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Thu Jul 2, 2020, 07:30 AM

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

Economic News Release USDL-20-1310
Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday, July 2, 2020

Technical information:
Household data: cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JUNE 2020


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent in June, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 3.2 million to 17.8 million. Although unemployment fell in May and June, the jobless rate and the number of unemployed are up by 7.6 percentage points and 12.0 million, respectively, since February. (See table A-1. For more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of the news release.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in June for adult men (10.2 percent), adult women (11.2 percent), teenagers (23.2 percent), Whites (10.1 percent), Blacks (15.4 percent), and Hispanics (14.5 percent). The jobless rate for Asians (13.8 percent) changed little over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 4.8 million in June to 10.6 million, following a decline of 2.7 million in May. The number of permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 588,000 to 2.9 million in June. The number of unemployed reentrants to the labor force rose by 711,000 to 2.4 million. (Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to beginning their job search.) (See table A-11.)

The number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 1.0 million to 2.8 million in June. Unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks numbered 11.5 million, down by 3.3 million over the month, and accounted for 65.2 percent of the unemployed. By contrast, the number of persons jobless 15 to 26 weeks and the long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) saw over-the-month increases (+825,000 to 1.9 million and +227,000 to 1.4 million, respectively). (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate increased by 0.7 percentage point in June to 61.5 percent, but is 1.9 percentage points below its February level. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, rose by 4.9 million to 142.2 million in June. The employment-population ratio, at 54.6 percent, rose by 1.8 percentage points over the month but is 6.5 percentage points lower than in February. (See table A-1.)

In June, the number of persons who usually work full time increased by 2.4 million to 118.9 million, and the number who usually work part time also rose by 2.4 million to 23.2 million. (See table A-9.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons declined by 1.6 million to 9.1 million in June but is still more than double its February level. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This group includes persons who usually work full time and persons who usually work part time. (See table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 8.2 million, declined by 767,000 in June but remained 3.2 million higher than in February. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Persons marginally attached to the labor force--a subset of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job--numbered 2.5 million in June, little different from the prior month. These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, numbered 681,000 in June, essentially unchanged from the previous month. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following an increase of 2.7 million in May. These gains reflect a partial resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus pandemic in April and March, when employment fell by a total of 22.2 million in the 2 months combined. In June, nonfarm employment was 14.7 million, or 9.6 percent, lower than its February level. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply in June. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services. Employment continued to decline in mining. (See table B-1. For more information about how the establishment survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of the news release.)

In June, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 2.1 million, accounting for about two-fifths of the gain in total nonfarm employment. Over the month, employment in food services and drinking places rose by 1.5 million, following a gain of the same magnitude in May. Despite these gains, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 3.1 million since February. Employment also rose in June in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+353,000) and in the accommodation industry (+239,000).

In June, employment in retail trade rose by 740,000, after a gain of 372,000 in May and losses totaling 2.4 million in March and April combined. On net, employment in the industry is 1.3 million lower than in February. In June, notable job gains occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+202,000), general merchandise stores (+108,000), furniture and home furnishings stores (+84,000), and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+84,000).

Employment increased by 568,000 in education and health services in June but is 1.8 million below February's level. Health care employment increased by 358,000 over the month, with gains in offices of dentists (+190,000), offices of physicians (+80,000), and offices of other health practitioners (+48,000). Elsewhere in health care, job losses continued in nursing care facilities (-18,000). Employment increased in the social assistance industry (+117,000), reflecting gains in child day care services (+80,000) and in individual and family services (+28,000). Employment in private education rose by 93,000 over the month.

Employment increased in the other services industry in June (+357,000), with about three-fourths of the increase occurring in personal and laundry services (+264,000). Since February, employment in the other services industry is down by 752,000.

In June, manufacturing employment rose by 356,000 but is down by 757,000 since February. June employment increases were concentrated in the durable goods component, with motor vehicles and parts (+196,000) accounting for over half of the job gain in manufacturing. Employment also increased over the month in miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing (+26,000) and machinery (+18,000). Within the nondurable goods component, the largest job gain occurred in plastics and rubber products (+22,000).

Professional and business services added 306,000 jobs in June, but employment is 1.8 million below its February level. In June, employment rose in temporary help services (+149,000), services to buildings and dwellings (+53,000), and accounting and bookkeeping services (+18,000). By contrast, employment declined in computer systems design and related services (-20,000).

Construction employment increased by 158,000 in June, following a gain of 453,000 in May. These gains accounted for more than half of the decline in March and April (-1.1 million combined). Over-the-month gains occurred in specialty trade contractors (+135,000), with growth about equally split between the residential and nonresidential components. Job gains also occurred in construction of buildings (+32,000).

Transportation and warehousing added 99,000 jobs in June, following declines in the prior 2 months (-588,000 in April and May combined). In June, employment rose in warehousing and storage (+61,000), couriers and messengers (+21,000), truck transportation (+8,000), and support activities for transportation (+7,000).

Wholesale trade employment rose by 68,000 in June but is down by 317,000 since February. In June, job gains occurred in the durable goods (+39,000) and nondurable goods (+27,000) components.

Financial activities added 32,000 jobs in June, with over half of the gain in real estate (+18,000). Since February, employment in financial activities is down by 237,000.

Government employment changed little in June (+33,000), as job gains in local government education (+70,000) were partially offset by job losses in state government (-25,000). Government employment is 1.5 million below its February level.

Mining continued to lose jobs in June (-10,000), with most of the decline occurring in support activities for mining (-7,000). Mining employment is down by 123,000 since a recent peak in January 2019, although nearly three-fourths of the decline has occurred since February 2020.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 35 cents to $29.37. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees decreased by 23 cents to $24.74 in June. The decreases in average hourly earnings largely reflect job gains among lower-paid workers; these changes put downward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.5 hours in June. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.5 hour to 39.2 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.2 hour to 33.9 hours. The recent employment changes, especially in industries with shorter workweeks, complicate monthly comparisons of the average weekly hours estimates. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 100,000, from -20.7 million to -20.8 million, and the change for May was revised up by 190,000, from +2.5 million to +2.7 million. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined was 90,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for July is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 7, 2020, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).


_______________________________________________________________________________________


Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on June 2020 Establishment and Household Survey Data


Data collection for both surveys was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In the establishment survey, approximately one-fifth of the data is assigned to four
regional data collection centers. Although these centers were closed, interviewers at
these centers worked remotely to collect data by telephone. Additionally, BLS
encouraged businesses to report electronically. The collection rate for the
establishment survey in June was 63 percent, lower than collection rates prior to the
pandemic. The household survey is generally collected through in-person and telephone
interviews, but personal interviews were not conducted for the safety of interviewers
and respondents. The household survey response rate, at 65 percent, was about 18
percentage points lower than in months prior to the pandemic.

In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any
part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed, even
if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or permanently
absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if
they are continuing to receive benefits.

In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, unemployed, or not
in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions about their
activities during the survey reference week (June 7th through June 13th). Workers who
indicate they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expect to
be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. In
June, a large number of persons were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.

As was the case in March, April, and May, household survey interviewers were
instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to temporary,
coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and
Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest that this group still included
some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as unemployed
on temporary layoff.

The degree of misclassification declined considerably in June. BLS and Census Bureau
staff have been reviewing survey responses that might have been misclassified. The
misclassification hinges on a question about the main reason people were absent from
their jobs. If people who were absent due to temporary, pandemic-related closures
were recorded as absent due to "other reasons," they could have been misclassified.
When interviewers record a response of "other reason," they also add a few words
describing that other reason. The review of these brief descriptions found that the
share of responses that may have been misclassified was much smaller in June than in
prior months. BLS and the Census Bureau are continuing to investigate the
misclassification and are taking additional steps to address the issue.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other
reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical June) had
been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate
would have been about 1 percentage point higher than reported (on a not seasonally
adjusted basis). However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of
misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.

According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as
recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify
survey responses.

More information is available at
www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf.

_______________________________________________________________________________________


_______________________________________________________________________________________


2020 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data to be
released on August 19, 2020


Each year, the establishment survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts
of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month
of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records
that nearly all employers are required to file. On August 19, 2020, at 10:00 a.m.
(ET), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of
the upcoming annual benchmark revision. This is the same day that the first-quarter
2020 data from QCEW will be issued. Preliminary benchmark revisions for all major
industry sectors, as well as total nonfarm and total private employment, will be
available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm.

The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2021
Employment Situation news release in February 2021.

_______________________________________________________________________________________



Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions
Employment Situation Technical Note
Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age
Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status
Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)
Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Access to historical data for the "A" tables of the Employment Situation News Release
Access to historical data for the "B" tables of the Employment Situation News Release
HTML version of the entire news release
The PDF version of the news release
News release charts
Supplemental Files Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Last Modified Date: July 02, 2020

Read more: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



This is a lot more than expected.

Tomorrow's a federal holiday, so BLS is releasing the numbers a day earlier than usual.

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Reply Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1% (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 OP
Squinch Jul 2020 #1
FBaggins Jul 2020 #8
Squinch Jul 2020 #14
rockfordfile Jul 2020 #24
progree Jul 2020 #18
Squinch Jul 2020 #19
bucolic_frolic Jul 2020 #2
BumRushDaShow Jul 2020 #3
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #4
BumRushDaShow Jul 2020 #5
progree Jul 2020 #20
mpcamb Jul 2020 #37
progree Jul 2020 #38
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #6
progree Jul 2020 #7
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #9
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #10
progree Jul 2020 #16
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #17
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #11
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #12
stopbush Jul 2020 #13
yaesu Jul 2020 #15
Wuddles440 Jul 2020 #22
Bengus81 Jul 2020 #23
IronLionZion Jul 2020 #21
Newest Reality Jul 2020 #25
lonely bird Jul 2020 #26
maddogesq Jul 2020 #27
lonely bird Jul 2020 #28
ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #29
progree Jul 2020 #30
ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #31
progree Jul 2020 #32
ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #33
progree Jul 2020 #34
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #35
progree Jul 2020 #36

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 07:32 AM

1. Next month that will be back down. But the stock market

will blithely proceed as if this is a real recovery.

(I just read somewhere - can't remember where so I can't link. Sorry - that the numbers are tabulated from mid-month to mid-month, which means this would not have the re-closure numbers baked in yet.)

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Response to Squinch (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:05 AM

8. Probably not

Reopening in some areas are likely to more than offset closings in areas that got too frisky.

There’s no question that it’s a “real” recovery (at least... to the extent that it has been a real recession). The question is whether even a robust recovery could help enough by the election to resurrect Trump’s campaign.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #8)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:27 AM

14. We'll see whether it is or not. My opinion is that it will drop.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #8)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 09:13 AM

24. trump is a traitor

Majority of Americans get it now.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:41 AM

18. The survey periods

This from the Covid-19 section of the OP

In the establishment survey (which produces the nonfarm payroll jobs numbers -Progree), workers who are paid by their employer for all or any part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed, even if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if they are continuing to receive benefits.

(Most are paid either twice a month or every 2 weeks, some are paid weekly, a few are paid monthly, so the establishment survey numbers pretty much reflect conditions in the first half of June. I saw the percentages somewhere on how many people are paid each way, probably could find it if I looked hard, but don't have it handy -Progree)

In the household survey (which produces the unemployment rate -Progree), individuals are classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions about their activities during the survey reference week (June 7th through June 13th). Workers who indicate they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expect to be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. In June, a large number of persons were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.

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Response to progree (Reply #18)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:44 AM

19. Thank you!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 07:33 AM

2. in a pig's eye

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 07:36 AM

3. WaPo just breaking now

The U.S. economy added 4.8 million jobs in June, but fierce new headwinds have emerged

By Eli Rosenberg and Heather Long
July 2 at 8:31 AM

New government data released Thursday show twin forces pulling on the U.S. economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added 4.8 million jobs last month, based on a survey taken mid-month, a sign of how many businesses were scrambling to emerge from the depths of the recession.

But new data also released Thursday by the Labor Department showed that 1.4 million people filed unemployment claims last week as many businesses reversed themselves and closed again during the surge in coronavirus cases. This trend is continuing and picking up in speed. The previous week, 1.5 million people had filed these claims. This marked the 15th straight week of unemployment claims that exceeded 1 million, a sign that the economic recovery has not taken hold for many Americans.

The data bring into sharper focus the turmoil facing the U.S. economy after many businesses sent workers home in March during the beginning of the spike in deaths caused by the virus. Federal and state officials have stumbled during reopening plans, and now some of the states that reopened the fastest are seeing a large spike in coronavirus cases that are causing them to backtrack swiftly, leading to new job losses.

BLS said the unemployment rate in June declined to 11.1 percent. Last month, it said the unemployment rate was 13.3 percent, but a major misclassification error clouded the report’s accuracy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/02/june-2020-jobs-report/


(ETA - Good Friday eve! )

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 07:40 AM

4. Good morning. I didn't know if you would be around for a Thursday release.

I get to take a turn this month being Trump's stooge.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits come out today too.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 07:44 AM

5. I'm around

(have been MIRTing this morning), but I know this is your baby too!

Will have to prepare for the tweet-crowing today.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:56 AM

20. "Last month, it said the unemployment rate was 13.3 percent, but a major misclassification" ...

From the Washington Post -
BLS said the unemployment rate in June declined to 11.1 percent. Last month, it said the unemployment rate was 13.3 percent, but a major misclassification error clouded the report’s accuracy.


The BLS report estimated the May unemployment rate was "about 3 percentage points" higher than the 13.3% reported, due to the misclassification error.

More on this from a month ago, and also the March and April errors
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13560715

Back to today's report - in the Covid-19 section of the OP, it says

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical June) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 1 percentage point higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.

According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.


So, from the above, the official 11.1% is low side, while 12.1% is high side.

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Response to mpcamb (Reply #37)

Sun Jul 5, 2020, 10:57 AM

38. Yup, I include black and white in my BLS Data Links (#7 below)

# Black unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
First 6 months of 2020: 6.0, 5.8, 6.7, 16.7, 16.8, 15.4 Trump: "what have you got to lose?"

# White unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
First 6 months of 2020: 3.1, 3.1, 4.0, 14.2, 12.4, 10.1


Thanks for chart & table -- I see the Hispanic or Latino is 14.5. I found the LNS number --

# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
First 6 months of 2020: 4.3, 4.4, 6.0, 18.9, 17.6, 14.5

Will add to #7.

I usually go through all the tables and look for all the key numbers and write something, but I'm so far behind these days. I'm also cogitating about Wolf Richter's "Never Before Have I Seen So Much Fake Unemployment & Jobs Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics"

https://www.democraticunderground.com/111688735   (Economy Group)

where he points out that the BLS official unemployment number is 17.8 M unemployed (and even with the 1% max error in the unemployment rate added in -- see Covid section of OP -- that would be 17.8 * 12.1/11.1 = 19.4 M)

vs. 31.5 M of continuing claims for unemployment insurance.

There are reasons for the two to be different, but that different???

I only did a tiny first start at my #16 below
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2528470

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 07:57 AM

6. Links to earlier reports:

Good morning, all.

Fri Jun 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 8, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, April 3, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, February 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thursday, January 9, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2020:

Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 2,760,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment falls by 701,000 in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2020:

The U.S. labor market showed strength in February, adding 273,000 jobs

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2020:

U.S. adds 183,000 private-sector jobs in February, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2020:

The economy added 225,000 jobs in January, showing continued strength

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2020:

ADP says 291,000 private-sector jobs created in January, largest gain in 4 years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2019:

Economy adds 145,000 jobs in December as unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2019:

U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2019:

Labor market remained strong in November as U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2019:

U.S. private sector job growth slows down sharply in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2019:

U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October as GM strike displaced workers; jobless rate ticks up

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2019:

U.S. economy added just 136,000 jobs in September, in fresh sign economy is cooling

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 135,000 Jobs in September

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2019:

U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2019:

Survey: Businesses added a solid 195,000 jobs in August

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2019:

U.S. Added 164,000 Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2019:

ADP says 156,000 private-sector jobs added created in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2019:

Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June;unemployment rate inched up to 3.7 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2019:

U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:01 AM

7. SOME BLS DATA SERIES NUMBERS LINKS

Last edited Tue Jul 7, 2020, 07:51 AM - Edit history (4)

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

# Employed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000


# Nonfarm Employment in thousands (Establishment Survey, Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

2019: 269 1 147 210 85 182 194 207 208 185 261 184
2020: 214 251 -1373 -20787 2699 4800
Feb and March of 2020 are Corrected. May and June are Preliminary


# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, Monthly changes:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

2019: -198 239 -125 -45 148 304 198 549 403 246 -8 267
2020: -89 45 -2987 -22369 3839 4940
Jan and Feb of each year are affected by changes in population controls


# Black unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
First 6 months of 2020: 6.0, 5.8, 6.7, 16.7, 16.8, 15.4   Trump: "what have you got to lose?"

# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
First 6 months of 2020: 4.3, 4.4, 6.0, 18.9, 17.6, 14.5

# White unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
First 6 months of 2020: 3.1, 3.1, 4.0, 14.2, 12.4, 10.1

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062


ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

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Response to progree (Reply #7)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:05 AM

9. Good morning. Thanks for being up for this. NT

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:10 AM

10. Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release
Connect with DOL at https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, July 2, 2020

COVID-19 Impact

The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA


In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,620,750 to 1,621,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.2 percent for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised down by 0.2 from 13.4 to 13.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 20 was 19,290,000, an increase of 59,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 291,000 from 19,522,000 to 19,231,000. The 4-week moving average was 19,854,000, a decrease of 494,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 72,750 from 20,421,250 to 20,348,500.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #10)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:29 AM

16. PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS, W.E. June 13 (UNADJUSTED): 31,491,627

From your link: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)
WEEK ENDING June 13; June 6; Change; Prior Year

TOTAL 31,491,627; 30,574,905; +916,722; 1,582,309

Includes the federal program - Pandemic Unemployment Insurance

They don't have a seasonally adjusted number for all this

I don't know why they don't have a Week Ending June 20 for this. "Continuing claims" lags initial claims by a week, but we have initial claims for week ending June 27, so we should have continuing claims for week ending June 20. Eh?? I guess not. Life sucks and then you die.

This from Wolf Richter explaining the two programs FROM A MONTH AGO -- regular state, and the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/06/11/a-word-about-the-chaos-in-the-unemployment-data-week-12-of-the-u-s-labor-market-collapse/

I'm sure I'll sort this all out better but it probably won't be today, July 2.

The main thing is that the regular state program part of it is, well, only part of it.

What I'm driving towards with all this, is the number collecting unemployment benefits (or at least deemed eligible for unemployment benefits), all programs combined.

===============================================================
UPDATE: From 7/2/20 (I added this 7/9/20):

Never Before Have I Seen So Much Fake Unemployment & Jobs Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wolf Richter, 7/2/20
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111688735
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/02/never-before-have-i-seen-so-much-fake-unemployment-jobs-data-by-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-while-labor-department-nails-it/

Points out that continuing claims for unemployment benefits, including the federal PUA program is 31.5 million while the BLS only reports 17.8 million unemployed in today's jobs report. And if the corrected unemployment rate is 12.1% instead of 11.1% (see Covid section in OP), then the corrected unemployed would be 17.8 * 12.1/11.1 = 19.4 Million. Anyway, that there is such a large gap between the two numbers: 31.5 million vs. 19.4 million is proof to Richter that the BLS is cooking the jobs report.

I'm not much into conspiracy theories, but at the same time, although I can give a number of reasons why the numbers are somewhat different, I can't begin to explain the 12 million gap between the two numbers. I haven't dug into this or Googled for some possible explanations. I post it here because it's a deep dive into the two unemployment benefits programs.



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Response to progree (Reply #16)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:35 AM

17. "I don't know why they don't have a Week Ending June 20 for this."

Everyone was at Stonehenge?

The office in which this report originates is not in the building with BLS. It is in DOL's main office, which is next to the recently toppled statue of Albert Pike.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:20 AM

11. Additional links:

It used to be that you could get free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal. by going in through TWSJ.'s Twitter account or the Twitter accounts of the authors:

How to get around the paywall to read articles in The Wall Street Journal.:

For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., trying going in through the authors' Twitter feeds:

This trick doesn't seem to work anymore, but you might be able to get in if they've slipped up. Here are those accounts:

* * * * *

The Wall Street Journal.: @WSJ
https://twitter.com/wsj

Wall Street Journal

Breaking news and features from the WSJ.

* * * * *

Ben Leubsdorf: @BenLeubsdorf
https://twitter.com/BenLeubsdorf

I cover the economy at @WSJ. @ConMonitorNews, @AP, @the_herald alum. DC native. Hyperactive news omnivore. Also I like burritos. ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com

* * * * *

Josh Zumbrun: ‎@JoshZumbrun
https://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun

National economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Covering the world's usual state of greed and disorder, confusion and apathy. josh.zumbrun@wsj.com

* * * * *

Nick Timiraos: @NickTimiraos
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

National economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Please look at the tweets, as Nick Timiraos likes to slice and dice the data every which way. Also, link to the "11 charts " article from his Twitter feed to get past TWSJ.'s paywall.

* * * * *

Jeffrey Sparshott: @jeffsparshott
https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott

Jeffrey.Sparshott@wsj.com

* * * * *

Paul Vigna: @paulvigna
https://twitter.com/paulvigna
Markets, bitcoin, and the zombie apocalypse.

* * * * *

Eric Morath: @EricMorath
https://twitter.com/EricMorath

Eric.Morath@wsj.com
I'm a Wall Street Journal economy reporter, dad, husband and Spartan for life. eric.morath@wsj.com

Washington DC

blogs.wsj.com/economics/

* * * * *

Sarah Chaney: ‎@sechaney
https://twitter.com/sechaney

Economy Reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Tar Heel. sarah.chaney@wsj.com

* * * * *

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:24 AM

12. Links to charts and graphs from the BLS Twitter account.

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1% http://go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata



Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on The Employment Situation for June 2020 https://go.usa.gov/xwJAF #JobsReport #BLSdata



See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport http://go.usa.gov/cn5B4 #BLSdata #DataViz



Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics #JobsReport #BLSdata


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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:27 AM

13. This will give Yertle all he needs to justify not extending the Fed unemployment

benefit of $600 a week.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:28 AM

15. the real unemployment rate is closer to 20%, but the new math used these days leaves out a lot

plus who believes anything coming from this administration? I don't

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Response to yaesu (Reply #15)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 09:04 AM

22. Agree!

Everyone needs to remember that Il Douche's main talking points are always the "market and jobs" and especially how "his market" is performing. There may be a few hiccups between now and November, but I'm anticipating a significant march upward in the stock market and dramatic reduction in the unemployment numbers prior to the election - Powell, Munchkins, and Ross will make it happen.

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Response to yaesu (Reply #15)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 09:12 AM

23. The unemployment numbers will shockingly start hitting 15%-18% a month after Biden is in office

Watch for it............

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 08:56 AM

21. Trump is winning so bigly

COVID is going to get worse before it gets better. So look for pain and punishment over the next few months as it's completely out of control.

The worst part of it all is if they had taken swift action like the Asian countries or rest of the world, our pandemic could have been contained sooner and economy mostly opened by now, just like most of the world.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 11:41 AM

25. All in all...

I am going by the COVID-19 numbers of cases and deaths as my indicator.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 12:15 PM

26. U-6 Unemployment

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Response to lonely bird (Reply #26)

Thu Jul 2, 2020, 05:51 PM

27. Interesting analysis over at 538!

A lot of the jobs lost won’t be coming back, and that trend started before March. This supports my assertion that the economy was tanking before the COVID shutdowns. I would call today’s uptick more or less Irrelevant to what’s really happening

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-unemployment-rate-is-falling-but-more-people-are-losing-their-jobs-permanently/

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Response to maddogesq (Reply #27)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 11:29 AM

28. I get it.

I was terminated June 26.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 11:53 AM

29. That's 3.15x Of What It Was When BHO Left

For every 20 people who couldn't find a job in January 2017, there are now 63 such people.
Are we "winning" yet?

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #29)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 12:03 PM

30. I get 2.36x. But point well-taken

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
January 2017: 4.7%
June 2020: 11.1%
11.1/4.7 = 2.36

If the error in June 2020 is as high as 1.0% (see Covid section of the OP), then it would be 12.1% UR, and a ratio of 12.1/4.7 = 2.57.

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Response to progree (Reply #30)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 01:31 PM

31. I Think You're Doing UE6

I was doing UE1.
I thought this report was describing UE1.
Per USNews, the November 2016 report showed 3.5%.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #31)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 03:11 PM

32. The official unemployment rate is U-3. I've never seen anything else given in the media

Last edited Sat Jul 4, 2020, 05:32 PM - Edit history (1)

headlines, or in BLS headlines of their jobs report, other than that. The 11.1% number in the OP is U-3.

Per USNews, the November 2016 report showed 3.5%.


I don't believe it. I'm very interested in what BLS report or media article said that.

Here are the alternative measurments of unemployment, U-1 through U-6
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
Current values: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm   (Table A-15)
(also 4 previous monthly values, and the year ago value)

U-1 is Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force, and is currently 2.1%

In November 2016, according to the report that came out in early December, the numbers were:
U-1: 1.8%, U-2: 2.2%, U-3: 4.6%, U-4: 5.0%, U-5: 5.8%, U-6: 9.3%

I have all the jobs report saved, every month for years, but could probably find a link at archive.org

In your #29, you specifically said January 2017. (U-3 is the same 4.7% in November 2016 and January 2017, according to
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
(they do an annual adjustment to the numbers, so that's why November 2016 at 4.7% is a bit different than the 4.6% that was originally reported in early December 2016).


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Response to progree (Reply #32)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 03:23 PM

33. From White House Dot Gov

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Employment Situation Report, which shows robust employment growth in September. Job gains are particularly noteworthy considering that the United States is in the midst of the longest economic recovery in its history. The Trump Administration’s pro-growth agenda provides job creators with the framework they need to expand their businesses and offer more opportunities for workers. Since the President’s election, the economy has added over 6.4 million jobs—more than the population of Maryland. Steady job growth in combination with sustained year-over-year wage increases are not only positive signs for the economy: They also improve workers’ quality of life and incentivize previously left-behind Americans to join the labor force.

The household survey finds that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in September, marking the 19th consecutive month at or below 4 percent unemployment. The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since May 1969—over 50 years ago.

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #33)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 03:38 PM

34. That wasn't from any time in 2016 or 2017. I can believe that was September

2019 released in early October 2019.

The household survey finds that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in September, marking the 19th consecutive month at or below 4 percent unemployment. The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since May 1969—over 50 years ago.


Since the President’s election, the economy has added over 6.4 million jobs


We weren't at that point at any time in 2016 or 2017.

Also, May 1969 was not over 50 years ago from anytime in 2016, 2017, or 2018.

Here's the job numbers that are always touted in the headlines:

Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

I get 6.156 million additional jobs between November 2016 and September 2019, which about matches (for this data series they adjust the numbers twice over the next 2 months)

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #33)

Sun Jul 5, 2020, 04:33 AM

35. Per progree, "that was September 2019 released in early October 2019."

The Council of Economic Advisers put out a press release about the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. It's back on page 146.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/page/146/

To cut out the non-economy boasting, you can also use this category:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/economy-jobs/

That removes about ninety percent of the propaganda.

ECONOMY & JOBS

U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to 50-Year Low
October 4, 2019 4 minute read

Council of Economic Advisers

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Employment Situation Report, which shows robust employment growth in September. Job gains are particularly noteworthy considering that the United States is in the midst of the longest economic recovery in its history. The Trump Administration’s pro-growth agenda provides job creators with the framework they need to expand their businesses and offer more opportunities for workers. Since the President’s election, the economy has added over 6.4 million jobs—more than the population of Maryland. Steady job growth in combination with sustained year-over-year wage increases are not only positive signs for the economy: They also improve workers’ quality of life and incentivize previously left-behind Americans to join the labor force.

The household survey finds that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in September, marking the 19th consecutive month at or below 4 percent unemployment. The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since May 1969—over 50 years ago. All Americans are benefiting from the labor market’s continued improvement. The lowest unemployment rates on record were matched or set in September 2019 for African Americans, Hispanics, and people with disabilities.

Additionally, the unemployment rate for people without a high school diploma fell to 4.8 percent, the lowest rate since the series began in 1992 and much lower than the 7.8 percent rate in November 2016 (figure 1). Since President Trump’s election, the unemployment rate for those without a high school degree has fallen at a faster rate than the unemployment rate for those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. The decrease has narrowed the gap between the unemployment rate for non-high school graduates and the unemployment rate for college graduates to 2.8 percentage points, matching the lowest gap ever seen in the series.

{snip}

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #35)

Sun Jul 5, 2020, 05:59 AM

36. Ahh, the flashback to better days - we'd still be there if we had not done all this testing

according to the Ostrich-In-Chief
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142530025   :

Trump voices frustration with soaring COVID-19 totals: 'Cases, cases, cases!', The Hill, 7/4/20

Cases, Cases, Cases! If we didn’t test so much and so successfully, we would have very few cases,” the president tweeted. “If you test 40,000,000 people, you are going to have many cases that, without the testing, would not show up every night on the Fake Evening News.”

... At an indoor campaign rally in Oklahoma last month, Trump suggested that the country should test less so the number of cases wouldn’t increase ...


and many times before that. I don't know what's wrong with this idiot -- it's through massive testing (among other measures) that the other developed countries of the world got their Covid situation under control.

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