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Fri Feb 5, 2021, 09:42 AM

Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000)

Economic News Release USDL-21-0158

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, February 5, 2021

Technical information:
Household data: [email protected] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [email protected] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * [email protected]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2021


The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3 percent in January, while nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+49,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In January, notable job gains in professional and business services and in both public and private education were offset by losses in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

{snip}

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 72,000, from +336,000 to +264,000, and the change for December was revised down by 87,000, from -140,000 to -227,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined was 159,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the November and December revisions.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 5, 2021, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Read more: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

-- -- -- -- --

I heard on KYW this morning that an increase of 105,000 jobs was expected.

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Reply Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000) (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Feb 5 OP
BumRushDaShow Feb 5 #1
mahatmakanejeeves Feb 5 #2
progree Feb 5 #3
progree Feb 5 #4
mahatmakanejeeves Feb 7 #5
mahatmakanejeeves Feb 8 #6
progree Feb 8 #7
mahatmakanejeeves Feb 9 #8

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Feb 5, 2021, 10:59 AM

1. Was jammed up with laptop AND iPad (iOS) upgrades this morning



By the time they were done you came to the rescue! The Senate was working all night with their vote-a-rama on amendments to the budget conference framework and finally voted on their final version at around 5:30 this morning.

Here is WaPo's report -

The economy gained 49,000 jobs in January

By Eli Rosenberg
Feb. 5, 2021 at 8:32 a.m. EST


The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in January, a modest increase amid the labor market’s ongoing strain from the coronavirus pandemic. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent.

The January data, released by the Labor Department, is yet another reminder of how much ground the labor market still needs to regain to return to pre-pandemic levels. The country has recovered just over half of the 22 million jobs lost between February and April, but the economic recovery has recently flatlined.

In December, the labor market slid backwards, shedding 140,000 jobs, primarily due to steep loses in the leisure and hospitality industry. And the economy only grew by a paltry 1 percent in the last last three months of 2020, according to last week’s Bureau of Economic Analysis figures.

The data comes as negotiations over a new stimulus package heat up in Congress. Democrats appear to be moving forward with President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan that would extend unemployment benefits through September, as well as provide a $1,400 stimulus checks for many Americans. It would also raise the minimum wage, increase the child tax credit, provide rental assistance and money for nutrition programs, while setting aside hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to state and local governments.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/05/january-jobs-report-2021-unemployment/


NYT -

The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in January, a weak showing after a virus surge.

The American economy produced little relief last month as the winter pandemic surge continued to stymie a rebound in the labor market. The weak showing comes in the midst of a fresh effort in Washington to provide a big infusion of aid to foster a recovery. U.S. employers added 49,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The number reflected a disappointing month of hiring even as it provided hope of renewed economic momentum.

The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent, from 6.7 percent. The limited January gains followed an outright setback in December, when the economy shed jobs for the first time since April. December’s loss, originally stated at 140,000, was revised on Friday to 227,000. The gain for November was revised from 336,000 to 264,000. There was a small victory in avoiding a second consecutive month of job losses, a prospect that some economists had feared given the one-two punch of rising coronavirus cases and waning federal aid.

“It is a positive sign that we got over those speed bumps and the wheels haven’t completely come off the car,” said Nick Bunker, head of research for the job site Indeed. But Mr. Bunker said the gains were nothing to celebrate. The economy still has more than nine million fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic, and progress has slowed significantly since the summer. “It’s not clear that this one month assuages those concerns,” he said. “A hundred thousand here, a hundred thousand there is steady progress, but it’s not the sort of gains we need to see.”

Looking to strengthen the recovery, President Biden and congressional Democrats have been pressing for a $1.9 trillion relief measure. The legislation took a step forward early Friday when the Senate narrowly passed a budget resolution that will next go to the House, where Democrats will not need Republican support to approve it.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/05/business/stock-market-today/the-us-economy-added-49000-jobs-in-january-a-weak-showing-after-a-virus-surge

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 5, 2021, 01:04 PM

2. Good afternoon. I figured it would be something like that.

The first time I had a system upgrade, I think it actually ended up taking a few days. It was back in September, I'm pretty sure on the day when I voted.

This was just a patch, so it went much more quickly. Still my phone was out of commission for a while.

As for the jobs, it's not as much as they were hoping for. I'll add some more stuff later. I'm actually doing something interesting for work now. I'm writing proposed edits for the Federal Register.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Feb 5, 2021, 01:10 PM

3. Links to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. And some key numbers

Everyone of these data series comes with a table and graph.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
2019: 237 -50 168 219 63 175 193 195 221 195 234 161
2020: 315 289 -1683 -20679 2833 4846 1726 1583 716 680 264 -227
2021: 49
December and January are Preliminary. In thousands

   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

2019: -120 279 -95 -68 142 248 486 244 369 126 184 195
2020: -76 73 -3196 -22166 3854 4876 1677 3499 267 2126 140 21
2021: 201
Jan and Feb of each year are affected by changes in population controls. In thousands

   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth
The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)
Monthly change in thousands:
2020: -124 -7 -1727 -6243 1722 1597 288 733 -740 640 -182 31
2021: -406
Total count in thousands:
2020: 164455 164448 162721 156478 158200 159797 160085 160818 160078 160718 160536 160567
2021: 160161
January 2021 is down 4.287 million from February 2020 -- lots of people are discouraged from looking because of poor prospects and/or concerns over coronavirus. And note that January is down 406,000 from December and down 657,000 over the past 5 months
January and February data affected by changes in population controls.


# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
2020: 5796 5717 7185 23109 20975 17697 16308 13542 12535 11049 10728 10736
2021: 10130 (in thousands)
(but continuing claims for unemployment insurance IN ALL PROGRAMS for the week ending January 16 was 17835 thousand, it's higher because, because, because it's not lower and its not the same, that's why . The continuing claims in all programs statistic lags by about 2 1/2 weeks, the above is the latest as of Friday 2/5. )

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending January 16 was 17,835,525, a decrease of 486,405 from the previous week.



# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000

# Black unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
2020: 6.1 6.0 6.8 16.7 16.7 15.3 14.4 12.8 12.0 10.8 10.3 9.9  
2021: 9.2 Trump: "what have you got to lose?"

# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
2020: 4.3 4.4 6.0 18.9 17.6 14.5 12.7 10.5 10.3 8.8 8.4 9.3
2021: 8.6

# White unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
2020: 3.0 3.0 3.9 14.1 12.3 10.1 9.2 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.9 6.0
2021: 5.7

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062


ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Feb 5, 2021, 01:34 PM

4. So we went backwards, eh? Jan: +49,000. Nov & Dec revised down a combined 159,000.

49-159 = -110

So we have 110,000 fewer jobs than we saw in the previous month's report. Interesting.

==####################################==

No wonder the unemployment rate dropped. That's because the labor force in January dropped 406,000 from December. It has dropped 657,000 over the past 5 months.

(The labor force is the sum of the employed + unemployed. The unemployed is defined as the jobless who have looked for work sometime in the past 4 weeks, and say they are ready and willing to take a job.

The unemployed dropped by 606,000. The employed supposedly increased by 201,000. Thus the labor force dropped by 606,000 less 201,000 = 405,000 = 406,000 after correcting for roundings.

The "employed" in the Household Survey report -- the report that produces the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate, as well as the "employed" and "unemployed" above -- is different from the headline nonfarm payroll jobs number which is produced from the different Establishment Survey).

Anyway, the point is that far fewer people were looking for work in January than in December.

The labor force participation rate for prime age people (age 25-54) :
Feb 2020: 82.8. Then it plunged then got back up to June: 81.5 and has been wiggly-line dwindling ever since, now (January 2021) at 81.0. The graph is a much better illustration: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060

==####################################==

I see the Washington Post got it wrong:

"In December, the labor market slid backwards, shedding 140,000 jobs, "

False, the December number was revised to shedding 227,000 jobs.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Sun Feb 7, 2021, 03:44 PM

5. Links to earlier reports:

Good morning, all.

Wed Feb 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jan 8, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 6, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Dec 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Dec 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Nov 6, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Nov 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Oct 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 30, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Sep 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Aug 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Jul 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jun 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 8, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, April 3, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, February 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thursday, January 9, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 174,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2020:

The economy lost 140,000 jobs in December

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 123,000 from November to December, seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2020:

Job Growth Slows Sharply As Pandemic Takes Toll On Economy

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 307,000 from October to November, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2020:

U.S. added 638,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate slides to 6.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 365,000 from September to October, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2020:

September jobs report: US economy gains 661,000 payrolls, unemployment rate ticks down to 7.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 749,000 from August to September on seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2020:

Economy adds 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 428,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2020:

Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 2,760,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment falls by 701,000 in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2020:

The U.S. labor market showed strength in February, adding 273,000 jobs

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2020:

U.S. adds 183,000 private-sector jobs in February, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2020:

The economy added 225,000 jobs in January, showing continued strength

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2020:

ADP says 291,000 private-sector jobs created in January, largest gain in 4 years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2019:

Economy adds 145,000 jobs in December as unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2019:

U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Mon Feb 8, 2021, 09:45 AM

6. U.S. Department of Labor Blog

Helping the Economy by Helping Workers

Filed in Jobs • By: Janelle Jones • February 5, 2021

Today’s report shows that our economy is still in crisis. In the spring of 2020, the economy lost 22 million jobs, and more than half of those jobs have yet to be recovered. Across all sectors of the economy and the country, joblessness, lost incomes, and fragile employment have left workers facing uncertainty at best and economic devastation at worst. While some progress has been made, we have a long way to go, and workers are still struggling. This is my first jobs report in my role as chief economist here at the Department of Labor, and I will continue to follow this data monthly as I track how workers are faring in the economy, and to provide you – the American people – with important information about what this data tell us about our lives and work.

Overall, the unemployment rate decreased to 6.3%, a 0.4 percentage point change from the previous month. Unlike the previous month, the unemployment rate for men and women moved in the same direction with statistically significant decreases (0.3 percentage point for women and 0.4 percentage point for men). The unemployment for both now stands at 6.0%. However, in the last month, 275,000 women have dropped out of the labor force altogether.

{snip}

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #6)

Mon Feb 8, 2021, 01:01 PM

7. 275,000 women and 131,000 men for a total of 401,000 dropped out of the labor force in Jan.

and 4.287 million since February 2020.

Since February 2020,
Prime age men's LFPR dropped from 89.1% to 87.7%, a drop of 1.4 percentage points,
Prime age women's LFPR dropped from 76.8% to 74.8%, a drop of 2.0 percentage points
(prime age = ages 25-54)

Here's some labor force and labor force participation rate statistics

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth
The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)
Monthly change in thousands:
2020: -124 -7 -1727 -6243 1722 1597 288 733 -740 640 -182 31
2021: -406
Total count in thousands:
2020: 164455 164448 162721 156478 158200 159797 160085 160818 160078 160718 160536 160567
2021: 160161
January 2021 is down 4.287 million from February 2020 -- lots of people are discouraged from looking because of poor prospects and/or concerns over coronavirus. And note that January is down 406,000 from December and down 657,000 over the past 5 months
January and February data affected by changes in population controls.


# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062


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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Feb 9, 2021, 04:52 PM

8. Links to charts and graphs from the BLS Twitter account:

Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000) http://go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata



Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on The Employment Situation for January 2021 https://go.usa.gov/xAh25 #JobsReport #BLSdata



See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport http://go.usa.gov/cn5B4 #BLSdata #DataViz



Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics #JobsReport #BLSdata


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