Gallup shows Romney pulling ahead in swing states

[budkin]

Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:11 PM - Edit history (2)

Source: Washington Post

Mitt Romney has opened up a slight lead on President Obama in the 12 most competitive states in the country, according to a new poll from USA Today and Gallup.

The poll shows Romney at 51 percent among a sample of likely voters in the 12 states, while Obama is at 46 percent.

Perhaps most strikingly, the poll shows Romney running even with Obama among women, with the two candidates tied at 48 percent.

The poll comes a week after most swing state polling showed Obama holding relatively steady. Republicans expecting a significant bounce from Romney’s debate performance two weeks ago had yet to see that momentum in the states that matter most.


Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/gallup-shows-romney-pulling-ahead-in-swing-states/

---

Chris Cillizza's Fix hawking a WAY outdated poll (October 5-11). This is completely misleading and I don't know why it's being published today.

[budkin]

1. WAY outdated poll (October 5-11) Gotta love Chris Cillizza

Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:11 PM - Edit history (1)

I swear he loves to troll Obama supporters.

[donnasgirl]

24. out dated or not

All the polls show this to be a close race,even Nate silver has Obama at 61 percent of winning,i don't know about you folks but i will push my ass off until the election is over,and please do the same.IT"S TIME TO SEND RMONEY HOME FOR GOOD and by a wide margin

[teabaggersarestupid]

31. Not true

Nate Silver has Obama at 66% now. The polls over the weekend have shown Romney's lead receding and confirming that Obama still has a solid lead in all-important Ohio.

Of course, Obama still must have a good debate tomorrow and of course we should not rest until election day but things are looking a bit better now than they were last week.

[hrmjustin]

34. welcome to du

[donnasgirl]

45. teabaggersarestupid

Those were the last numbers i seen,if i am off i will say i am sorry my point to my post is i want to see RMONEY lose by 30% or more.The man is no good and does not deserve a second look,vulture capitalism should be against the law period and that is what that slime ball is a vulture.He doesn't care about this country he just wants another feather in his cap.

[hrmjustin]

33. welcome to DU and keep fighting.

[skeewee08]

2. This's does not sound right...

President O tied with women... WTF

[regnaD kciN]

10. Pew said the same last week...

I doubted it then, and I doubt this now. I wonder what sort of LV screen this poll used?

[Qutzupalotl]

32. This is last week.

Oct 5-11

[Kteachums]

41. I agree with you skeewee08. This is crazy!

The only women that would vote for Romney are those totally controlled by men. They want to take all rights away from women. How could women want that? Unreal!!!!!

[Moosepoop]

44. Relax -- it's a flawed poll.

Romney pollster Neil Newhouse says the poll shows "encouraging movement" in the wake of the first debate in Denver. Obama pollster Joel Benenson calls the method used to identify likely voters flawed.

"In the last election, Gallup's registered voter model — not its likely voter model — was a much more accurate predictor, with their likely model missing the mark in 2010 by 9 points right before the election," Benenson says. "That explains why Gallup's results are way out of line with a dozen recent swing state polls that show the president with a double-digit lead among women."

Among all registered voters in the survey, Obama leads by nine points among women and by two points overall, 49%-47%.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/

[cheriemedium59]

3. Gallup is a joke!

[KamaAina]

4. It's Gallup.

If you have a cat, use it to line his/her litter box. Otherwise recycle.

[alp227]

58. What is going on with these flawed gallup and pew polls?

Those organizations' polls about various topics political or not are widely cited in scholarship about American opinion.

[KamaAina]

60. Not only that, there's been a flood of brand-new polls

like Gravis Marketing, which are cited as the true gospel by the M$M, and which all seem to have ties to the reich-wing.

[alp227]

61. Gravis really trolled the media like that?

Ryan Holiday must have gone into politics!

[wordpix]

62. I smell Bain in the air

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. I wonder if this poll ...

asked whether these "likely voters" plan to vote early?

I suspect, of course not ... cuz it would make it difficult to square its results with polling indicating a sizeable President Obama lead in the polling numbers of those that actual HAVE cast their vote.

[progressivebydesign]

22. Remember "likely voter" is not about if someone plans to vote....

It's what the polling organization has decided is the "most likely" to vote in the election, base don historical data and assumptions. The LV model was knocked on its ass in 2008 because the "likely voters" were NOT the only people who showed up.

Likely voters tend to be conservative, middle-aged, and middle class or higher. They do not take into account the people in poor counties in Ohio standing in line for 10 hours to vote...

[skeewee08]

6. I am sick & tired of polls...

[Dawson Leery]

7. Chris Clizza(R-Washington Post) posting outdated polls.

[alp227]

59. He is a regular on msnbc too.

[regnaD kciN]

8. By contrast, doesn't ABC/WaPo have O+5 in the same states?

[heaven05]

9. !!!!!!!!!

this is BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[goclark]

12. Thanks for calming me down

[DaveJ]

11. Are they just clumping all the states together?

Even the worst polls have still had Obama ahead in electoral votes. Con's tend to threaten people around them (as we've seen where multiple companies are now sending out threatening emails to employees) which results in very red geographical segments of the country, where people are too frightened to think for themselves.

I also think many of the pollsters are underestimating how many people use cell phones. Gallup is using 6/10 landlines which seems high to me. Younger people use cell phones and are more likely to vote for Obama.

[arely staircase]

13. tied among women? that is one messed up sampling

just that impossibility right there shows you they oversampled rw women. because is just imposible.

[OldDem2012]

14. Damn right! Does anyone at Gallup double-check the polling before releasing the data?? nt.

[Bradical79]

65. My mother has been polled at least 10 times

And though she's not Republican, she is an white suburban "house wife" with a land line phone. The calls are always during the day on weekdays too, on the land line. That would probably give you an oversampling of conservative women right there without much effort, if that is how they are primarily doing their calls.

Less and less of the more tech smart younger women (who would be more liberal in general) bother with land lines, are working jobs or out and about, and probably don't bother answering many calls with unknown numbers. Seems like it'll be getting more and more difficult to conduct accurate polling.

It's fairly irrelevant anyway, as a seemingly close race should motivate more to vote, and put a little bit of a since of urgency in the campaign, I think.

[stopbush]

15. This is a bullshit way to look at the race on its face.

Romney will be doing better in some swing states than Obama. That's to be expected. But he needs to win Ohio because Ohio has 18 electoral votes, and he's behind by 5 in THAT swing state.

Taking an average of the swing states is stupid, because what matters is the electoral votes. Romney could be ahead in 8 out of 12 swing states. But if the number of electoral votes in the 4 states he's behind in total more than the electoral votes in the 8 states in which he leads, it doesn't mean squat for his chances.

One might as well say that Obama and Romney are tied if you look at only California and Alabama.

[RBInMaine]

16. Corporate Media SHIT. What else is new.

[graham4anything]

17. if you write that it is completely misleading- why did you publish it with the headline you did?

more from the demoralization of the troops as a political tool

you write yourself on the bottom it is wrong
yet the title suggests it is

I would edit that. Negative titles really affect some people badly.
As we are not republicanlibertarianteapeople, we actually have feelings.

[budkin]

21. If I post to LBN it says I have to use the exact title

[Liberalagogo]

18. I didn't see a pig zoom past my window,

And Satan said it was a pretty toasty 1,000 degrees were he is.

So, my guess this is utter BS.

[Ash_F]

19. There is the Post I know :)

I thought they were a unusually tough on Republicans today. I guess they thought they needed to balance it out.

[benld74]

20. And NOW something is effing with Polls? I dont believe any of them any more,,,,,

imagine what mr n mrs joe voter feel like

[wtmusic]

23. Wow...must have been that soup kitchen stunt by Ryan

A real roll-up-yer-sleeves and get it done guy, Congressman Ryan is

[Spitfire of ATJ]

26. "the poll shows Romney running even with Obama among women"

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

[HockeyMom]

37. Yeah, Women have very short memories

I can tell you what I wore on a certain occasion 50 years ago. My husband couldn't tell you what he did last Saturday. Yeah, right.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

40. Ya ever get the feeling these guys only hang around other guys?

[wordpix]

63. and I forgot I'm pro-choice, it just slipped my mind

[budkin]

27. REPEAT: This is an OLD poll being paraded as a new one (Oct. 5-11)

I just posted this to point out the absurdity of it. We should NOT freak out about this one!

[Unknown Beatle]

28. This worries me

because the wingnuts will use this as an excuse if they steal the election. They will point to bogus polls that show that Mitt Twit was ahead.

What happened to honesty in people? Christian Conservative wingnuts are liars to the first degree.

[LiberalElite]

29. careful now

You're supposed to keep your worries to yourself here or else they're all over you like white on rice.

[hrmjustin]

39. lol I am sorry that is happening to you guys now. welcome to both of you to DU

[budkin]

30. There's too much time left for that... Obama will pull ahead before the election

Especially after his improved debate performances.

[underpants]

35. Obama campaign exposes this "outlier"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014267819

[sling438]

36. Nate Silver finds it faulty

Says the sampling is faulty.

[LW1977]

38. I call bullshit

On the bright side, Nate Silver has the Presidential campaign going back in the right direction

[Mojo2]

42. 538

Lets hope Nate is right

[hrmjustin]

43. I am loving all the new posters in here welcome to du and the gallup poll is bull.

[TM99]

46. Let's hope this is inaccurate

I am concerned because I remember all to well wondering how the hell G.W. Bush got the nominee and then how the hell G.W. Bush was able to become president.

I can just no longer underestimate the stupidity and lack of awareness of the American population as a whole.

[Honeycombe8]

47. Here's what I think the deal is.

OP says it's an old poll. Everything I've looked at says 10/15/12.

I'm guessing that some or many of the women most likely to vote for Obama are judged NOT to be "likely" voters. Maybe they are or aren't likely voters. I don't know. But I'm guessing that's part of the issue.

Since this is an AVERAGE of ALL "swing" states, I'm guessing that Romney has some great numbers in a couple of states that skews the average.

Here are the supposed swing states, and who's ahead in them, as of 10/15/12, per the "Poll Tracker," which was a link in the article in the OP:

CO............ROMNEY lead (47.7......47)
FL.............ROMNEY (49.4.....46.6)
IOWA........Obama
MICH........Obama
NC............ROMNEY (50%...45.3%)
NH............Obama
NM............Obama (51.8....41.3)
NEV..........Obama
OH............Obama
PA............Obama
VA............Obama
WIS..........Obama

Look at North Carolina.

About the female vote tie, one article states: "But a word of caution is necessary," Eichenberg adds. "Although swing states share many similarities, President Obama's support among women is holding up well in some of them and less well in others. For example, his support among women is largely unchanged since the first debate in Ohio and Wisconsin, but it is definitely down in Colorado, Virginia and Florida." http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/

The article further states: Benenson says Gallup's likely voter screen includes questions that make it harder for those who move frequently to be counted as likely voters. That includes some groups that tend to vote Democratic, including young people, city dwellers and those who rent rather than own their homes. "This could explain why there is a big shift towards Republicans when they move from registered to likely voters," he says.

FINALLY....THE RESULTS ARE STATED INCORRECTLY, ACCORDING TO THIS ARTICLE. The CORRECTED results are:

Correction: This story has been revised after incorrect numbers were discovered in a statistical analysis that calculated the standing among likely voters. The correct numbers show that Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 50%-46% among likely voters in the swing states, not by 51%-46%. Women are divided 49% for Obama, 48% for Romney, not tied at 48% each. And men support Romney by 52%-44%, not by 54%-42%.

[budkin]

48. It IS old... read the breakdown on USA TODAY

http://m.usatoday.com/article/news/1634791?articlePage=2

Taken between Oct 5th and Oct 11

[Honeycombe8]

53. Oh, ZING! I didn't catch that! That TOTALLY changes things, doesn't it?

Well, the other irregularities and explanations still stand. Even so....ZING!

[John2]

51. North Carolina

You said look at North Carolina. I believe North Carolina has been the victim of Gravis MarKeting and ARG. I think Public Policy Polling is very accurate on North Carolina. They have done about 27 Polls in all with their latest out just last night. None of their Polls have shown North Carolina outside of the 3 point margin for either candidate. The High Point Poll is just bad period. It had over a five point margin error with less than 300 voters. They took two very small samples and combined it within two weeks.One had Obama way ahead and the last one with Romney way ahead. So Romney got a bounce with a sample of about 300.

PPP's latest Poll had it a two point margin and Obama with about a four point lead among women. The Gallup Poll makes me skeptical because of the examples they give with women. One example was a retired women 72 years old. Apparently she had a high income level. I assume she was white. That is not a typical profile of an Obama supporter. The women out of Wilson North Carolina is 42 and white. Obama only received 38 percent of the vote among white women in North Carolina. His best category of whites in North Carolina is in the 18-29 group. So she doesn't fit the profile of a Obama supporter in North Carolina. Most of his supporters are around those colleges and Universities, not in those rural areas or small North Carolina towns. Just remember also, Obama got 100 percent of the African American female vote in North Carolina, which was unheard of. That is how he carried the women's vote in North Carolina. The only way Gallup can find out if he lost support among women in North Carolina would be to ask who they voted for in 2008. If it was McCain, then it didn't tell you anything. north Carolina is a repeat of 2008. It can go either way in my opinion. Throw out all those other Polls and just monitor PPP. You get 27 Polls saying the same thing, that Poll is showing consistency. It has to be accurate.

[Honeycombe8]

54. Thank you very much. Very interesting. I'll pass it on to my friends, too. nt

[davidpdx]

52. On the bright side look at it this way, there are only really 3 states which are dead wrong

Colorado, Florida and NC. Obama is up in Colorado, Florida and NC are quite a bit closer then the poll shows.

[wordpix]

64. thanks, feeling better

[AverageJoe90]

49. Shoddy-ass journalism. It's become part-and-parcel, once again.

Hell, this is actually worse than in the '50s. This is Gilded Age territory now, fellas.

[smirkymonkey]

50. Really? Nobody has polled me or any of my female (or male) freinds here in Boston.

We are all anti-Romney and are obviously not counted into the into these figures. We all only have cell phones. I wonder if that could be why Romney is polling so high. I don't know one person who is voting for him in this state. Everyone hates him in MA.

[Liberalynn]

56. Lots of Women Hate Mittens in NY State too

but we don't count cause we are not a swing state. I am voting for the President any way and definitely for Kathy Hochul and Kirsten Gillibrand.

[Cicada]

55. Sample small

If the national sample is 850 then the swing state part is very small. Easy to get off by sampling error.

[ldf]

57. if the people are convinced it is close

then it can be stolen.

and if the election is questioned, they will then use the "polls" to back up the outcome.

i know it would be fought by almost everyone, but if i was a politician, and i thought that the results of my election was going to be stolen, i would ask every single person that voted for me to agree to put it in writing, and have it notarized. the "right to a secret vote" is how they get away with this crap.

i would do whatever is necessary to get the support to go over every single voter list, match for signatures of voters, and ask them to verify their vote. i wouldn't expect the cooperation of the republicans, but would only need enough of the democrats to prove it was stolen. and all it would take is a few precincts to prove it was stolen.

and if it was stolen, EVERYONE involved, whether pollsters, voting machine manufacturers, software developers, EVERYONE, would be charged with treason and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

and to accomplish this i would DEMAND that the democratic party help this verification process.

if our party can't make sure the elections reflect the will of the people, they are useless. actually, they are even worse, they are part of the problem.



i can dream, can't i?

[Tutonic]

66. Is he still providing "services"

to Andrea Greenspan?