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Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:39 AM

Model predicts 100,000 more COVID deaths unless U.S. changes its ways

Source: Associated Press

The U.S. is projected to see nearly 100,000 more COVID-19 deaths between now and December 1, according to the nation's most closely watched forecasting model. But health experts say that toll could be cut in half if nearly everyone wore a mask in public spaces.

In other words, what the coronavirus has in store this fall depends on human behavior.

"Behavior is really going to determine if, when and how sustainably the current wave subsides," said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. "We cannot stop Delta in its tracks, but we can change our behavior overnight."

That means doubling down again on masks, limiting social gatherings, staying home when sick and getting vaccinated. "Those things are within our control," Meyers said.

Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-deaths-100k-more-predicted-united-states/

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Reply Model predicts 100,000 more COVID deaths unless U.S. changes its ways (Original post)
TheProle Aug 2021 OP
bearsfootball516 Aug 2021 #1
Moostache Aug 2021 #7
LastLiberal in PalmSprings Aug 2021 #21
former9thward Aug 2021 #23
Tadpole Raisin Aug 2021 #2
Initech Aug 2021 #13
yonder Aug 2021 #18
LisaL Aug 2021 #3
paleotn Aug 2021 #4
Hugh_Lebowski Aug 2021 #5
Orrex Aug 2021 #6
Initech Aug 2021 #12
IronLionZion Aug 2021 #17
Orrex Aug 2021 #24
IronLionZion Aug 2021 #25
Orrex Aug 2021 #26
Orrex Aug 2021 #27
IronLionZion Aug 2021 #28
Orrex Aug 2021 #31
Worried2020 Aug 2021 #32
durablend Aug 2021 #8
peppertree Aug 2021 #9
BumRushDaShow Aug 2021 #10
Traildogbob Aug 2021 #11
FakeNoose Aug 2021 #14
nitpicker Aug 2021 #20
Tetrachloride Aug 2021 #15
IronLionZion Aug 2021 #16
greenjar_01 Aug 2021 #19
nitpicker Aug 2021 #22
DallasNE Aug 2021 #29
Roc2020 Aug 2021 #30

Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:40 AM

1. Masks? BUT WHAT ABOUT MUH FREEDOM

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Response to bearsfootball516 (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:59 AM

7. Don't want to wear a mask? Fine. But you're freedumb has consequences....FOR YOU!

I am done with these people.

1) Mandatory vaccination and mandatory masking indoors where social distancing is not possible
2) Don't want either? Fine...but here is a list of places you will be denied entry:

- schools
- theaters
- restaurants
- shopping centers
- grocery stores
- bars

3) Prepare to carry a modified vaccine card that will show:
- first shot date, lot number
- second shot date, lot number (as needed)
- booster shot date, lot number (as needed)

4) Falsifying Vaccine cards is a felony with a 5 year mandatory minimum to be served in COVID wards of prisons with fellow anti-vaxxers and felons.

Fuck these people...I won't chase you down and inject you forcibly...but I won't allow your behavior to control MY FREEDOM any longer. As usual, these right wing nut jobs have everything exactly backwards and projectionism is their currency of the realm.

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Response to Moostache (Reply #7)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 02:27 PM

21. It also affects your children and significant other.

Your infection can spread to members of your family, endangering their lives. Also, your death could leave them with emotional and financial hardships. In other words, your arrogant selfishness makes you an unfit parent and partner.

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Response to Moostache (Reply #7)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 03:15 PM

23. Other than schools in some places I don't think governments will adopt any of those.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:43 AM

2. Yah a mask will take away your freedom but so will a casket.

Hmmm, mask or casket. Gee that’s hard…

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Response to Tadpole Raisin (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 12:30 PM

13. "Mask it or casket" would make a great advertising slogan!

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Response to Initech (Reply #13)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 01:36 PM

18. Agreed. It's a great frame.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:46 AM

3. We all know how this turns out.

NT

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:54 AM

4. It won't.

Much of the country will continue to burn white hot.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:55 AM

5. The likelihood that a high % of the 100K will be among the DUMBEST people in the USA

is the silver lining in this situation.

So there's that.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 11:57 AM

6. Businesses are driving the current wave of covid

With their nationwide push to get employees back into the workplace and customers in the door, any concerns about such trivia as “safety” and “pandemic” are considered very low priority.

And, while businesses are working so hard to guarantee a huge covid resurgence, schools are doing everything in their power to spread covid as widely as possible among students, teachers, staff & administration.

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Response to Orrex (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 12:29 PM

12. Well the fucking morons who are crashing school board meetings certainly aren't helping things.

They can cry "MUH FREEDUMBS!!!" all they want, but it won't be funny once they or someone they care about is hooked up to a ventilator and fighting for their life.

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Response to Orrex (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 01:17 PM

17. Many businesses are also enforcing vaccine mandates

depending on the business, some are stricter than others.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #17)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 04:01 PM

24. Those businesses are doing the right thing, but they're the exceptions

Overall, the business world is more interested in maintaining control over employees than in helping to protect public health.

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Response to Orrex (Reply #24)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 04:46 PM

25. Business's priority is to make profit

so if they're losing good workers or customers, they change their policies to retain them or lose money.

It depends on the business. Some have anti-mask customers and workers. The dumbest ones would have anti-vax customers and workers because they are just asking for an outbreak.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #25)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 05:05 PM

26. Businesses making profit at the expense of public health should be shut down

That’s true whether it’s a billion dollar corporation dumping hazardous chemicals in a river or a mom and pop corner store requiring workers to clock in while sick with covid.

I know, I know. “Not all businesses.”

But in my line of work I go into a great many businesses each week, and for every one that maintains even minimal covid safety, there are 100 that make no effort at all.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #25)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 05:09 PM

27. Incidentally...

I read a study a few weeks ago showing that businesses prioritize rigid control of their employees over increased productivity. In other words, these entities that exist to generate profit are happy to sacrifice profit if doing so will give them tighter dictatorial control over the workers.

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Response to Orrex (Reply #27)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 05:12 PM

28. That's risky during a labor shortage

when workers are finding better jobs and leaving

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #28)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 08:21 PM

31. Maybe, but it's happening. Damn I wish I could find the article.

I know personally of companies that saw measurable increases in productivity while the bulk of their employees were working from home; nevertheless, they required those employees to return to the office as soon as the in-person ban was lifted.

Productivity plummted, and people quit by the dozens.

But never once did that company consider allowing people to return home, even on a hybrid 3 day/2 day compromise.


It infuriated the company that workers might be watching YouTube, or listening to music, or wearing comfy slippers, or snacking between calls. Even if real productivity increased as a result of employees being happy and comfortable (and, incidentally, safe), the company didn't give a shit and ruled by fiat that they must return to the office.

That's the company where a friend of mine is employed. I told another friend in California about it, and she said the exact same thing was true of her employer.

These aren't two-person operations, either, but multi-million or billion dollar enterprises. Viewed from outside, it's almost as though the company values the pure sadism of being able to force its will upon people, even at the obvious expense of their health and safety.

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Response to Orrex (Reply #31)

Sat Aug 28, 2021, 01:07 AM

32. I think you are spot on.

.

I've worked as an underling for some pretty big outfits here in Ontario where I live, including our Provincial Government and C P Rail.

I've been a Union rep, and a Health & Safety Coordinator - interpreted by Management as a shit-disturber.

Took them years to squeeze me out - gov't - 7 years - CP Rail - 3

I don't think details are necessary



W

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 12:00 PM

8. Yea, we screwed then

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 12:05 PM

9. It's already baked in

Covid deaths have jumped from around 300 daily, to around 1,000 daily - just since July.

Thanks to the GOP and its media surrogates gaslighting 1 in 4 Americans against co-operating with any and all Covid abatement measures, from vaccines on down.

We're in for a long winter thanks to them.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 12:12 PM

10. We have seen this work over and over and over

both in the U.S., for those states who implemented common sense mitgation strategies, and worldwide, where many, if not almost all other countries, literally instituted national lock downs (including some with curfews as well), for some "x" period of time (which the U.S. has never done "nationally" and probably never will do).

Here in Philly, we had been ticking up since July 4th, almost doubling every week and going from ~24/25 cases per day (in a city of 1.6 million) to the low-mid 300s per day. The past week or so, we have leveled off in the 300s - given that mask mandates were put in place just a couple weeks ago (along with city-owned/run facilities, colleges & universities, and some restaurants and entertainment/sports venues implementing vaccine mandates as well).

And surprise surprise. So far so good. However much of the rest of the state of PA (notably the red counties) is out of control.

PA just reported 3,509 cases today, where 1 month ago, it was in the low 1000s per day, having doubled from the low-mid 500s per day the week prior. That takes us back to where we were coming down from the Easter peak in early May.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 12:25 PM

11. 100,000

Is an extremely low ball number, I believe by Christmas with schools, and Football, college and pro, we will go beyond the 1 million number for dead. In reality we may be very close to that now, data is skewed for political protection. Hope I’m wrong, unless it is all trumpers. The country needs a colon cleansing.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 12:39 PM

14. That number seems low

... thinking about the schools back open, the superspreader events such as Sturgis, outdoor rock concerts, state fairs, football games, etc. Then we have holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas....

Even before the Delta variant got here, one could guesstimate 100K deaths by the end of the year. Now with Delta it just seems to be spreading faster with deadlier results.

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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #14)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 02:15 PM

20. There's even more

Labor Day, Columbus Day, fall leaf tourism and yet more.

I am NOT taking myself to the local RenFaire this fall. Or to the indoor Genesis tribute band concert next month.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 01:05 PM

15. The numbers in the AP story have multiple audiences

1. Audience number 1 are the unvaxxed . they might learn something
2. Audience number 2 is similar but wont learn ever.
3. Audience number 3 is the people who wrote or could write a story like this.
4. Audience number 4 is a subset of 3, but wrote this as a CYA.

a few percentage points can change things wildly.

The unexpected is in us right now. We don’t know it yet.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 01:15 PM

16. Half of the US won't change it's ways

so I guess we're going to see more deaths.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 01:51 PM

19. Wow...they're optimists

 

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 02:50 PM

22. I hope we can keep deaths down to about 8K a week

Which would give almost 112K by 1 Dec (almost 14 weeks).

BUT: from morning readings of JHU counting:

Jul 22 to Jul 29: 455940 cases, 1959 deaths

Jul 29 to Aug 5: 658073 cases, 2984 deaths

Aug 5 to Aug 12: 859488 cases, 3604 deaths

Aug 12 to Aug 19: 945819 cases, 5774 deaths

Aug 19 to Aug 26: 1068010 cases,8019 deaths

I'm NOT optimistic.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 05:18 PM

29. This Only Addresses The Delta Variant

What additional impact will there be from the new lambda variant sweeping up from South America? The one that does an end-run on the vaccine.

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Response to TheProle (Original post)

Fri Aug 27, 2021, 06:09 PM

30. I think millions will pay the ultimate price

which is death. Almost half the country are under delusions or deceived by anti Covid propaganda.

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