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Tue Aug 25, 2020, 11:55 PM

Dollar dogged by economic worries, yuan gains on trade deal relief

Source: Reuters

FOREIGN EXCHANGE ANALYSIS AUGUST 25, 2020 / 10:23 PM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO


TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses against most currencies on Wednesday as traders braced for U.S. data expected to show a slowdown in durable goods orders and a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The yuan rose toward a seven-month high after U.S. and Chinese trade officials reaffirmed their commitment to a Phase 1 trade deal, which eased concerns about a diplomatic standoff between the world’s two-largest economies.

The greenback took a hit after data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence tumbled to the lowest in more than six years due to concern about the coronavirus-induced job losses.

Traders will look to Powell’s speech on Thursday at the annual Jackson Hole retreat to determine what steps the Fed is willing to take to safeguard a fragile economic recovery.

Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Sam Holmes

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex/dollar-dogged-by-economic-worries-yuan-gains-on-trade-deal-relief-idUSKBN25M05Z



_snip_
Not to worry the country has a SEC of State bilking the country taxpayers riding on plane to give a speech in a another country, then there is a economic advisor that couldn't sell shoe string for flips flops saying that the virus is behind us, and then there is the immigration swearing in, and then the country has a racists son attacking the very people that the traitor had sworn in and everyone is just violating the Hatch Act...............................JFC.............I need a drink, maybe two of them............

November 3, 2020 cannot get here here fast enough.............

14 replies, 1044 views

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Reply Dollar dogged by economic worries, yuan gains on trade deal relief (Original post)
turbinetree Aug 25 OP
sandensea Aug 26 #1
turbinetree Aug 26 #2
sandensea Aug 26 #3
Warpy Aug 26 #4
DFW Aug 26 #5
BlueMTexpat Aug 26 #6
DFW Aug 26 #7
BlueMTexpat Aug 26 #8
DFW Aug 26 #9
BlueMTexpat Aug 26 #10
DFW Aug 26 #11
BlueMTexpat Aug 26 #12
DFW Aug 26 #13
BlueMTexpat Aug 26 #14

Response to turbinetree (Original post)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 12:04 AM

1. Republicans have been trying to destroy the world's faith in the dollar since at least Dubya

So it figures that Orange Amin would put that effort on overdrive.

Their preferred replacement? Gold.

Which, if adopted, would concentrate wealth and power in anyone hoarding tons of gold - but would throw the country in a deep depression (no more fractional banking).

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Response to sandensea (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 12:15 AM

2. Agreed .......................this is just nuts..........

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Response to turbinetree (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 12:32 AM

3. That's them

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Response to turbinetree (Original post)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 12:35 AM

4. I've been wondering just how low the buck's gonna go

but I suppose we'll find out within a couple of months when the virus really starts to hit us. It looks like it will, too, if early figures from schools that have started in person classes--primary to university--are showing.

I was really hoping to be wrong about that.

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Response to turbinetree (Original post)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 03:17 AM

5. The dollar is down about 9% against the euro since March

But $1.18 is nothing compared to the $1.30 and higher we were used to previously. We needed to get it down anyway to help our exports, which were getting really expensive for foreign buyers at $1.08 or less.

It hits me personally, since I am paid in dollars but live in the Euro zone, and it was nice while it lasted, but the jobs of 20 million workers who work for US companies that export need to take priority.

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Response to DFW (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 04:30 AM

6. It's hitting me

where it hurts too, but against the Swiss franc.

The bulk of my retirement savings are USD. My UN pension is paid in CHF, but only after converting from USD. The only good thing is that the USD-CHF exchange rate for my pension is fixed at the beginning of each quarter so that the daily rate changes don't affect the three-month amount. At this rate however, the quarterly rate figure to be projected for the final quarter will not be a good one.

Of course, I will survive. But it's not been fun at all to watch the recent dips.

If the unthinkable happens and the Obscenity in the WH is actually re-elected, I fear that the USD will lose credibility entirely, along with the entirety of our country.

This is not an unfounded belief. Unfortunately.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 05:27 AM

7. The Swiss Franc has been rock solid strong

The Euro is at this point a bunch of paper with nothing behind it. Its strength, like that of the dollar, is due to the fact that lots of people want products made here (cars, wine, whatever), and it is still a huge tourist draw, though more so when tourists are allowed in. Neither pays any interest to speak of these days, so there is no advantage there.

Switzerland is tiny, but EVERYBODY wants to live there, and the cost of living is expensive as hell, due to the franc's strength. It's fine if you are paid in Swiss Francs, and the tax rate there is really low compared to the Euro zone, the UK or the USA. But, if you are paid in dollars, as we are, the cost of living here is a burden. Since the tax rate here in Germany is about double what it is in Switzerland, whatever break I may have here in Germany as far as the cost of living goes is more than washed away by the high tax rate. The top rate here (theoretically 42%, but with add-ons that push it up to an effective 50%) kicks in at a gross income of just €55,961 (about $66,000 at today's rate). In the USA, on the other hand, the top tax rate of 37% doesn't kick in until you have a gross income of over $500,000.

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Response to DFW (Reply #7)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 07:53 AM

8. I know how fortunate I am to

be able to live here. I am so glad that I was able to take advantage of the opportunity when I retired from international organizations work in Geneva and have never regretted it.

But I do have to pinch the pennies more.

My US family members and friends are glad that I am here and I love having them visit or use my apartment as a base for their European travels. I am usually able to travel to the US about twice yearly.

Sadly, this year - after a brief meet-up in Barcelona with US friends who accompanied me back to Switzerland just before the 16 March lockdowns - and who were also able to make their return flights to the US later that week - all other visits and plans had to be cancelled.

Everyone has similar stories, I am sure. 2020 is a "write-off year" in many ways. I hope that it's just a year, but ....

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 09:53 AM

9. Our paths must have crossed in Barcelona

I was there from March 11-14!

Because of the regulations in place about spouses of US citizens being able to accompany their US citizen spouses to the USA, my wife and I were able to do our usual Cape Cod vacation this year, but we were definitely the exceptions to the rule.

I got tested on Monday, August 10th in Dallas (result came back negative on Wednesday, the 12th) and again upon landing in Frankfurt on Friday, the 14th (result came back negative the next day). The one or the other might not have been sufficient to let me skip quarantining upon return, but the timing of the two tests was sufficient, which was vital to me being able to travel to neighboring countries right away. I have a few appointments in France, but Paris was just declared a hot zone again, and I can't afford to lock myself up for two weeks again right now. I lost enough time spending six weeks in the States in July and August, and I have enough to do in Germany, Holland and Belgium to last me for a week anyway. I really need to get back down to Spain, too, but they have a new outbreak in Barcelona, which is exactly where I need to go. Hurry up and wait, although I have enough work to keep me occupied for the next couple of days. My colleague in Geneva has his hands full, so I have no pressing need to run down to CH just now, but if anything involved turns up in the Schwyzerdüütschland, then I'll have to go. Being a true Suisse romand, he speaks not a word of German.

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Response to DFW (Reply #9)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 10:20 AM

10. LOVED Barcelona!

We were indeed there at the same time. It was my first time in that airport. I had booked with EasyJet and ended up following the wrong line out of the airport. So I had to go back in through security again to grab my checked bag. The airport staff were pretty laid back about it and said that events like that were not uncommon. Indeed, I was not alone.

But you were likely working there while I was enjoying the tourist circuit. Among other things, we visited the Sagrada Familia on Thurs, the 12th. It was closed by Friday, as were most other tourist sites.

We took a day trip to Monserrat on Friday and had a wonderful time. But we were lucky. If we had waited until Sat, we wouldn't have been able to do that either. We were booked for a concert at the Palau de la Musica on the 13th, but I received word on the 11th that the concert had been cancelled. We received full refunds, but were bummed about missing the concert. It was probably just as well. But what a beautiful building that is!

We had some excellent tapas and did LOTS of walking. What a lovely city Barcelona is! My travel companions had visited Bilbao, Madrid and Sevilla before their arrival in Barcelona. Fortunately, none of us had any ill effects from our various journeys. We were very lucky.

My July flights to the US were cancelled by the airline and I still have not rebooked.

I am SO glad that I am no longer part of the workforce. Those who still are have all my sympathy and admiration. I really am amazed at how well my children and grandchildren are coping. The youngest kids especially have been so good. Thank heavens for Zoom and the like so that I am able to see them in real time despite the distance!

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #10)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 11:09 AM

11. I lived and went to school in Barcelona in the late sixties

Learned to speak Catalan, which pretty much makes you welcome anywhere there. Up at Montserrat, the local vendors of goat and sheep cheese that set up outside the cathedral treated us (my wife and I were there with two friends from Holland) as usual tourists, trying their best to cope with German, but they suddenly were our best friends when I spoke to them in Catalan, making us try all sorts of samples and cutting the price for us, etc. Franco had been gone for 40 years, but they all still remembered that he had tried to stifle the Catalan culture by forbidding the language in schools, newspapers and TV. An outsider who took the trouble to learn it meant a lot to them, and still does.

I don't get down there as often any more, but every four to six weeks or so, I run down there for the day. I usually have a longer stay in March, which is why I was there for 4 days. On Saturday, the 14th, I was supposed to fly to Madrid and connect there for Düsseldorf, since the usual 19:30 nonstop flight doesn't run on the weekend. Usually the shuttle to Madrid is NEVER late, but this time, it was, and I missed the flight to Düsseldorf. Iberia was wonderful about the mess, though, put me up in a decent hotel and gave me a nonstop to Düsseldorf the next morning. The other people on the plane were all resident of Germany who had missed their connections from all parts of peninsular Spain and the various islands (Balearic and Canary). We had to fill out a form for the German government before landing, which no one asked us for at the airport when we landed. This happened again 12 days ago when I landed at Frankfurt from Chicago. I filled out this big form, and no one wanted it when I landed. European bureaucracy at its best: they ask for more paperwork than they can possible handle.

As it is, I am trembling for the next few weeks. My passport expires in January, and during my 6 weeks in the USA, no one-not Boston, not Dallas, not Washington--said they knew a way for me to renew it in less than 4 to 6 months. I said I worked in a different country every day, and couldn't be stuck in the USA for that period of time. They said I'd be better off trying at the embassy in Berlin or the Consulate in Frankfurt. It's not like the old days when you could just walk in to the embassy or a consulate and walk out with a new passport. Now you have to make an appointment online.

The Consulate's website said that in circumstances such as mine, an applicant for a renewal could hold on to their current passport. Great! Only when I got there, the case worker said no, that was no longer possible. I was sure he was lying, and just didn't want to ask to find out. They may have all been US citizens, but not ONE of the case workers there had an American accent in their English. To get through the security check, I even had to speak Spanish, to the relief of the Dominican security officer. The guy handling my renewal was from the BIWI area, and I didn't want to jeopardize my visit by antagonizing him. As it was, every two minutes, he had to get up to ask someone for authorization and approval, etc. These people are there to say "no," or else make people wait. He was somewhat confused that I had read their website thoroughly and had actually brought EVERYTHING they asked for. They are not used to that, it seems.

He said the new passport would be here in three to four weeks. That is maddening, but it beats 6 months. He said they could give me a document signed by the consul attesting to the fact that I had submitted a valid US passport and was waiting for a renewal. I insisted that he attach it to a photocopy of my current passport (which I had also supplied), so that if I was ever questioned at some border, I could prove WHICH passport I had submitted for renewal. I was also required to bring a prepaid DHL or Fedex envelope so they could send me the new passport (they are made up in Washington) when it came in to the consulate. I needed to fill out the FedEx AWB, which I did, along with our company account number, so the US government didn't have to pay for it. I couldn't fill in the date of shipping, of course, as I couldn't know in advance when they would be sending me my new passport. Guess what? He didn't want to let me submit the form without filling in the date!! I asked if he was OK with me ordering him to send it on the date I filled in. No, that didn't work, either. I "suggested" he go ask if he or the consulate could fill in the date themselves when they were ready to send it to me. He had to go ask THAT, too!! His higher-up said, yes, that made sense, so they accepted my paperwork and sent me on my merry way. Now, I have to hope that nothing gets lost in the mess that is government paperwork, and that I get a passport back, instead of some notice saying I now have neither an old passport nor a new one, but thanks for trying.

As a contrast, the last time I was in one of these installations was 1985 at the US Embassy in Bonn. Our second daughter had just been born, and I went down to the Bonn to get her a US birth certificate, a Social Security Number and her first US passport. I walked out of there less than two hours later with all three documents! Those were the days, eh?

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Response to DFW (Reply #11)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 04:03 PM

12. Thanks for the fun read!

As for the US passport complications, I was able to renew mine in 2016, just before the Trump disaster. I am so happy that I haven't had to do anything like that during his tenure in office.

I did apply for the Global Entry Pass in 2017, to avoid waiting in line at BWI, which is my usual port of entry. It was apparently still early enough that Trump's minions hadn't entirely destroyed the Department of State as it was a fairly painless process. After receiving word from the US Embassy in Bern that the service would be available, I was able to book an on-line appointment with a DHS representative at the US Consulate in Geneva. The entire experience went well and I received my pass within two weeks.

When I travel, I always take my Swiss resident permit with me. The last few times I've left from the US, I've had to produce the permit before they would even let me board the plane. Of course, that permit is good for the whole of the Schengen area as well so I don't need any other visa.

It used to be so easy for someone to travel with a US passport. Not anymore.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #12)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 04:24 PM

13. Ah, yes, that all-important Schengen country residence card

Don't leave home without it!

I never applied for Global entry, since half (or more) of my trips to the States are with my wife, and "furriners" can't get Global entry. Of course, nowadays, she can't travel to the States at all without me. If our daughter in the USA should have a baby and my wife wants to go there immediately, I will have to go with her, although she can return by herself if she wants to stay longer, and with my German residence/work permit, I can return to Germany any time. But we are two of a VERY small group of US citizens that enjoy that status.

If you don't have a round trip plane ticket that originates and terminates in the USA, they will always ask you for a date you plan to return (and show a plane ticket) or else for a foreign residence permit. It was that way before Covid-19, but now, since Americans aren't welcome here without it (or accredited diplomatic status), it's a necessity.

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Response to DFW (Reply #13)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 05:45 PM

14. ...

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