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Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:27 PM

Poll: Biden up 7 on Trump in Pennsylvania

Source: Politico

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a seven-point lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday.

Of the likely Pennsylvania voters polled, 51 percent preferred the former vice president compared to 44 percent who said they backed Trump. Just 4 percent of the 1,324 Pennsylvanians surveyed were undecided, and the poll had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

The survey was conducted between Oct. 23 and Oct. 27 — largely prior to the fatal shooting of Walter Wallace on Monday by police in Philadelphia and the ensuing nights of protests and unrest. Trump has sought to capitalize on the fears of violence and chaos among suburban voters in the wake of the event as part of his closing message in the state.

While Thursday’s findings are favorable to Biden in a state that both campaigns believe may prove to be the pivotal votes in winning the Electoral College, they are slightly tighter than other Quinnipiac surveys produced earlier this month that had Biden ahead by 8 and 13 points, respectively.



Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-biden-up-7-on-trump-in-pennsylvania/ar-BB1awdum?li=BBnb7Kz

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Reply Poll: Biden up 7 on Trump in Pennsylvania (Original post)
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Oct 29 OP
beachbumbob Oct 29 #1
Thekaspervote Oct 29 #2
regnaD kciN Oct 29 #3
pat_k Oct 29 #5
pat_k Oct 29 #4
BumRushDaShow Oct 29 #6
FakeNoose Oct 29 #7

Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:55 PM

1. Pa, Wisconsin, Michigan are out of reach of trump as long as the voters

vote and votes are all counted. Will not be close. Period.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:59 PM

2. So according to this poll trump would have to have all undecideds and the MOE be 100% in his

Favor just to be even with Biden!!

Not likely

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 07:02 PM

3. My only caution would be...

...that, as 538 has pointed out, Quinnipiac has had a definite Democratic "lean" this election cycle, so that +7 may be overstating it a bit. Right now, 538 still has a +5.1 average margin for us.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 07:13 PM

5. And I would add. . .

. . . that we can't discount "vote subtraction" tactics, which cannot be captured in voter preference polls.

It is tragic, but we need a large enough percentage of Biden votes cast to overcome suppression.

I'm very cautiously optimistic. My dual hopes are that:

1. Dem vote is not suppressed by overconfidence and discouraging lines (we applaud the people waiting, but I have no doubt that some are discouraged)

2. Trump's repugnant and chaotic antics suppress enthusiasm and keeps enough people who assert they are voting for him home.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 07:04 PM

4. I like fivthirtyeights "The winding path to victory"

I like fivthirtyeights "The winding path to victory" (about halfway down this page). It provides vote margins based on polls rated on quality. Also provides both vote margins and probability a state will be a "tipping point."

They have Biden up 5 in PA -- Not quite as good as 7%, but at least beginning to get beyond the reach of theft by "vote subtraction" tactics.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 08:03 PM

6. "Trump has sought to capitalize on the fears of violence and chaos among suburban voters"

What they all seem to miss is that the VAST MAJORITY of BLM and criminal justice reform "protestors" WERE (white) suburbanites. And they not only came into the cities to do so, but they realized that they should also protest in their OWN suburban communities and by golly, they sure as hell did!

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 08:47 PM

7. Pennsylvania Early Voting Statistics as of today



Here's the link to the interactive map on Github: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Please note that we don't have "early voting" other than mailed ballots. The polls to vote in person are only open on November 3rd. So this is what we've got until Tuesday.

The county that looks almost white is Butler County where 80,000 mailed ballots were "lost." There's been very little early voting in Butler County as a result.

Edit to add: I'm thinking at least some of the registered Republicans are going to be votes for Biden. We shouldn't automatically assume they'll vote for Chump because people are disaffected. For sure the majority of "unaffiliated" voters are going for Biden. Some of those 3rd party voters might be votes for Biden as well.


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