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mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts) Thu Jun 2, 2022, 08:21 AM Jun 2022

U.S. Treasury yields fall as data show slowest job growth in pandemic recovery

Last edited Thu Jun 2, 2022, 10:08 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

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U.S. Treasury yields fall as data show slowest job growth in pandemic recovery

PUBLISHED THU, JUN 2 2022 3:29 AM EDT UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
Matt Clinch
@MATTCLINCH81
https://twitter.com/MATTCLINCH81

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped Thursday, as investors looked to employment data showing the slowest pace of job creation in the pandemic recovery so far.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note lost 2.7 basis points to 2.904% as of 8:42 a.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved 1.7 basis points lower to 3.06%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Private sector employment rose by just 128,000 in May, payroll processing firm ADP reported Thursday. That fell well short of the 299,000 Dow Jones estimate and marked a decline from the downwardly revised 202,000 in April, initially reported as a gain of 247,000.

Rates fell as traders took the ADP report to mean the economy is already slowing, suggesting the Federal Reserve could be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy.

{snip}

—CNBC’s Tanaya Macheel and Vicky McKeever contributed to this article.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/us-treasury-yields-dip-ahead-of-employment-data.html

Private-sector employment increased by 128,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/May/NER/NER-May-2022.aspx

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/May/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-May2022-Final-Press-Release.pdf

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 128,000 Jobs in May

ROSELAND, N.J. – June 2, 2022 – Private sector employment increased by 128,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual data of those who are on a company’s payroll, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

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U.S. Treasury yields fall as data show slowest job growth in pandemic recovery (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2022 OP

Those Treasury yield changes are trivial. As for jobs -- well we'll see the BLS monthly jobs report progree Jun 2022 #1

Overall federal tax revenue this year is expected to hit 19.6 percent of gross domestic product bigtree Jun 2022 #2

Tech companies are laying of huge numbers of employees Warpy Jun 2022 #3

Links to earlier reports: mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2022 #4

progree

(10,901 posts)

1. Those Treasury yield changes are trivial. As for jobs -- well we'll see the BLS monthly jobs report

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2022, 11:51 AM

Jun 2022

in less than 24 hours. There's often a big difference between the ADP and the BLS in private sector jobs.

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

the ADP National Employment Report and ADP Small Business Report are derived from ADP payroll data representing 460,000 U.S. clients and nearly 26 million workers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-2021-adp-national-employment-121500533.html

As for how the ADP estimates the other 80%, I have no idea.

bigtree

(85,986 posts)

2. Overall federal tax revenue this year is expected to hit 19.6 percent of gross domestic product

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2022, 12:47 PM

Jun 2022

... “Corporate tax collections were larger in 2021 and early 2022 "

Individual income tax collections for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 are projected to land at their highest level as a share of the U.S. economy since the advent of the income tax in 1913. Overall federal tax revenue this year is expected to hit 19.6 percent of gross domestic product, a figure that’s been topped only three times: twice during World War II and again in 2000, before the dot-com bubble burst.
https://rollcall.com/2022/06/01/unexplained-tax-revenue-growth-vexes-budget-scorekeepers/

...just sayin'.

Warpy

(111,245 posts)

3. Tech companies are laying of huge numbers of employees

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2022, 01:13 PM

Jun 2022

as their stock prices continue to tank and they're forced to start cutting costs. Companies like Uber, Lyft, Carvana, Wayfair, Twitter and other names most people will recognize have never turned a profit and they're tanking fastest, but even Microsoft has sopped hiring unless the person is specifically approved by upper management, which means nobody.

Those stocks were the fast money stocks the way tech stocks were in the late 90s. The ones that never turn a profit will be shaken out, just like they were in 2000-01 when the last tech crash happened. That means more people will be unemployed.

However, they have a skill set that is in demand, so the pain there will be of short duration. What seems ready to crash next are commercial space, especially office space, and then real estate. Both are already looking very shaky. Losing income from big but unprofitable tech companies will make them topple.

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts)

4. Links to earlier reports:

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Jun 3, 2022, 07:58 AM

Jun 2022

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