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Thu Jul 2, 2020, 10:34 PM

In Arizona, Nearly 1 In 4 Coronavirus Tests Now Comes Back Positive

Source: NPR

In Arizona, Nearly 1 In 4 Coronavirus Tests Now Comes Back Positive
July 2, 20207:46 PM ET
Will Stone

Arizona is contending with one of the worst outbreaks of any state as coronavirus cases surge again across the United States. Hospitals are bracing for a wave of seriously ill patients, and health officials are pleading with the public to wear masks and heed guidance about social distancing even in the absence of a second stay-at-home order.

Arizona was quick to relax restrictions on businesses and reopen its economy, beginning in early May. Most new cases have come in just the past month. Maricopa County, with its Phoenix metro area, now ranks as one of the top five U.S. counties for total cases.

"Our foot is still on the accelerator, conditions are deteriorating and they're going to continue to deteriorate at least for the next two to three weeks," said Dr. Joe Gerald, a professor of public health at the University of Arizona who runs modeling on the coronavirus outbreak.

Gerald says the state is essentially doubling the number of cases every two weeks. Over the past week, it has averaged about 3,500 new cases a day. On Wednesday, Arizona hit a new record, with more than 4,800 positive cases. More than 1,700 people have died.

Read more: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/02/886949217/nearly-one-in-four-arizona-coronavirus-tests-positive-now

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Reply In Arizona, Nearly 1 In 4 Coronavirus Tests Now Comes Back Positive (Original post)
PSPS Jul 2 OP
Hock_Mir_Keyn_Chinek Jul 2 #1
sandensea Jul 2 #4
ProfessorGAC Jul 3 #8
at140 Jul 2 #2
PSPS Jul 2 #3
Terry_M Jul 2 #5
at140 Jul 3 #7
vsrazdem Jul 3 #6

Response to PSPS (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 10:37 PM

1. A positivity rate approaching 25% is absolutely hair-raising.

 

It begins to bring to mind scenes from Resident Evil.

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Response to Hock_Mir_Keyn_Chinek (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 10:55 PM

4. But without Milla Jovovich, alas.

Seriously though - I always thought the dystopian, Umbrella Corporation-controlled fascist state in the series, is more or less what we'd have if Republicans had their way.

That, combined with Handmaid's Tale-level fundamentalism.

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Response to Hock_Mir_Keyn_Chinek (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 05:14 PM

8. It Is!

We had a couple weeks in Illinois that averaged >30%!
But, when mitigation got taken seriously, it plummeted.
This week's average positivity was 2.6.
That makes Florida, for this week, 10x worse than Illinois.

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Response to PSPS (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 10:38 PM

2. What is the ratio of deaths/positive tests in AZ

That ratio is the critical number.

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Response to at140 (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 10:42 PM

3. I see. So death is the only possible undesirable yet avoidable outcome? Got it.

And there's also the "just old people" trope too. Don't forget that.

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Response to at140 (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 11:16 PM

5. why are we talking about deaths?

deaths lag 1-2 weeks behind hospitalizations and those lag a week behind detections...
So looking at positive tests today and comparing them to deaths today doesn't work.
I guess you could look at tests from 3 weeks ago and deaths today to figure out what % of people were getting by untested 3 weeks ago...?

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Response to Terry_M (Reply #5)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 12:33 PM

7. For simple reason, death from covid-19 is a serious situation, requiring

serious hospital & medical resources before death occurs.
Mild infections and Asymptomatic infections do not cause havoc on the medical community resources.
I now believe I was infected during the cruise which ended at beginning of March.
Both me and my wife had this unusual dry cough for 2 weeks. In beginning of March covid-19 was not big news, so we just ignored the cough. We don't run to the doctor each time we get a cold or cough. My cough will usually bring up some mucous (productive cough). That coughing in March was unusual. It was most likely a mild attack from covid-19. My wife was more tired than usual. I exercise daily and did not feel all that tired.

Point is our infections were not a drain on medical resources and if we were tested in March, it would have added to the infection statistics, but it was no big deal at all. If anything, we may have acquired some immunity from future infections.

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Response to PSPS (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 12:58 AM

6. Our death rate has been lower than other states, but I think that will be picking up.

They sent out the COVID guidelines for critical triage, and with more hospitalizations and less beds and equipment, the death rates will go up. They are sending in 500 nurses from other states because our personnel are burned out and it will get worse as they have to make decisions on who gets care and who doesn't. So if you are a senior citizen with comorbidities, your screwed. If you have an average expected life span of 5 years, you might as well say your goodbyes now.

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