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Wed Mar 31, 2021, 08:23 AM

Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP

Emily McCormick·Reporter
Wed, March 31, 2021, 8:15 AM

U.S. private employers added back more than half a million jobs in March for the best gain since September, according to a report from ADP on Wednesday. However, job growth still slightly missed expectations, even as February's inclement weather abated and the domestic vaccination program picked up steam.

Private payrolls grew by 517,000 in March, ADP said in its closely watched monthly report. This followed a revised gain of 176,000 in February, up from the 117,000 previously reported. Consensus economists were looking for domestic private employers to bring back 550,000 jobs during the month, according to Bloomberg data.

The services sector again handily led the way in recovering jobs, with service-providing payrolls climbing by 437,000 in March. Leisure and hospitality industries made the largest advances, with payrolls rising by 169,000. Trade, transportation and utilities jobs also rose by 92,000, and professional and business services jobs rose by 83,000. ...The goods-producing sector also posted net private payroll gains in March, with these increasing by 80,000. Construction and manufacturing jobs rose by 32,000 and 49,000, respectively, though mining positions edged lower by 1,000.

Heading into Wednesday's report, more timely data on the state of the U.S. labor market hinted at an upturn in employment at the beginning of spring. New weekly jobless claims fell to a pandemic-era low last week, as the number of those newly unemployed fell by the most in seven months. Plus, the Conference Board's latest report this week showed that consumer confidence picked up to a one-year high in March, with stronger consumption trends and increased demand set to engender more hiring. (1)

{snip}

(1) https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-private-employment-payrolls-change-march-2021-131527071-121546711.html



Private-sector employment increased by 517,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/March/NER/NER-March-2021.aspx

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/March/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-March2021-Final-Press-Release.pdf

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 517,000 Jobs in March

ROSELAND, N.J. - March 31, 2021 - Private sector employment increased by 517,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

{snip}

Total Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment



Historical Trend
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment



Change By Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

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Reply Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 31 OP
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 31 #1
Hugin Mar 31 #2
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 31 #3
Hugin Mar 31 #4
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 31 #6
progree Mar 31 #11
NoMoreRepugs Mar 31 #5
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 31 #7
NoMoreRepugs Mar 31 #8
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 31 #9
progree Mar 31 #10

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 08:35 AM

1. Links to earlier reports:

Good morning, all.

Fri Mar 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Feb 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Feb 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jan 8, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 6, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Dec 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Dec 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Nov 6, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Nov 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Oct 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 30, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Sep 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Aug 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Jul 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jun 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 8, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, April 3, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, February 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thursday, January 9, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2021:

The economy added 379,000 jobs in February

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 117,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2021:

Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 174,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2020:

The economy lost 140,000 jobs in December

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 123,000 from November to December, seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2020:

Job Growth Slows Sharply As Pandemic Takes Toll On Economy

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 307,000 from October to November, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2020:

U.S. added 638,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate slides to 6.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 365,000 from September to October, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2020:

September jobs report: US economy gains 661,000 payrolls, unemployment rate ticks down to 7.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 749,000 from August to September on seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2020:

Economy adds 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 428,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2020:

Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 2,760,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment falls by 701,000 in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2020:

The U.S. labor market showed strength in February, adding 273,000 jobs

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2020:

U.S. adds 183,000 private-sector jobs in February, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2020:

The economy added 225,000 jobs in January, showing continued strength

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2020:

ADP says 291,000 private-sector jobs created in January, largest gain in 4 years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2019:

Economy adds 145,000 jobs in December as unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2019:

U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 08:52 AM

2. I still have some questions about what happened in Apr '20.

There's a deep downward spike and then it returns to almost a 'zero' normal the following month in the second chart.

Was that an artifact of the standard 'Have you worked in the last week?' question on the surveys? Was the return to 'normal' a correction WRT COVID in the surveys?

The first and third charts seem to indicate there was an initial rebound of -19,392 + (3,170 + 4,350) = -11,872 between Apr - Jun '20. I don't think that rebound was hires.

It was perhaps people who were returning to work and reporting they had worked during the time period?



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Response to Hugin (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 09:13 AM

3. You can link to those reports directly.

Those show the effects of COVID-19 kicking in.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 09:29 AM

4. Thanks, mahatma.

I was just now looking at those from your OP.

It's nice to see what seems to be a return to sanity on the near side of the charts. Including the latest report.

I'm curious as to whether we'll ever really know the extent of what happened a year ago. I haven't seen anything like it since the dot.com crash in 2000-ish. With almost daily reports of companies laying off 100's of thousands.

20.5 million jobs. These are all people we know and love.

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Response to Hugin (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 10:59 AM

6. Don't thank me; thank the economists at ADP and BLS who churn the data every day to

come up with these reports.

All I do is cut and paste. They do all the work.

Yeah, I know what you mean. It's a labor of love.

Thanks for writing.

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Response to Hugin (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 03:03 PM

11. The ADP and the BLS payroll jobs reports don't ask individuals whether they worked or not

in the past week or past 4 weeks or anything like that. The BLS's famous payroll jobs numbers comes from businesses responding to the BLS's Establishment Survey.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey),
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly change: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

The ADP numbers come from payroll data and like I said elsewhere, they only handle about 20% of the private sector payroll, and how they estimate the other 80%, I have no idea, but I'm sure they don't call households in some kind of survey.

It was perhaps people who were returning to work and reporting they had worked during the time period?


Where the BLS asks people several questions is their Current Population Survey, better known as their household survey where they call 60,000 households a month. That is the source of the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and most of the other "jobs reports" statistics other than payroll job numbers and average wages.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 10:58 AM

5. Slightly disingenuous of AP to use "missing expectations" - when the expectation is an estimate not

something based upon a statistical "known."

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Response to NoMoreRepugs (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 11:01 AM

7. ADP, not AP.

Automatic Data Processing. They handle payrolls for lots of entities. Mine too, I think.

This is the private sector report. In two days, we get the BLS.

Same bat time; same bat channel.

Thanks for writing.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 11:03 AM

8. My bad - accuracy is everything.

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Response to NoMoreRepugs (Reply #8)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 11:20 AM

9. De nada.

The Wall Street Journal.'s writers use the word too. "Economists surveyed said they expected an increase of xyz,000 jobs in this week's ...."

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 31, 2021, 02:40 PM

10. ADP handles about 20% of payrolls. As for how they estimate the other 80%, I have no idea

Automatic Data Processing. They handle payrolls for lots of entities.


https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm
Jerome Powell Fed Chair at the time:

"Several years ago, we began a collaboration with the payroll processing firm ADP to construct a measure of payroll employment from their data set, which covers about 20 percent of the nation's private workforce" - Jerome Powell, 10/18/19

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