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Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:16 PM

Fauci warns of 'really bad situation' if daily coronavirus cases don't drop to 10K by September

Source: the hill



By Justine Coleman - 08/03/20 07:07 PM EDT



Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, warned on Monday that the U.S. could be in a “really bad situation” if the number of new coronavirus cases confirmed daily does not drop to 10,000 by next month.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a livestream interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association that he is basing that number on the expected emergence of the flu in the fall, as well as the return of colder weather, which will likely drive more people indoors, where health experts say COVID-19 spreads easier.

"If we don't get them down, then we're going to have a really bad situation in the fall," Fauci said, according to NBC News.

Currently, the U.S. is seeing between 50,000 and 70,000 new COVID-19 cases identified per day, with a seven-day average of 61,815, according to New York Times data. ..........................................

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/510361-fauci-warns-of-really-bad-situation-if-daily-coronavirus-cases-dont-drop-to



So, far my family has been lucky. We do take precautions

But I am starting to really worry lately. The monster virus seems to be everywhere!

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Reply Fauci warns of 'really bad situation' if daily coronavirus cases don't drop to 10K by September (Original post)
riversedge Aug 3 OP
louis-t Aug 3 #1
In_The_Wind Aug 3 #4
iluvtennis Aug 3 #15
former9thward Aug 3 #2
localroger Aug 3 #5
Mr. Evil Aug 3 #12
appalachiablue Aug 3 #19
Mr. Evil Aug 3 #21
former9thward Aug 3 #20
localroger Aug 4 #24
brewens Aug 3 #3
Midnight Writer Aug 3 #6
Steelrolled Aug 3 #11
regnaD kciN Aug 3 #7
BumRushDaShow Aug 3 #8
I_UndergroundPanther Aug 3 #9
Docreed2003 Aug 3 #10
cloudythescribbler Aug 3 #13
Illumination Aug 3 #14
PSPS Aug 3 #16
Illumination Aug 5 #25
Bernardo de La Paz Aug 3 #18
NickB79 Aug 6 #26
Bernardo de La Paz Aug 6 #27
tclambert Aug 3 #17
BadgerKid Aug 3 #22
Javaman Aug 3 #23
Kaleva Aug 6 #28

Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:18 PM

1. People need to accept the mask.

It's the only way.

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Response to louis-t (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:23 PM

4. +1

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Response to In_The_Wind (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 09:57 PM

15. + 2. And to stay home except for essential outings (groceries, meds, work). nt

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:21 PM

2. A "really bad situation" is what exactly?

It is a totally subjective phrase that 100 people will define in 100 different ways.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #2)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:39 PM

5. Everyone will get the virus.

Two or three million will die. Worse, about twenty to forty percent of the population will effectively get the virus at the same time, toward the end of its explosive growth curve, and several tens of millions will need hospitalization. But there are only less than a million hospital rooms in the US, much less people to staff them, so many more will die who might have lived. (This is what the whole "flattening the curve" thing was always meant to avoid.)

It will happen with great suddenness, going from manageable to overwhelming within the space of a week in much of the country.

That's the bad situation. It's always been the bad situation to fear; the first researchers in China who established its ferocious transmissibility and death rate extrapolated it back in January. It's always been there for anybody familiar with the math to read. And it could have been avoided, but it wasn't, and our window for avoiding it is shrinking while the drama of what we will have to do to stop it is increasing daily.

Personally, I think if the schools are reopened that will be the end of any chance of containing it. It will roll over us like an avalanche leaving the survivors to pick up the pieces and figure how to carry on.

That's what Dr. Fauci is talking about.

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Response to localroger (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 08:51 PM

12. My feeling about reopening schools and universities

is that it is quite possibly the very last thing we should do right now. Young people coming from all over to one university is a recipe for more hot spot outbreaks. Local elementary schools are always a hotbed of infections because little kids are always touching each other, putting things in their mouths and even with the best protocols put in place they just don't understand the gravity of this crisis. High school youth love to congregate in and out of school. Couple that with post adolescence desires and you have another recipe for disaster. So many other issues will arise from this upcoming debacle.

All this so DJT (Doofus Joke Trump) and Jared could turn this into some sort of political ammunition to blame the Democrats and sweep themselves to reelection in November. Craven and depraved.

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Response to Mr. Evil (Reply #12)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:17 PM

19. Did you see this on 2 new studies about children's high transmission:

- Just in time for school, 2 new studies conclude small kids carry & transmit COVID-19 just fine.- Daily Kos, 8/1/20.
https://democraticunderground.com/1016264477

*New research indicates that, although they don’t suffer the same degree of ill effects as adults, children aged 5-17 are actually bastions of COVID-19 contagion to other children, as well as adults such as parents, grandparents, and teachers. More on that in a moment.. The real danger is that statements like DeVos’ are regurgitated over and over by unqualified bloviators in right-wing media, until they worm their way into school board meetings across the country, ultimately influencing the decisions that determine the fate of the nation’s schoolchildren.
* Which brings us back to that research that contradicts both DeVos and Trump. Two separate new studies examining the transmission of COVID-19 by younger children now strongly indicate those statements are categorically false. In fact, the exact opposite seems to be the case: Small children spread the COVID-19 virus quite efficiently, even moreso than adults.

* William A. Haseltine, a healthcare contributor for Forbes, reports: Two new studies, though from different parts of the world, have arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well. The first study, published in JAMA, is peer-reviewed. As Haseltine notes, researchers examined findings from a pediatric hospital in Chicago, the Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital. The Chicago study examines the concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx, or the upper region of the throat that connects to the nasal passages, of children and adults. According to the results, children 5 years and younger who develop mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms have 10 to 100 times as much SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx as older children and adults.

Whenever these young children cough, sneeze, or shout, they expel virus-laden droplets from the nasopharynx into the air. If they have as much as one hundred times the amount of virus in their throat and nasal passages as adults, it only makes sense that they would spread the virus more efficiently. The study also shows that children from the ages of 5 to 17, also with mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms, have the same amount of virus in the nasopharynx as adults age 18 and above. - The Chicago study did not specifically examine the rate of transmission by small children, but rather its efficiency. The fact that a child has 100 times as much of the virus in nasal swab samples strongly points to a very efficient rate of transmission, just like any other cold or virus a child catches and spreads in school or day care. As reported in The New York Times this week, the lead author of the study was quite clear on this.

“It definitely shows that kids do have levels of virus similar to and maybe even higher than adults,” Dr. Heald-Sargent said. “It wouldn’t be surprising if they were able to shed” the virus and spread it to others...

Read More,
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/8/1/1965794/-Just-in-time-for-school-two-new-studies-conclude-small-kids-carry-and-transmit-COVID-19-just-fine

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Response to appalachiablue (Reply #19)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:55 PM

21. I missed this. Thanx so much for the heads up.

This should be on every media outlet. Repeated hourly! Except, of course, Focksnooze where they'd feel more productive by showing how raindrops can be slippery on pavement.

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Response to localroger (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:39 PM

20. You see that is the problem.

If someone asked Dr. Fauci if everyone would get the virus and two or three million would die, would he say "yes"? I really doubt it. I think he would give another subjective vague answer than no one could hold him to.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #20)

Tue Aug 4, 2020, 08:00 AM

24. If he just told the truth, everyone would ignore him

As the head of the fired-by-Trump pandemic task force said years ago, "Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist, and everything we do after will seem inadequate." We're still in the "seems alarmist" phase. But not for long.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:23 PM

3. Kiss Christmas as we know it goodbye for this year at least. "The Trump That Killed Christmas"

could be something someone more creative than me could work with.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:50 PM

6. I don't see any progress at all toward that goal. It's worse than ever and no plan I can see.

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Response to Midnight Writer (Reply #6)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 08:41 PM

11. From what I can see, we are coming down having peaked about a week ago.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 08:03 PM

7. Funny how all I'm seeing is "Fauci says schools and colleges should reopen"...

...at the major news sites.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #7)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 08:26 PM

8. Yes, it seems CNN found that their only take-away

(because apparently they wanted to write an article about "schools" so they used that as a jumping point )

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

Everything they include in the article regarding what he "said" has not been done and/or is difficult, if not impossible for any school to do consistently.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 08:30 PM

9. I am so grateful

My apartment and all the other apartments here have thier own HVAC system. Apparently it's a housing requirement.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 08:33 PM

10. I think we've already gone way beyond "bad situation"

If we had had a national response that adequately handled the initial outbreak, then we would most certainly be in a better place. But no, we Americans know better and our independence steak is matched only by our undaunted stupidity. We allowed a non-political disaster to become political and here we are.

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Response to Docreed2003 (Reply #10)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 09:41 PM

13. there is a temptation to see the fault in "America" rather than in Trump & the Repuglicans

It is identifiable pernicious influences at work (many of which have to be fought elsewhere also, and ARE -- but more effectively) in our society and not "we Americans". Individualism, independence and assertion of freedom are all important values to me -- but they have nothing to do with the organized stupidity & perversity that brings the country down. Canadians are not SO different from Americans that you can explain the different outcomes by merely appealing to national culture. Under a government as progressive (relatively, mind you) as Canada's, Americans wd do much better, more similar to their than our current situation

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 09:43 PM

14. C-19 is raging out of control now. We should be in shut down mode again...

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Response to Illumination (Reply #14)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:04 PM

16. You're right. The rush to "re-open" threw away all the gains made during the lockdown.

The real experts are saying the only proper thing to do is "Shut It Down, Start Over, Do It Right"

https://uspirg.org/sites/pirg/files/USP_Public-health_final-letter-shutdowns_V4.pdf

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Response to PSPS (Reply #16)

Wed Aug 5, 2020, 10:30 PM

25. Hello PSPS

PSPS,
Anyone listening to the experts knew it was a bad idea to listen to the non-expert Trump about re-opening. It was just common sense 101! And now children are going back to school & bringing C-19 home to their families & communities All the while Trump has been encouraging this. I find it suspicious that he had nothing to say about bounties on American troops. So as I've stated before is there a bounty on dead Americans for Putin also? Seems very plausible. He certainly has no compassion for all the needless suffering of 175,000+++ Americans. Take care.

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Response to Illumination (Reply #14)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:08 PM

18. Actually ... US 7day rate of infection is going down for about a week now. Fauci still right, tho.nt

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Response to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #18)

Thu Aug 6, 2020, 05:49 AM

26. It shot back up over 55,000 again this week

It was declining with two days at 45,000, but some of that relates to the fact testing has also fallen. Florida and the East Coast shut down as storms hit, and reagent and lab shortages hit as well.

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Response to NickB79 (Reply #26)

Thu Aug 6, 2020, 06:27 AM

27. The 7 day rate is not the daily rate. It is a moviing average of the last 7 days.


It hit a peak of 69,150 on July 25, which is below the single-day peak of daily new cases of 78,446 on July 24.

The 7 day average is now down to 58,924 yesterday Aug 5 and has declined every day since July 25.

The 7 day average is used to smooth out weekly variations because Sundays and Mondays tend to report lower numbers due to less work being done on weekends. That's the Aug 2 and 3 values you mention.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/



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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:07 PM

17. Hell, Florida by itself exceeds 10,000 new cases most days.

And that's in the summer when the snowbirds have fled north for cooler weather. Some of my relatives will have to think real hard whether or not to return to Florida in the fall.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:34 PM

22. Through reduced testing, we will appear to have

DT pats himself on the back.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:43 PM

23. I've been stocking on dry foods. Vacuum packed them and have been storing them

I have put in my orders for my winter vegetable plants and should get those at the end of october.

greens and root vegetables.

this is going to be one fucking hard winter.

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Response to Javaman (Reply #23)

Thu Aug 6, 2020, 06:49 AM

28. I'm maintaining about a 45 days supply of food on hand for my wife and me.

The garden is producing now so we'll be canning produce along with using fresh, That along with fishing ought to extend my supply to 60 days.

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