Romney’s Bounce Isn’t Helping in Senate Races, Polls Show

[trailmonkee]

Source: New York Times

-snip-

There is little sign, however, that Mr. Romney’s rebound has translated into races for the Senate. Although Republicans have made modest gains in a few Senate races, the polls have been poor for them on the whole. Some races have already gotten away from them, while others are on the verge of being lost.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now gives Republicans just about a 16 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. This is a precipitous drop from just two months ago. On Aug. 19, the forecast put their odds at close to 62 percent.

Emblematic of Republicans’ problems is Florida, a state where Mr. Romney has made considerable gains in the polls and where their Senate candidate, Representative Connie Mack, had drawn nearly even this summer with the Democratic incumbent, Bill Nelson. But Mr. Mack fell behind in the polls in September, and two of the four polls published since the presidential debate had Mr. Nelson with a double-digit lead. Another poll showed Mr. Mack down by 5 points, despite giving Mr. Romney a 7-point lead in the presidential race.

The Republican candidate in Ohio, State Treasurer Josh Mandel, has followed a similar trajectory to Mr. Mack, with most surveys showing the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, with a solid lead. In Michigan, the Republican candidate, former Representative Peter Hoekstra, fell behind in the race early and now lags by double digits.

Three other races remain highly competitive but are showing the Democratic candidate with a more consistent lead in the polls.


Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/us/politics/romneys-bounce-isnt-helping-in-senate-races-polls-show.html?_r=0

[lalalu]

1. The whole bounce for Romney is questionable.

He got a bounce from republicans in red states. Big deal. They were republican anyway.

[zbdent]

3. Don't forget the "liberally-biased media" proclaiming NATIONALLY that Romney cleaned

Obama's clock as the LEAD STORY the next morning.

Later on, when everybody's had their fill of talk about the debate, then the quiet voices in the "saner" "lbm" started mentioning, in almost a whisper, that Mitt lied ...

[lalalu]

4. True

[progressivebydesign]

8. and from Gravis, which has been exposed as a fraud. nt

[DinahMoeHum]

2. Let's not get cocky, folks. Keep On Pushing.

FORWARD.

[Maximumnegro]

13. Who the heck is feeling cocky right now?

and frankly I hate negative motivation. Don't be complacent, don't be cocky. That's not motivation. That's just fear: be prepared for failure, just in case, you know, it happens, don't jinx... that's fear not encouragement.

[justiceischeap]

5. Which makes me wonder about his bounce

I can't see people, who would normally vote Repub, turning away from repubs just to vote for Mittens. I don't care who you trust in polling, I don't buy that the race is this close. But heck, maybe I'm in serious denial.

[joanbarnes]

6. What bounce?

[Harmony Blue]

9. Exactly it is a manufactured meme

trying to actually create a bounce.

[Populist_Prole]

11. Exactly my thoughts too

In typical circular logic, they subtly made it an already assumed base theme to a larger point...and I call bullshit.

[progressivebydesign]

7. That's because ROmney's bounce is fake. It's been manufactured in the media by picking polls..

Using fucking GRAVIS as the first indication that Romney got a bounce, and it suddenly drove the narrative. They changed to reporting the Likely Voter number more heavily, which is not reality.... and started picking the polls to push that showed Romney getting a bounce. There is NO fucking way that anyone who would vote for ROmney, would vote for a Democratic Senator. Not happening.

The media needs a horse race desperately. They are in the business to make money from people clicking and watching their stories. I knew this was coming when I saw a headline the other day just before the first debate: "If Obama doesn't deliver at the debate, we'll finally have a horse race"

[lalalu]

10. You nailed it.

That is exactly what has been going on.

[Iliyah]

12. Doesn't one of the right wing polls have Mandel one point behind Brown, OH?

And Brown leading Warren by 5, in Mass? RW poll has O only up by 4 in Maine, and forth.

Now the RW polls have Mittens over O in swing states such as VA & CO. FL up, NH tied. All of which to make it look like its close.

Vote, Vote, Vote and get your family and friends out to vote. If you run across a tea bot polling solider and he or she confronts you be polite but don't take any shit!

[Mutiny In Heaven]

14. Soft support.

And an unprecedented gap between registered and likely voters, which brings the models into question.

A virtuous performance on Tuesday, and Obama re-takes the lead across the board.

[southmost]

15. questionable polls are the October surprise for this election cycle

to prepare us for the planned election theft

[Pokoyo]

16. Warren is actually doing very well

Her debate performances have been awesome.

[lovuian]

17. The people are waking up to the Republican agenda

which is screw the worker poor elderly children and military

it has one agenda Greed and promoting the Rich 1%
Capitalism is dead

[DallasNE]

18. Realclearpolitics

Shows a little different picture. It shows one Senate race has moved from likely Dem to leans Dem and five races have moved from leans Dem to tossup. There "no tossup" map shows a pickup of 1 seat for the GOP and the Dem's with a 53-47 edge, down from a 54-46 edge.

The State with the biggest movement toward Romney is Florida where Romney's Medicare message must have made a big dent with seniors -- the gutting $716 billion from Medicare is selling to seniors and it doesn't help that the fact checkers say Romney is half right even though not one dime is being cut from Medicare. But the fact checkers don't seem to understand or care that the sole reason Medicare compensation can be reduced is because providers don't have as much uninsured care to offset -- care that is partially paid for by Medicare.

[blkmusclmachine]

19. Was Romney's bounce faked ??

Hmmm.