Romney’s Bounce Isn’t Helping in Senate Races, Polls Show
Source: New York Times
-snip-
There is little sign, however, that Mr. Romneys rebound has translated into races for the Senate. Although Republicans have made modest gains in a few Senate races, the polls have been poor for them on the whole. Some races have already gotten away from them, while others are on the verge of being lost.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now gives Republicans just about a 16 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. This is a precipitous drop from just two months ago. On Aug. 19, the forecast put their odds at close to 62 percent.
Emblematic of Republicans problems is Florida, a state where Mr. Romney has made considerable gains in the polls and where their Senate candidate, Representative Connie Mack, had drawn nearly even this summer with the Democratic incumbent, Bill Nelson. But Mr. Mack fell behind in the polls in September, and two of the four polls published since the presidential debate had Mr. Nelson with a double-digit lead. Another poll showed Mr. Mack down by 5 points, despite giving Mr. Romney a 7-point lead in the presidential race.
The Republican candidate in Ohio, State Treasurer Josh Mandel, has followed a similar trajectory to Mr. Mack, with most surveys showing the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, with a solid lead. In Michigan, the Republican candidate, former Representative Peter Hoekstra, fell behind in the race early and now lags by double digits.
Three other races remain highly competitive but are showing the Democratic candidate with a more consistent lead in the polls.
Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/us/politics/romneys-bounce-isnt-helping-in-senate-races-polls-show.html?_r=0
lalalu
(1,663 posts)He got a bounce from republicans in red states. Big deal. They were republican anyway.
zbdent
(35,392 posts)Obama's clock as the LEAD STORY the next morning.
Later on, when everybody's had their fill of talk about the debate, then the quiet voices in the "saner" "lbm" started mentioning, in almost a whisper, that Mitt lied ...
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)DinahMoeHum
(21,771 posts)FORWARD.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)and frankly I hate negative motivation. Don't be complacent, don't be cocky. That's not motivation. That's just fear: be prepared for failure, just in case, you know, it happens, don't jinx... that's fear not encouragement.
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)I can't see people, who would normally vote Repub, turning away from repubs just to vote for Mittens. I don't care who you trust in polling, I don't buy that the race is this close. But heck, maybe I'm in serious denial.
joanbarnes
(1,721 posts)Harmony Blue
(3,978 posts)trying to actually create a bounce.
Populist_Prole
(5,364 posts)In typical circular logic, they subtly made it an already assumed base theme to a larger point...and I call bullshit.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Using fucking GRAVIS as the first indication that Romney got a bounce, and it suddenly drove the narrative. They changed to reporting the Likely Voter number more heavily, which is not reality.... and started picking the polls to push that showed Romney getting a bounce. There is NO fucking way that anyone who would vote for ROmney, would vote for a Democratic Senator. Not happening.
The media needs a horse race desperately. They are in the business to make money from people clicking and watching their stories. I knew this was coming when I saw a headline the other day just before the first debate: "If Obama doesn't deliver at the debate, we'll finally have a horse race"
lalalu
(1,663 posts)That is exactly what has been going on.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)And Brown leading Warren by 5, in Mass? RW poll has O only up by 4 in Maine, and forth.
Now the RW polls have Mittens over O in swing states such as VA & CO. FL up, NH tied. All of which to make it look like its close.
Vote, Vote, Vote and get your family and friends out to vote. If you run across a tea bot polling solider and he or she confronts you be polite but don't take any shit!
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)And an unprecedented gap between registered and likely voters, which brings the models into question.
A virtuous performance on Tuesday, and Obama re-takes the lead across the board.
southmost
(759 posts)to prepare us for the planned election theft
Pokoyo
(22 posts)Her debate performances have been awesome.
lovuian
(19,362 posts)which is screw the worker poor elderly children and military
it has one agenda Greed and promoting the Rich 1%
Capitalism is dead
DallasNE
(7,402 posts)Shows a little different picture. It shows one Senate race has moved from likely Dem to leans Dem and five races have moved from leans Dem to tossup. There "no tossup" map shows a pickup of 1 seat for the GOP and the Dem's with a 53-47 edge, down from a 54-46 edge.
The State with the biggest movement toward Romney is Florida where Romney's Medicare message must have made a big dent with seniors -- the gutting $716 billion from Medicare is selling to seniors and it doesn't help that the fact checkers say Romney is half right even though not one dime is being cut from Medicare. But the fact checkers don't seem to understand or care that the sole reason Medicare compensation can be reduced is because providers don't have as much uninsured care to offset -- care that is partially paid for by Medicare.