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Fri Mar 5, 2021, 09:34 AM

The economy added 379,000 jobs in February

Source: Washington Post

The U.S. economy added 379,000 jobs in February, a level that surpassed analysts’ estimates but remains below the rate needed to regain the more than nine million jobs lost since last year.

The unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a percentage point to 6.2 percent.

The report, which covers the first full month of the Biden presidency, is a reflection of an economy that is still very much bogged down by the pandemic. Economists and public health experts are more optimistic about the coming months, as the rate of vaccinations improves.

February saw improving caseloads and re-openings for businesses like restaurants and bars in states like California and New York. But many industries, such as tourism and hospitality, now employ far less workers than they did before the pandemic.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/03/05/february-jobs-report-unemployment-2021/



How to navigate the landmine of "breaking headlines" without story links but finally got it done.

Stay tuned for the DU economy analysts to provide the deep dives into the data!

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Reply The economy added 379,000 jobs in February (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Mar 5 OP
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 5 #1
progree Mar 5 #2
IronLionZion Mar 5 #3
GemDigger Mar 5 #4
BumRushDaShow Mar 5 #5
progree Mar 5 #6
hamsterjill Mar 6 #7
mahatmakanejeeves Mar 8 #8

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Mar 5, 2021, 09:39 AM

1. Links to earlier reports:

Good morning, all.

Wed Mar 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Feb 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Feb 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jan 8, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 6, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Dec 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Dec 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Nov 6, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Nov 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Oct 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 30, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Sep 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Aug 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Jul 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jun 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 8, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, April 3, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, February 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thursday, January 9, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 117,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2021:

Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 174,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2020:

The economy lost 140,000 jobs in December

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 123,000 from November to December, seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2020:

Job Growth Slows Sharply As Pandemic Takes Toll On Economy

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 307,000 from October to November, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2020:

U.S. added 638,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate slides to 6.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 365,000 from September to October, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2020:

September jobs report: US economy gains 661,000 payrolls, unemployment rate ticks down to 7.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 749,000 from August to September on seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2020:

Economy adds 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 428,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2020:

Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 2,760,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment falls by 701,000 in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2020:

The U.S. labor market showed strength in February, adding 273,000 jobs

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2020:

U.S. adds 183,000 private-sector jobs in February, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2020:

The economy added 225,000 jobs in January, showing continued strength

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2020:

ADP says 291,000 private-sector jobs created in January, largest gain in 4 years

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Mar 5, 2021, 09:43 AM

2. Links to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. And some key numbers

Last edited Fri Mar 5, 2021, 04:37 PM - Edit history (2)

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
2019: 237 -50 168 219 63 175 193 195 221 195 234 161
2020: 315 289 -1683 -20679 2833 4846 1726 1583 716 680 264 -227
2021: 166 379
January and February are Preliminary. In thousands

   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

2019: -120 279 -95 -68 142 248 486 244 369 126 184 195
2020: -76 73 -3196 -22166 3854 4876 1677 3499 267 2126 140 21
2021: 201 208
Jan and Feb of each year are affected by changes in population controls. In thousands

   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth
The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)
Monthly change in thousands:
2020: -124 -7 -1727 -6243 1722 1597 288 733 -740 640 -182 31
2021: -406 50
Total count in thousands:
2020: 164455 164448 162721 156478 158200 159797 160085 160818 160078 160718 160536 160567
2021: 160161 160211
February 2021 is down 4.237 million from February 2020 -- lots of people are discouraged from looking because of poor prospects and/or concerns over coronavirus. And note that February is down 356,000 from December and down 607,000 over the past 6 months
January and February data affected by changes in population controls.


# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
2020: 5796 5717 7185 23109 20975 17697 16308 13542 12535 11049 10728 10736
2021: 10130 9972 (in thousands)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000

# Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
2020: 6.1 6.0 6.8 16.7 16.7 15.3 14.4 12.8 12.0 10.8 10.3 9.9  
2021: 9.2 9.9   Trump: "what have you got to lose?"

# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
2020: 4.3 4.4 6.0 18.9 17.6 14.5 12.7 10.5 10.3 8.8 8.4 9.3
2021: 8.6 8.5

# White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
2020: 3.0 3.0 3.9 14.1 12.3 10.1 9.2 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.9 6.0
2021: 5.7 5.6

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062


ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Data series finder: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Mar 5, 2021, 10:41 AM

3. Biden is killing so many oil pipeline jobs and destroying the economy with mask mandates

oh wait....

There should be good jobs for nurses to administer vaccines. Workplaces are getting safer as many healthcare workers and essential workers were first to get vaccinated. The road to recovery is looking good except for a few stupid red states who ended their mask mandates too early.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Mar 5, 2021, 12:56 PM

4. New jobs or are these old businesses reopening, that is what I wonder about.

Back to work is not what I would consider adding jobs. Adding jobs would be NEW businesses or businesses hiring MORE employees.

End of rant.

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Response to GemDigger (Reply #4)

Fri Mar 5, 2021, 01:17 PM

5. Believe it or not

the pandemic has actually generated a whole new sector of jobs in the healthcare industry, including testing and now vaccine production/distribution. There also may be those opportunities for development of all the databases necessary to track those vaccines (where hopefully that sector could get an infusion of money to do that work via state funding that is finally being included in the COVID relief package, and that gets passed by both chambers, and signed into law).

The guys who posted in #1 & #2 have been combing through the BLS data so they might have a better handle on which sectors of the economy are seeing growth. I would think the whole travel/hospitality industry (including support for entertainment) is pretty much killed but slowly coming back. But what is "new" should be that health sector. It might be a temporary "blip" in the scheme of the next couple years, but I expect the need will be there at least for the first half of this year, if not the rest of this year.

The other sector that is slowly going to grow is the marijuana/hemp industry, where several more states have legalized it for recreational use (being in PA, including my next door state of New Jersey). That means growers, processors, and distributors.



And certainly the logistics of packages and moving them around the country, has grown exponentially, and that is definitely having an impact on hiring - see Amazon (who is still opening up all kinds of warehouses and other distribution points, around the country, although that is no longer "in the news" ).

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Response to GemDigger (Reply #4)

Fri Mar 5, 2021, 04:44 PM

6. We're still short 9.475 million jobs since February 2020, a 6.2% decline from that point

Meanwhile, the civilian non-institutional population (the base of the Household Survey statistics) has grown somewhat: 1.29 million since February 2020 -- https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
(that's the non-seasonally adjusted data series. They seem to have gotten rid of the seasonally adjusted one that used to live at http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Sat Mar 6, 2021, 10:36 AM

7. Let me give a reality check, please.

I’m looking for administrative work in San Antonio, Texas. For every job I’ve applied to, there are typically 200 applicants.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon Mar 8, 2021, 01:27 PM

8. From the source:

Payroll employment rises by 379,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 6.2%

Economic News Release USDL-21-0365

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, March 5, 2021

Technical information:
Household data: [email protected] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [email protected] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * [email protected]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2021


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In February, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller gains in temporary help services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction, and mining.

{snip}

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 6.2 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 10.0 million, changed little in February. Although both measures are much lower than their April 2020 highs, they remain well above their pre-pandemic levels in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively). (See table A-1. See the box note at the end of this news release for more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic.)

{snip}

The labor force participation rate remained at 61.4 percent in February. This measure is 1.9 percentage points lower than the value a year earlier. The employment-population ratio, at 57.6 percent, changed little over the month but is down by 3.5 percentage points over the year. (See table A-1.)

{snip}

Household Survey Supplemental Data

In February, 22.7 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 23.2 percent in January. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic.

In February, 13.3 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic--that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the last 4 weeks due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 14.8 million in January. Among those who reported in February that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 10.5 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, down from 12.7 percent in January.

Among those not in the labor force in February, 4.2 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 4.7 million in January. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)

These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in May 2020 to help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not seasonally adjusted. Tables with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months are available online at www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 379,000 in February but is down by 9.5 million, or 6.2 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In February of this year, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller gains in temporary help services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction, and mining. (See table B-1. See the box note at the end of this news release for more information about how the establishment survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic.)

{snip}

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents to $30.01. Average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $25.19, changed little (+4 cents). The large employment fluctuations over the past year--especially in industries with lower-paid workers--complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.3 hour to 34.6 hours in February. In manufacturing, the workweek declined by 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours, and overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.4 hour to 34.0 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 79,000, from -227,000 to -306,000, and the change for January was revised up by 117,000, from +49,000 to +166,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined was 38,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

____________
The Employment Situation for March is scheduled to be released on Friday, April 2, 2021, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

* * * * *

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