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Fri Apr 10, 2020, 12:52 PM

U.S. Projects Summer Spike in Infections if Stay-At-Home Orders Are Lifted

Source: New York Times

Stay-at-home orders, school closures and social distancing greatly reduce infections of the coronavirus, but lifting those restrictions after just 30 days will lead to a dramatic infection spike this summer and death tolls that would rival doing nothing, government projections indicate.

The projections obtained by The New York Times come from the departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services. The models use three scenarios. The first has policymakers doing nothing to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. The second, labeled “steady state,” assumes schools remain closed until summer, 25 percent of Americans telework from home, and some social distancing continues. The third scenario includes a 30-day shelter in place, on top of those “steady state” restrictions.

The documents, dated April 9, contain no dates for when shelter in places orders were delivered nor do they contain specific dates for when spikes would hit. The risk they show of easing shelter-in-place orders currently in effect in most of the country undercut recent statements by President Trump that the United States could be ready to reopen “very, very soon.”

The model foresees a bump in the demand for ventilators — considered a stand-in for serious Covid-19 infection rates — 30 days after stay-at-home orders are issued, a major spike in infections about 100 days after, and peaking 150 days after the initial order. (Assuming further shelter-in-place policies are not implemented to reduce future peaks.)

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/us/coronavirus-updates-usa.html



Oy.

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Reply U.S. Projects Summer Spike in Infections if Stay-At-Home Orders Are Lifted (Original post)
jayschool2013 Apr 2020 OP
bucolic_frolic Apr 2020 #1
EarthFirst Apr 2020 #2
flibbitygiblets Apr 2020 #6
FrodosNewPet Apr 2020 #17
flibbitygiblets Apr 2020 #19
Kitchari Apr 2020 #23
Steelrolled Apr 2020 #3
we can do it Apr 2020 #14
DavidDvorkin Apr 2020 #4
Submariner Apr 2020 #5
Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #8
Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #7
Warpy Apr 2020 #9
DarthDem Apr 2020 #10
Warpy Apr 2020 #11
DarthDem Apr 2020 #12
Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #13
DarthDem Apr 2020 #18
Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #20
NickB79 Apr 2020 #21
DarthDem Apr 2020 #22
elleng Apr 2020 #15
appleannie1 Apr 2020 #16
TryLogic Apr 2020 #24
lunasun Apr 2020 #25
OhioChick Apr 2020 #26

Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 12:59 PM

1. We've been slow to be informed and realize

this is a multiple wave pandemic that could take 15-36 months to play out and extinguish. So much rests on a vaccine.

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 01:08 PM

2. That's unpossible. The heat & humidity will zap it!

The entire summer bbq season is upon us in mere weeks. Weeks!

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Response to EarthFirst (Reply #2)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 01:46 PM

6. Yup, like magic! It will just "wash through".

(Insert insane hand gestures here.)

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Response to flibbitygiblets (Reply #6)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 04:06 PM

17. His invisible accordion

The man who would be Myron Floren

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Response to FrodosNewPet (Reply #17)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 04:22 PM

19. 👆 That is freaking awesome 👆

If the news networks won't stop airing his daily campaign rallies, er, "coronavirus updates", the least they could do is ad these effects.

Come on CNN, you owe us!!

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Response to FrodosNewPet (Reply #17)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:16 PM

23. Ha!

this is superb

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 01:16 PM

3. The longer we can stretch it out the better.

We want more immune people in the population, for herd immunity. But hopefully we get a vaccine and get it sooner than later.

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Response to Steelrolled (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 03:13 PM

14. Not going to be soon. 12-18 months.

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 01:28 PM

4. However, the only projection that counts is the one Donald Trump pulls out of thin air

Or wherever it is he pulls his invented numbers from.

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 01:39 PM

5. The Trump death panel will probably calculate that those over 70

are on their last legs anyway, as White House adviser Bill falafel O'Reilly stated yesterday. So, I was going to die in a few years anyway, so no need to maintain social distancing just for a bunch of old boomers.

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Response to Submariner (Reply #5)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 02:04 PM

8. That lie is easily refuted later when we can look at the "surplus" deaths.


In Lombardy, Italy, obituaries were running something like 10 times normal. We wouldn't say that 90% of those who died would have died in a few days anyway.

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 02:00 PM

7. It's NOT shelter-in-place. It's Stay At Home. Oddly, NYT uses dashes in two place but not another.

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 02:46 PM

9. Lockdown is unsustainable.

People are going to run out of food, cash, and patience. Lockdown is not a long term strategy, it's one to buy time. It's been wasted time in our case because Big Dummy wants to micromanage the distribution of every single face mask in the country and results have already been disastrous for health care workers.

Yes, there will be a spike in cases. However, if they tried to keep this going until fall of winter, that spike would be enormous. Remember, every person who gets this and gets over it is immune. Flattening the curve will occur when enough people are immune that transmission is slowed.

In the absence of a vaccine, that is how it's going to work. Hiding from it won't, especially with Big Dummy fucking everything up.

It's not about ventilators, most of the people who are ill enough to go onto one with this disease will die, that is the sad truth. It's about protective equipment for health care workers. It's about a 99% survival rate with about 14% of those needing oxygen but not a vent. It's also about a malignant narcissist who is so driven to micromanage according to loyalty that he's effectively holding a gun to the head of every health care worker out there.

Well, not in Florida. They got twice as many of everything as they requested.

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Response to Warpy (Reply #9)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 02:49 PM

10. It's actually about following the South Korea/Taiwan model


Reopening with immediate testing of anyone who's symptomatic, with resulting quarantines and contact tracing. This needs to be implemented starting now. If they can do it, so can the United States of America. This is the exit strategy, and we already have proof from those countries that it works.

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Response to DarthDem (Reply #10)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 02:53 PM

11. You know what needs to be done and I know what needs to be done

and most people out there know what needs to be done, but there's a bloated malignant narcissist in our way.

Until he's gone, forget it.

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Response to Warpy (Reply #11)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 03:04 PM

12. Ay, there's the rub

n/t

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Response to DarthDem (Reply #10)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 03:11 PM

13. SKorea flattened & peaked-out the curve first. US is flattening (yay!) but not there yet.


Also: very different: SKorea tested early and aggressively.

Further, they really had a lockdown. Not a funky half-assed some-stay-at-home.

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Response to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #13)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 04:10 PM

18. Not Accurate, In Fact


Actually, South Korea had no lockdown at all.

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Response to DarthDem (Reply #18)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 04:28 PM

20. I think you are right on that one point. . . . nt

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Response to DarthDem (Reply #10)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 06:34 PM

21. Those models required GPS tracking of most citizens via apps

Using their smartphones to quickly identify people exposed to a confirmed infected patient.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

And

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/F17ADA06-7367-11EA-AA1E-FE177E78275D

That will never be accepted in the US at the numbers needed. It's a level of Big Brother even a lot of Democrats would be wary of, much less Republicans.

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Response to NickB79 (Reply #21)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:13 PM

22. That's certainly an issue


But I bet you didn't think everyone would willingly stay in their homes for long periods either.

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 03:42 PM

15. No sh*t, sherlock!

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 04:02 PM

16. As long as anyone is infected and it can find another host, it will spread. Period.

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 11:13 PM

24. A big spike is coming in the second half of April.

I was out today (Friday, April 10) going for some groceries and to a drug store in Colorado where people have been somewhat compliant with the distancing, stay-at-home orders. There were people everywhere. Lots of traffic. Not too many in a health oriented food store, but several in the drug store, and none in the drug store were wearing masks. I was the only one in the drug store wearing a mask. Then, of course, there are those who want to prove they trust God to protect them who will gather for worship services on Sunday. Oh, and if God does not protect them, then it was God's plan for them. It would seem they are willing to die for Trump's lies.

This is a very good time to avoid fools.

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Response to TryLogic (Reply #24)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 11:17 PM

25. ++"This is a very good time to avoid fools"

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Response to jayschool2013 (Original post)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 05:06 AM

26. Oh hell, it would spread like wildfire, worse than it's been n/t

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