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Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:35 AM

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

Economic News Release USDL-20-1503

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, August 7, 2020

Technical information:
Household data: cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2020


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

In July, the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.4 million to 16.3 million. Despite declines over the past 3 months, these measures are up by 6.7 percentage points and 10.6 million, respectively, since February. (See table A-1. For more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of this news release.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in July for adult men (9.4 percent), adult women (10.5 percent), teenagers (19.3 percent), Whites (9.2 percent), Asians (12.0 percent), and Hispanics (12.9 percent). The jobless rate for Blacks (14.6 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 1.3 million in July to 9.2 million, about half its April level. In July, the number of permanent job losers and the number of unemployed reentrants to the labor force were virtually unchanged over the month, at 2.9 million and 2.4 million, respectively. (Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to beginning their job search.) (See table A-11.)

Among the unemployed, those who were jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 364,000 to 3.2 million in July, and the number of persons jobless 15 to 26 weeks rose by 4.6 million to 6.5 million. By contrast, the number of unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks fell by 6.3 million to 5.2 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, was little changed over the month. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate, at 61.4 percent, changed little in July, following increases in May and June. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, rose by 1.4 million in July to 143.5 million. The employment-population ratio rose by 0.5 percentage point to 55.1 percent but remains lower than in February (61.1 percent). (See table A-1.)

In July, the number of persons who usually work part time rose by 803,000 to 24.0 million, while the number who usually work full time, at 119.5 million, was little changed. (See table A-9.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 619,000 to 8.4 million in July, reflecting a decline in the number of people whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions (-658,000). The number of involuntary part-time workers is 4.1 million higher than in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This group includes persons who usually work full time and persons who usually work part time. (See table A-8.)

In July, the number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job declined by 463,000 to 7.7 million; this measure is 2.8 million higher than in February. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who currently want a job, persons marginally attached to the labor force fell by 492,000 to 2.0 million in July. These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, numbered 665,000 in July, essentially unchanged from the previous month. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, less than the increases of 4.8 million in June and 2.7 million in May. In July, nonfarm employment was lower than its February level by 12.9 million, or 8.4 percent. The largest employment increases in July occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care. (See table B-1. For more information about how the establishment survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of this news release.)

Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 592,000, accounting for about one-third of the gain in total nonfarm employment in July. Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 502,000, following gains of 2.9 million in May and June combined. Despite the gains over the last 3 months, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 2.6 million since February. Over the month, employment also rose in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+100,000).

Government employment rose by 301,000 in July but is 1.1 million below its February level. Typically, public-sector education employment declines in July (before seasonal adjustment). However, employment declines occurred earlier than usual this year due to the pandemic, resulting in unusually large July increases in local government education (+215,000) and state government education (+30,000) after seasonal adjustment. A July job gain in federal government (+27,000) reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census.

In July, retail trade added 258,000 jobs. Employment in the industry is 913,000 lower than in February. In July, nearly half of the job gain in retail trade occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+121,000). By contrast, the component of general merchandise stores that includes warehouse clubs and supercenters lost jobs (-64,000).

Employment in professional and business services increased in July (+170,000) but remains 1.6 million below its February level. The majority of July's gain occurred in temporary help services (+144,000).

In July, the other services industry added 149,000 jobs, with most of the increase occurring in personal and laundry services (+119,000). Since February, employment in other services is down by 627,000.

In July, health care added 126,000 jobs, with employment growth in offices of dentists (+45,000), hospitals (+27,000), offices of physicians (+26,000), and home health care services (+16,000). Job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-28,000). Employment in health care is down by 797,000 since February.

In July, employment in social assistance increased by 66,000, with child day care services accounting for most of the gain (+45,000). Employment in social assistance is 460,000 lower than in February.

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 38,000 in July, following an increase of 87,000 in June. Despite job gains over the past 2 months, employment in the industry is down by 470,000 since a recent peak in January. In July, employment rose in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000), air transportation (+16,000), and couriers and messengers (+9,000).

Manufacturing employment increased by 26,000 in July. An employment gain in motor vehicles and parts (+39,000) was partially offset by losses in fabricated metal products (-11,000), machinery (-7,000), and computer and electronic products (-6,000). Although manufacturing has added 623,000 jobs over the past 3 months, employment is 740,000 lower than in February.

Financial activities added 21,000 jobs in July, with most of the gain in real estate and rental and leasing (+15,000). Since February, employment in financial activities is down by 216,000.

In July, construction employment changed little (+20,000), following job gains of 619,000 in May and June combined. However, employment in the industry remains 444,000 below its February level.

Mining continued to shed jobs in July (-7,000), reflecting a loss in support activities for mining (-11,000). Mining has lost 127,000 jobs since a recent peak in January 2019, although nearly three-fourths of this decline has occurred since February 2020.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $29.39, following large changes in recent months. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees decreased by 11 cents to $24.63 in July. The large employment fluctuations--especially in lower-paid industries--over the past several months complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in July. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.7 hour to 39.7 hours, and overtime increased by 0.3 hour to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.0 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 26,000, from +2,699,000 to +2,725,000, and the change for June was revised down by 9,000, from +4,800,000 to +4,791,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined was 17,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 4, 2020, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).


__________________________________________________________________________________

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on July 2020 Establishment
and Household Survey Data

Data collection for both surveys was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic. In the establishment survey, approximately one-fifth of the
establishments are assigned to four regional data collection centers for
collection. Although these centers were closed, interviewers at these centers
worked remotely to collect data by telephone. Additionally, BLS encouraged
businesses to report electronically. The collection rate for the establishment
survey--which had a longer-than-average collection period in July--was 78
percent, higher than the average for the 12 months ending in February 2020.
The household survey is generally conducted through in-person and telephone
interviews. However, for the safety of both interviewers and respondents, the
vast majority of interviews were done by telephone, with in-person interviews
conducted on an extremely limited basis in some areas of the country. The
household survey response rate was 67 percent, up from the rate of 65 percent
in June but much lower than the average rate of 83 percent for the 12 months
prior to the pandemic.

In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all
or any part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as
employed, even if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are
temporarily or permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are
not counted as employed, even if they are continuing to receive benefits.

In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, unemployed,
or not in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions
about their activities during the survey reference week (July 12th through
July 18th). Workers who indicate they were not working during the entire
survey reference week and expect to be recalled to their jobs should be
classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. As in recent months, a large
number of persons were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in July.

Since March, household survey interviewers have been instructed to classify
employed persons absent from work due to temporary, coronavirus-related
business closures or cutbacks as unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and
Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest that this group still
may include some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been
classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.

The share of responses that may have been misclassified was much smaller in
June and July than in prior months.

For March through June, BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment
rate would have been had misclassified workers been included. Repeating this
same approach, the overall July unemployment rate would have been about 1
percentage point higher than reported. However, this represents the upper
bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size
of the misclassification error.

According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted
as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to
reclassify survey responses.

More information is available at
www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2020.htm.
__________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________

2020 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data
to be released on August 19, 2020

Each year, the establishment survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive
counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment
insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. On
August 19, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. (ET), BLS will release the preliminary estimate
of the upcoming annual benchmark revision. This is the same day that the first-
quarter 2020 data from QCEW will be issued. Preliminary benchmark revisions for
all major industry sectors, as well as total nonfarm and total private
employment, will be available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm.

The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January
2021 Employment Situation news release in February 2021.
__________________________________________________________________________________



Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions
Employment Situation Technical Note
Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age
Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status
Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Access to historical data for the "A" tables of the Employment Situation News Release
Access to historical data for the "B" tables of the Employment Situation News Release
HTML version of the entire news release


Read more: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Reply Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2% (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2020 OP
progree Aug 2020 #1
maddogesq Aug 2020 #26
progree Aug 2020 #28
BumRushDaShow Aug 2020 #2
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2020 #4
BumRushDaShow Aug 2020 #6
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2020 #8
BumRushDaShow Aug 2020 #14
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2020 #18
progree Aug 2020 #13
BumRushDaShow Aug 2020 #16
progree Aug 2020 #19
BumRushDaShow Aug 2020 #22
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2020 #21
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2020 #3
underpants Aug 2020 #5
Yavin4 Aug 2020 #20
underpants Aug 2020 #23
durablend Aug 2020 #7
Iliyah Aug 2020 #11
Freethinker65 Aug 2020 #9
bucolic_frolic Aug 2020 #10
UpInArms Aug 2020 #12
progree Aug 2020 #15
SergeStorms Aug 2020 #17
progree Aug 2020 #24
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2020 #25
progree Aug 2020 #27

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:37 AM

1. LINKS TO SOME BLS DATA SERIES NUMBERS AND GRAPHS

Everyone of these data series comes with a table and graph.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

# Employed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
2020: 5892 5787 7140 23078 20985 17750 16338 (in thousands)

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000


# Nonfarm Employment in thousands (Establishment Survey, Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

2019: 269 1 147 210 85 182 194 207 208 185 261 184
2020: 214 251 -1373 -20787 2725 4791 1763
Feb and March of 2020 are Corrected. June and July are Preliminary. In thousands


# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, Monthly changes:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

2019: -198 239 -125 -45 148 304 198 549 403 246 -8 267
2020: -89 45 -2987 -22369 3839 4940 1350
Jan and Feb of each year are affected by changes in population controls. In thousands


# Black unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
First 7 months of 2020: 6.0 5.8 6.7 16.7 16.8 15.4 14.6   Trump: "what have you got to lose?"

# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
First 7 months of 2020: 4.3 4.4 6.0 18.9 17.6 14.5 12.9

# White unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
First 7 months of 2020: 3.1 3.1 4.0 14.2 12.4 10.1 9.2

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062


ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

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Response to progree (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:54 AM

26. As your economic gloom and doom Dawg...

I see three things:

First, 1/3 of the so-called job gains were leisure and hospitality. Most of those jobs are not high-paying gigs, and were basically rehires when some states reopened.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-july-2020-in-one-chart.html

Second, the U6 is at 16.5, a recession level number to say the least. And as someone pointed out earlier in this thread, the U6 doesn’t include everyone.

Third, there are still 32M souls with continuing claims.

If I see Donny so much as think about beating his man breasts I swear to JHC I will throw the tele into the nearest wall.

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Response to maddogesq (Reply #26)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:21 PM

28. Yup, I agree. Today's report is yet another in a series of "horrible but not as horrible as

Last edited Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:54 PM - Edit history (1)

expected" stream of economic "good news" reports.

It was me who pointed out that the U-6 counts only people who have actively sought work in the last 12 months -- if it's been any longer than 12 months, then they aren't counted in any BLS unemployment statistic (#15).

Also the 32.1 million continuing claims (#13).

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:38 AM

2. Beat me by a few seconds!

Good morning!

U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July as it worked to recover from the coronavirus pandemic

The U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs during the month of July, sending the unemployment rate down for the third straight month — a drop that fell in line with economist predictions and pointed to the recovery that began before infections started ticking up.

The unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent. The figures are drawn from a weeklong survey that takes place the week of the 12th each month — the middle of July.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/07/july-2020-jobs-report/

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:40 AM

4. Oh, sorry. I was waiting for you, but I didn't see you. Next month....

And good morning.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #4)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:44 AM

6. That's 'cause I was trying to see if WaPo had any more than those initial 2 paragraphs



I figured you'd have the source info all ready to roll anyway!

TGIF!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:48 AM

8. Nope. I don't get it ahead of time. I don't see it until 8:30 a.m. NT

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:00 AM

14. Right but you still had to copy all that for the post!

Meanwhile I was trying to refresh and refresh to get a link to an article.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #14)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:14 AM

18. I wish that the BLS would go back to the old way of doing things.

News organizations would get the release early so that they could write their stories, make any needed corrections, and have them ready to go at 8:30 a.m.

I don't work at BLS, so I don't know how far in advance the news organizations got the release -- a half-hour, an hour, two hours -- beats me.

At any rate, we wouldn't be waiting for them to get it, then write it up, then have it vetted, then hit "send."

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:59 AM

13. 16.3 million unemployed but 32.1 million continuing claims for unemployment benefits

Washington Post:
The unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent. The figures are drawn from a weeklong survey that takes place the week of the 12th each month — the middle of July.


Also the middle of July: week ending July 18:

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf -- released yesterday August 6
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 18 was 32,118,678, an increase of 1,302,816 from the previous week. There were 1,707,267 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.


Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
2020: 5892 5787 7140 23078 20985 17750 16338 (in thousands)

So, wait, what? 32.1 million are claiming benefits (some media reports say "collecting benefits" ), but only 16.3 million are unemployed per the BLS LNS13000000

To be counted as unemployed by the BLS, one has had to have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks and be ready and willing to take a job.

Will be interesting if the fucking worthless media ever tackles this one.

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Response to progree (Reply #13)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:08 AM

16. "Will be interesting if the fucking worthless media ever tackles this one."

The GOP will use those convoluted figures as talking points to claim that those other 16 million unemployed are "gaming the system" and thus there should be no more UE supplement extensions.

Appears they are keeping a "standard" set of UE books separate from their "COVID-related" set of UE books.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #16)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:15 AM

19. The thing is, the BLS 16.3 million is just a household survey where they ask a question about how

long has it been since you actively sought work (or whatever the question is), or maybe they include the 4 week figure, but anyway, the household survey counts someone as unemployed if have told the survey-taker that they actively sought work in the past 4 weeks.

As for the unemployment insurance benefit numbers, the 32.1 million, I thought they actually sought proof of job-seeking activity, not just a "say so". And I don't think you can tell the state unemployment office that you didn't do diddly squat for 3 1/2 weeks.

So it kind of seems like the statistics ought to be the other way around.

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Response to progree (Reply #19)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:33 AM

22. From what I gather

at least from my state (PA) and those surrounding it, the state UE systems were set up so that people needing to receive benefits had to actually login (or I guess call if they had no computer/internet access) WEEKLY to "renew", and many apparently didn't realize that and ended up being dropped off. Meanwhile those trying to call weekly had difficulty even getting through.

And yes, I believe that "actively looking" threshold is there and either not correctly answering that question (notably in the electronic systems) actually resulted in a number of people being kicked off.

So I think in reality, there are more than 32 million out there who would be eligible, including those who are likely legitimately unemployed, but who couldn't navigate a way into the state UE system (whether via a computer system or by contact with a state service rep) and/or who didn't understand the "weekly renewal" requirements.

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Response to progree (Reply #13)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:26 AM

21. I'd be relieved to see the DOL tackle this one.

Last edited Fri Aug 7, 2020, 09:06 AM - Edit history (2)

The weekly unemployme[link:https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142554593|nt benefits numbers come from one building, and the monthly payroll employment and unemployment rate numbers come from another building.

You'd think they could have a Teams meeting about this.

U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.186 million, lowest level of the coronavirus pandemic

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release
Connect with DOL at https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, August 6, 2020

COVID-19 Impact

The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report includes
information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment
Compensation claims.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending August 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,186,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 1,434,000 to 1,435,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,337,750, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,368,500 to 1,368,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.0 percent for the week ending July 25, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 25 was 16,107,000, a decrease of 844,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 67,000 from 17,018,000 to 16,951,000. The 4-week moving average was 16,628,250, a decrease of 413,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 16,750 from 17,058,250 to 17,041,500.

{snip}

UNADJUSTED DATA

{snip}

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 18 was 32,118,678, an increase of 1,302,816 from the previous week. There were 1,707,267 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

{snip the rest of the eleven-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp
Weekly Claims Data
https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at (202) 693-7828 (voice) or (800) 877-8339 (federal relay).

http://www.dol.gov/
https://www.dol.gov/agencies/oasam/civil-rights-center/internal/reasonable-accomodations-resource-center

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210

Release Number: USDL 20-1532-NAT

Program Contacts:
Thomas Stengle: (202) 693-2991
Media Contact: (202) 693-4676

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:39 AM

3. Links to earlier reports:

Good morning, all.

Wed Aug 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Jul 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jun 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 8, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, April 3, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, February 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thursday, January 9, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2020: {today's report}

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2020:

Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 2,760,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment falls by 701,000 in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2020:

The U.S. labor market showed strength in February, adding 273,000 jobs

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2020:

U.S. adds 183,000 private-sector jobs in February, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2020:

The economy added 225,000 jobs in January, showing continued strength

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2020:

ADP says 291,000 private-sector jobs created in January, largest gain in 4 years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2019:

Economy adds 145,000 jobs in December as unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2019:

U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2019:

Labor market remained strong in November as U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2019:

U.S. private sector job growth slows down sharply in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2019:

U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October as GM strike displaced workers; jobless rate ticks up

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2019:

U.S. economy added just 136,000 jobs in September, in fresh sign economy is cooling

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 135,000 Jobs in September

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2019:

U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2019:

Survey: Businesses added a solid 195,000 jobs in August

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2019:

U.S. Added 164,000 Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2019:

ADP says 156,000 private-sector jobs added created in July

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:44 AM

5. Good news. So much for disincentive to work huh?

Completely to be expected.

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Response to underpants (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:21 AM

20. Not really. 10% UE is really bad.

Any double digit UE number is really, really bad.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #20)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:30 AM

23. Yeah I know.

BLS puts the total at 16.3 M

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:45 AM

7. I'm assuming this throws water on the $600

"Everything looks good and getting better! People need to go back to work!"

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Response to durablend (Reply #7)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:56 AM

11. Actually no .....

It counters the republicans talking point that the unemployed are lazy. Many unemployed went back to their jobs. Although with the infections and suffering and deaths rising, and 1.2 million just last week applied for unemployment.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:51 AM

9. Wait until conditions of accepting government PPP loans have expired...

...and employees are once again allowed to be furloughed.

And what are these jobs that have come back? It is great people are returning to work, but are these predominantly low wage service jobs coming back? I understand the recovery needs to start somewhere, but service jobs will disappear again if we do not get the pandemic under control.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:52 AM

10. Saving the banks and elites by printing money and buying financial assets

Workers will pay in the form of inflation. They won't get out of this depression without 6% inflation, and workers will be enslaved to it all.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 07:59 AM

12. U.S. adds 1.8 million jobs in July as hiring slows after fresh coronavirus outbreak

... snip ...

The number of peopled employed by government showed an 301,000 increase, but the outsize gained was partly a statistical sleight of hand.

Many school workers such as bus drivers and cafeteria workers who would normally be laid off in July were sent home after schools closed in March. The government’s normally ho-hum process of seasonal adjustments made it look like hiring rose simply because those layoffs did not take place in July as usual.

The federal government also hired more Census workers.


... snip ...

Although the official jobless rate fell again for the third month in a row, it’s quite likely the true level of unemployment is higher.

A broader measure of unemployment known as the U6 suggests the “real” rate was 16.5% in July, a bit lower from 18% in the prior month. The U6 rate includes workers who can only find part-time jobs and those who’ve become too discouraged to look for jobs because so few are available.

More at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-adds-18-million-jobs-in-july-as-hiring-slows-after-fresh-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-08-07?mod=home-page

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Response to UpInArms (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:06 AM

15. The U-6 rate only includes those who have looked for work in the past 12 months

some discouraged workers have not actively sought employment for more than 12 months -- they are not counted in U-6 or any other BLS unemployment measure.

The official unemployment rate, U-3, counts only people who have actively sought employment in the past 4 weeks. If it's been 5 weeks, you are not part of the labor force, you lazy bum. (You're counted in U-6 as long as it hasn't been more than 12 months)

"actively sought employment" means more than just looking at job postings. It means sending out resumes, applying for jobs, etc.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:10 AM

17. Forgive me...

if I refuse to believe any information coming from the Trump mal-administration. Ever.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:44 AM

24. One surprising thing is they compare a lot of their stats to the February levels

using my browser's search function to search your OP for "February", several key statistics are compared to their February levels (given that the survey week was about the 2nd week of the month of February, was pretty much pre-Covid from an economic standpoint, when, for example the unemployment rate was 3.5%).

For example, to take a few:

In July, the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.4 million to 16.3 million. Despite declines over the past 3 months, these measures are up by 6.7 percentage points and 10.6 million, respectively, since February [up of course is bad for both these statistics -Progree].

The employment-population ratio rose by 0.5 percentage point to 55.1 percent but remains lower than in February (61.1 percent)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, less than the increases of 4.8 million in June and 2.7 million in May. In July, nonfarm employment was lower than its February level by 12.9 million, or 8.4 percent.

In other words, making clear that while the economic statistics have improved in the past couple of months, they are still far from were they were in February. I would think if the BLS people writing this report were captive Trumpist extremists, they wouldn't be making a negative comparison to 5 months ago.

But maybe I'm just a naive dingle-dork falling for their tricks.

I also notice that the Employment to Population ratio of 55.1 percent is the lowest it's been since the early 60's (excepting the previous few Covid months), when formal female labor force participation was much lower than more recent decades

ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

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Response to progree (Reply #24)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 11:52 AM

25. There's no need to search. See the third reply.

Links to earlier reports:

I try to go back a year.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #25)

Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:08 PM

27. Thanks! Oh, I know, I was searching on "February" in your OP to find all the times they reference

February in your OP (the July report).

I keep all the full 42 page reports (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) going back many years. But yeah, your links make it easy to find the past reports and threads.

As an aside, I did a late edit to my post above that noted the Employment to Population ratio, at 55.1% is the lowest its been since the early 1960s (excluding the previous 4 Covid months).

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