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Thu Oct 29, 2020, 05:23 PM

The Latest: England Puts 2M People Under Virus Restrictions

Source: AP News

LONDON — Another 2 million people in England are being placed under the government’s highest level of restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus, as case numbers rise and measures are gradually tightened across the country.

Civic leaders in the West Yorkshire region of northern England say it will be placed under Tier 3 restrictions -- the highest of three levels -- starting Monday. Under the measures most pubs and some other businesses must close and people are barred from meeting indoors with members of other households.

The area, which includes the cities of Leeds and Bradford, joins a large swath of northern England that is already under the restrictions. The British government hopes its regional approach can avoid the need for a new nationwide lockdown.

But its scientific advisers say that may be the only way to stop a resurgent virus. A large, ongoing study into the COVID-19 epidemic in England estimated Thursday that there are about 96,000 new cases every day and that the outbreak is doubling in size every nine days.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/international-news-virus-outbreak-islamabad-pakistan-01a8ef294e325341499f64954fdf0a3d

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Reply The Latest: England Puts 2M People Under Virus Restrictions (Original post)
appalachiablue Oct 29 OP
Laelth Oct 29 #1
appalachiablue Oct 29 #2
Laelth Oct 29 #3
appalachiablue Oct 29 #4
muriel_volestrangler Oct 29 #5
Laelth Oct 29 #6
Buckeye_Democrat Oct 29 #7
Grokenstein Oct 29 #10
milestogo Oct 29 #8
BigmanPigman Oct 29 #9
Buckeye_Democrat Oct 30 #11
muriel_volestrangler Oct 30 #12
BigmanPigman Oct 30 #14
T_i_B Oct 30 #13

Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 05:48 PM

1. That's a horrific number of new cases per day. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:12 PM

2. it is, 96,000 new cases a day

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Response to appalachiablue (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:21 PM

3. What are we at? 80,000? Maybe?

We have roughly 5 times the population of the UK. We would have to have 480,000 new cases per day to have the same number of new cases per capita.

I feel really bad for the UK. Hope they can get some new, progressive government out of this.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:26 PM

4. Yes, about 80K per day US, staggering; Poor UK, EU, US, World!

Johnson has to go, poor UK. I lived in Cambridge for a semester, really enjoyed England. Went back for several business trips and would love to go again, but unlikely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/europe-clamps-down-regeneron-trial-shows-promise-virus-update

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Response to Laelth (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:49 PM

5. It's the estimate of total cases, not just those that testing finds

Using https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus , we find the new cases found are 322 per million in the UK, and 225 per million in the USA. The 'share of positive tests' is about the same for both countries - just over 7%, which implies we're doing the same (not very good) job of finding cases. So this probably isn't "6 times as bad as the USA", more like one and a half. Which isn't comforting, but it's not the deep crisis it could seem.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 06:57 PM

6. That does give me some comfort, actually. Thank you. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 07:03 PM

7. Wow, they're getting hit hard too!

I bet they'll improve faster than us, though, at least while Trump is still in office.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 10:55 PM

10. I don't know about that.

Their shitshow is being run by Boris Johnson, who is basically 65% Donald Trump with worse hair and 35% Rob Ford. Plus, Tories' mirror of the GOP's "justify anything to pwn teh libz" attitude is aggravated by the ever-lowering bar for Brexit expectations.

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Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 07:03 PM

8. Thats amazing. And their population is much smaller than ours.

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Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Thu Oct 29, 2020, 09:42 PM

9. Not true according to Worldometers,

in fact way, way off.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Today..............New Cases...............Total Cases per 1 M pop.

UK...................23,065.......................14,195
US...................91,530.......................27,779

I read the article and don't know where these experts' estimates come from.

96,000 vs 23,000 is a big difference.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:58 AM

11. Ah, I missed the word "estimate" earlier too.

If our experts estimated the number of new infections each day, our numbers would be far higher too because the small number of tests certainly isn't catching them all!

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 09:09 AM

12. The 96,000 comes from a study that tests asymptomatic people at random

Nearly 100,000 people are catching coronavirus every day in England, a major analysis suggests.

The study, by Imperial College London, says the pace of the epidemic is accelerating and estimates the number of people infected is now doubling every nine days.
...
The React-1 study is highly influential because it is the most up-to-date assessment of Covid-19 in the country, with the last swabs taken only on Sunday and nearly 86,000 volunteers taking part.

A further 24,701 new coronavirus cases were reported on Thursday - but the Imperial College study randomly tests asymptomatic people to estimate the number of overall new infections.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

These results represent an interim report for round 6 of REACT-1. The overall weighted national prevalence of infection in the community was 1.28% (1.15%, 1.41%). This was significantly higher than a prevalence of 0.60% (0.55%, 0.71%) as measured in September to early October, and the highest observed prevalence of any round of this study since this study started reporting in May.

Data collected between 16 and 25 October suggests the national reproduction number, R, is 1.56 (1.27, 1.88) in comparison with the estimate for Round 5 in September, of 1.16 (1.05, 1.27).

An increase in prevalence has been observed in all age groups between rounds 5 and 6, with the highest relative increase in the 55 to 64 year old age group. Infection rates in people aged 65 years and over more than doubled with an unweighted prevalence of 0.75% (0.65%, 0.86%) from 16 to 25 October, compared with 0.33% (0.28%, 0.38%) from 18 September to 5 October. The highest unweighted prevalence was still seen in 18 to 24 year olds at 1.71% (1.31%, 2.24%) which has increased from 1.21% (0.98%, 1.50%) in September to early October. A substantial increase was noted in the prevalence of swab positivity in both primary and secondary aged children.

The prevalence of infection has increased in all regions since September and early October 2020. Unweighted prevalence of infection was highest in the North West at 1.91% (1.66%, 2.20%) and Yorkshire and The Humber at 1.83% (1.52%, 2.19%) and in the North East at 1.35% (1.01%, 1.81%). However based on estimates of regional R from data obtained between 16 and 25 October alone, epidemic growth is no longer fastest in the North.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/react-1-study-of-coronavirus-transmission-october-2020-interim-results/react-1-real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-of-coronavirus-covid-19-in-october-2020

The data on confirmed cases only becomes meaningful when it can be interpreted in light of how much a country is testing. This is why we built the global database on COVID-19 testing. You can switch to the testing data right in this chart.

Particularly informative is the metric ‘share of positive tests’ – which shows you the share of tests that are confirming a test. This rate should ideally be very low. If it is high a country is likely not identifying a large share of cases. If it is low then a country tests in proportion with the size of its outbreak and the number of confirmed cases is closer to the number of total cases. [For more details on this metric see here.]

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

And we see the latest figures for share of positive tests are:

Spain 12.9%
France 12.4%
Italy 11.5%
UK 7.8%
USA 6.4%
Germany 4.9%
Canada 1.9%

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 09:26 AM

14. Oh, I see how they got those numbers now. Thanks!

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Response to appalachiablue (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 09:22 AM

13. It's difficult to keep up with which areas are under what tier of lockdown

Which makes things increasingly confusing.

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