberia. Causes things to break more often than more benign environments.
BumRushDaShow
(147,234 posts)and it's a reliable source of income although obviously not enough to sustain their current level of national functions, let alone trying to engage in a significant war.
However they do still have China, who has who knows how many engineers that can reproduce anything (and China is probably the biggest copyright, patent, and intellectual property violator in the world because of that).
They recently turned on a gas pipeline to China (in 2019) - https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/es/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/120219-russia-starts-gas-deliveries-to-china-via-power-of-siberia
So China will make sure that stuff is flowing smoothly. That effort was initiated 8 years ago -
By William Wan and Abigail Hauslohner
May 21, 2014
BEIJING China signed a huge, long-awaited deal on Wednesday to buy Russian natural gas, giving Beijing a new source of clean energy and Moscow a diplomatic boost as it faces international sanctions for its aggressive actions in Ukraine.
With the stroke of a pen, Russia significantly shifted its economic relations with its neighbors, creating a major new export market to the east and reducing its reliance on European customers at a time when its relations with the West are at their lowest point since the Cold War. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the deal a watershed event and said implementation would start tomorrow.
The 30-year deal was announced after meetings in Shanghai between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is worth an estimated $400?billion, Alexei Miller, chief executive of the Russian energy giant Gazprom, told Russian reporters. The deal marked a new partnership between two countries that have at times mistrusted each other but have also sought to counter U.S. influence in global affairs.
Chinas booming economy has created a growing need for energy, especially cleaner sources of power, given its reliance on coal, which has produced major pollution problems. The agreement allows Russia to diversify its gas exports at a time when the crisis in Ukraine has accelerated calls in Europe to rely less on energy supplies from Russia. Europe gets about 30 percent of its gas from Russia.
(snip)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/china-russia-sign-400-billion-gas-deal/2014/05/21/364e9e74-e0de-11e3-8dcc-d6b7fede081a_story.html?hpid=z4
(i.e., the above was initiated after what happened when Russia invaded Crimea (resulting in sanctions), so Pootie had some backstop plans already in place when he invaded Ukraine again this year)
blue-wave
(4,488 posts)if we would just convert all plastic products (oil based) to hemp based products. Hemp production in the U.S. was legalized in 2018. Most plastics can be replaced with hemp. Just imagine the positive impact on the environment and our health if we used biodegradable and renewable hemp based bags instead of plastic bags or water bottles or food packaging, etc. The benefit to our oceans alone would likely be monumental.
machoneman
(4,128 posts)Rural_Progressive
(1,107 posts)and seems to be storing it.
paleotn
(19,893 posts)Doesn't matter how much money you have if you can't buy what you need. All their high tech weaponry runs on chips, boards and other various components they can't get quality replacements for and can't build internally because they can't get suitable production equipment or expertise. They have a fleet of commercial aircraft Aeroflot and it's sister airlines more or less stole, for which they can't get certified spares and have already started cannibalizing to keep at least some airworthy. There's a number of foreign owned factories they also stole for which they can't buy suitable replacement equipment or spares. Does keep the Ruble afloat and to some degree the Russian economy, but beyond that, they're really in a pinch.
NJCher
(38,830 posts)First, they had a formidable arms supply to start with. It takes time to diminish it, and that has been happening.
Second, do you know who supplied them with those arms?
That was a real disappointment to learn.
Finally, one way to look at this is that diminishing the Russian arms supply would be a strategic advantage for us--whether or not they attacked Ukraine, Putin was interfering with our elections and we all know the results. It has been nothing short of disastrous.
The Ukrainians are fully aware that we are accomplishing an important strategic objective for ourselves. Sadly, it is with their lives. We and other important nations may be picking up the tab, but don't think for a minute this curtailing of their arms is a nothing accomplishment--however long it takes.
getagrip_already
(17,624 posts)Especially artillery. Apparently the ministry that made them kept getting leaders to increase orders. It was likely a grift of some sort, but they built an insane amount of stocks.
Of course, a lot of that would be pushing 50 years old by now. Long enough to start to corrode in place depending on how they were stored.
Nonetheless, there are reports out of belarus that russia is loading belarus' ammo onto trains and sending it to russia. They wouldn't need to do that if they still had a multi-year supply on hand.
EX500rider
(11,749 posts)The majority of Russian arms are Russian made.
paleotn
(19,893 posts)They can't build chips, boards and assorted pieces parts themselves. Even their armored vehicles are loaded with western parts. Much of which they can't get anymore.
https://defence-blog.com/russia-uses-western-components-for-its-combat-vehicles/
https://www.upi.com/Voices/2022/05/05/Ukraine-Russian-weapons-arms-embargo/7051651753322/
calimary
(85,182 posts)Lovie777
(16,665 posts)C Moon
(12,707 posts)NJCher
(38,830 posts)Yeah, right, Captain Bonespurs!
machoneman
(4,128 posts)DENVERPOPS
(10,814 posts)And order our military to re-stock his military with anything and everything.........
LetMyPeopleVote
(158,210 posts)Jim__
(14,581 posts)Lil Liberal Laura
(228 posts)You could've fooled me!
getagrip_already
(17,624 posts)in Ukraine.
Martin68
(24,952 posts)corridor from Russia to Crimea, not to mention ports on the Black Sea. I'm afraid Putin and the rest of Russia would consider that a victory. Advanced weapons and training better hurry up or Ukraine will be up shit creek without a paddle. Once Russia takes territory, it doesn't give it up (just like Israel). The sanctions have failed, the ruble is at an all-time high, and Russia is making billions selling oil to China and India. If I sound pessimistic, it is because I'm pessimistic.
Lovie777
(16,665 posts)getagrip_already
(17,624 posts)I wouldn't worry too much about the few km of territory they scratched out. At least not yet.
If they can succeed in freezing the map, then they will have won something. But for now, it's just lines on a map moving back and forth. And fwiw, rus doesn't decide when or if the map gets frozen. UKR will have also something to say about it.
DENVERPOPS
(10,814 posts)You bring up many considerations and some excellent points.
again, thank you for your intelligent input........
BigmanPigman
(52,561 posts)Link to tweet
?s=20&t=zkvVh2yQBKqQ_D0Iwg9MUQ
getagrip_already
(17,624 posts)The thing was so massive, there were worries it would have the impact of a small nuke if it ever sparked off. It was also said that a lot of the ammunition was deteriorating so badly, that the casings were leaking and the explosives spilling out.
If that is where they are getting it, you have to wonder how well it will still work.
BigmanPigman
(52,561 posts)Lonestarblue
(12,248 posts)parceling out weapons a little bit at a time. If Ukrainians had been trained on more sophisticated weapons systems months ago, they might be in better shape now. If Russia is at its weakness, now is the time to hit them the hardest. This war needs to end yesterday.
flashman13
(964 posts)The Russians did not have the strength to close the pincers on the Severodonetsk salient so they resorted to head on frontal assaults. The Ukrainians are staging a well organized fighting retreat with limited forces to wear down the Russians (quite successfully I might add) while they wait to build forces and heavy equipment to the west. I don't think the Russians can keep up the fight for more than a month. When they finally stall out the Ukrainians will stage a large counter attack, cut off Russian forces, and destroy most of them. Then they will also take back the Donbas because the Russians will have used up the local opposition forces. It's a reverse Stalingrad. Perhaps the Russians should read up on their own history.
LudwigPastorius
(11,634 posts)Putin's proxies are ramping up their WWIII rhetoric, threatening to invade Lithuania and destroy London, Finland, and Great Britain in general.
If Russia truly only has a few months worth of fight left, it makes sense that they would start threatening a wider war in an attempt to get a more favorable settlement of the fighting in Ukraine.
CloudWatcher
(1,956 posts)I hope this is true, and Ukraine will be able to take back the east and Crimea as well.
Russia cannot be allowed to keep any Ukrainian territory, it's a terrible precedent.
AndyS
(14,559 posts)Just borrowed from the '70s Vietnam.
Raven123
(6,357 posts)housecat
(3,138 posts)BradAllison
(1,879 posts)Things like "By Sunday, Russia will be out of money".
Whatever.
JCMach1
(28,352 posts)Looked like