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Sun Apr 5, 2020, 11:56 AM

Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

Source: Washington Post

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

The fast-spreading novel coronavirus is almost certainly killing Americans who are not included in the nation’s growing death toll, according to public health experts and government officials involved in the tally.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. “We know that it is an underestimation,” agency spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said.

A widespread lack of access to testing in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak means people with respiratory illnesses died without being counted, epidemiologists say. Even now, some people who die at home or in overburdened nursing homes are not being tested, according to funeral directors, medical examiners and nursing home representatives.

Postmortem testing by medical examiners varies widely across the country, and some officials say testing the dead is a misuse of scarce resources that could be used on the living. In addition, some people who have the virus test negative, experts say.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/2020/04/05/71d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html



This is a free-to-read article; much more at link

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Reply Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count (Original post)
Maeve Apr 5 OP
CaptYossarian Apr 5 #1
BComplex Apr 5 #2
mr_lebowski Apr 5 #13
BComplex Apr 5 #15
BigmanPigman Apr 5 #29
keithbvadu2 Apr 5 #3
RestoreAmerica2020 Apr 5 #4
gristy Apr 5 #5
dalton99a Apr 5 #10
paleotn Apr 5 #6
gristy Apr 5 #12
paleotn Apr 5 #22
yaesu Apr 5 #7
appalachiablue Apr 5 #24
BamaRefugee Apr 5 #8
EarthFirst Apr 5 #9
DUar17 Apr 5 #14
greatauntoftriplets Apr 5 #11
Maeve Apr 5 #25
joanbarnes Apr 5 #16
progree Apr 5 #17
Steelrolled Apr 5 #18
hay rick Apr 5 #19
SunSeeker Apr 5 #20
TNNurse Apr 5 #21
Cozmo Apr 5 #23
Maeve Apr 5 #26
Squinch Apr 5 #27
McCamy Taylor Apr 5 #28
roamer65 Apr 6 #30

Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:01 PM

1. Ms. Nordlund will be unemployed by Friday.

The old Nazi expression: "Heads will roll!"

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:03 PM

2. Here on DU we've known this to be true for over a month.

I'm glad they wrote the article, however. More investigative journalists need to hop on this, as well. It is HUGE news, when you think about it. Americans are being lied to big time by this administration, and even MAGAts don't like that.

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Response to BComplex (Reply #2)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 01:00 PM

13. What evidence do you have to support this claim?

"Americans are being lied to big time by this administration, and even MAGAts don't like that."

From all I've encountered, MAGAT's appear to fukcing LOVE being lied to.

It's like literally their favorite thing, ever.

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Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #13)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 01:45 PM

15. Good point,lebowski.

They're pretty sick people. That's why they're fox "news" fans, after all.

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Response to BComplex (Reply #15)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 05:31 PM

29. Masochists.

tRump is the sadist in this sick relationship.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:08 PM

3. Trump has already shown that he wants the count shortchanged so that he looks better.

Trump has already shown that he wants the count shortchanged so that he looks better.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:15 PM

4. What is mossing from elmalhombre inbwh daily hate,propagada

..ralliss and that is a chrryon at bottom of screen depicting the current #of cases and and deaths. This is the responsibility of msmto provide this information. Also I've noticed in campaign ads against trump dems or groups are not depicting the #numbers as well. Why is this importsnt--to alert the americ an people th at what he is doing on COVD-19 IS not working. Wake up America!


Worldmeter- Updated April 05, 2020, 16:13 GMT
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
323,168
Deaths:
9,158


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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:18 PM

5. ALL deaths should be counted, and subtract expected deaths with no Covid-19

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Response to gristy (Reply #5)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:32 PM

10. +1

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:18 PM

6. This statement.....

and some officials say testing the dead is a misuse of scarce resources that could be used on the living.


No, no and fucking NO! Doing this gathers information and that is the ammunition vital to stopping or slowing down a pandemic! The data on what is actually happening in the real world is of utmost importance. Create, produce, beg, borrow and steal every test available to determine..... Who has the virus....How did they likely acquire it....Who else have they possibly infected. Do that early, isolate the chains of infection and you squash the pandemic. Don't....and it's the ultimate case of pay me now or pay me a whole hell of a lot later. Why that's so fucking hard for humans to understand, I'll never know.

When this is over, the American response to CvD-19 will be the primary case study on WHAT NOT TO FUCKING DO to respond to a pandemic. For all our wealth and scientific muscle, outside of notable exceptions in NY state and a few other places, we're a collection of fucking idiots!

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Response to paleotn (Reply #6)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:55 PM

12. The point is that the dead are for the most part no longer vectors for the virus

And since nobody is using tracing and contact isolation anymore (we're several weeks past when that would have been effective or even possible), there just isn't any point.

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Response to gristy (Reply #12)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 02:57 PM

22. Did they die of flu? COPD? or something else.

You cannot isolate an outbreak without testing. And that includes the recently deceased.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:22 PM

7. I know of at least one Georgia hospital that isn't reporting deaths according to a friend who's mom

is an RN working there.

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Response to yaesu (Reply #7)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 03:07 PM

24. That's really disturbing, the politics of this, glad you posted.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:25 PM

8. Use data from past decades for average deaths in every county, and subtract the number from current

Death rates in the same county now. Do it daily or weekly, my bet is you’ll have a much clearer picture of what’s happening.

You may have to allow for fewer deaths from car accidents currently though.

Not a statistician, just a pandemic hobbyist.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:28 PM

9. ...yet the FuctNews demographic is screaming about the coverup on the numbers in China. nt

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Response to EarthFirst (Reply #9)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 01:02 PM

14. +1

So true..

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 12:46 PM

11. I wonder if there will ever truly be an accurate count.

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Response to greatauntoftriplets (Reply #11)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 03:54 PM

25. Probably not--there are too many

But there will be better estimates of the scope of deaths somewhere (somewhen?) down the road.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 01:49 PM

16. as well as the multitude of us who have had it but will never be tested......

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 02:12 PM

17. Add to this that perhaps nearly 1/3 who are infected are nevertheless getting a negative test result

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry, Wall Street Journal via MSN, 4/2/12

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are nevertheless getting a negative test result. They caution that only limited data is available, and their estimates are based on their own experience in the absence of hard science.

That picture is troubling, many doctors say, as it casts doubt on the reliability of a wave of new tests developed by manufacturers, lab companies and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Most of these are operating with minimal regulatory oversight and little time to do robust studies amid a desperate call for wider testing.

More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/questions-about-accuracy-of-coronavirus-tests-sow-worry/ar-BB124KXh?ocid=spartandhp


China found similar results: 60% tested positive but 90% had tell-tale signs of the virus in CT chest scans.

False positives occur at a much lower rate

So anyway, keep this in mind if you or someone close to you tests negative... there's about a 1/3 chance that test result is wrong, so act accordingly.

The article is free in full at the above msn.com link

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 02:23 PM

18. We want counts to be accurate

but I see this as a technical issue for the medical researchers. We know the death count is growing, and what we need to do to slow it down.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 02:37 PM

19. I've been waiting for American deaths/reported cases ratio to catch up to world stats.

I initially assumed the delay was due to a rapid increase in American testing and confirmed cases. The peak in deaths is expected to lag the peak in new infections. If the American mortality rates don't catch up soon I have to believe that the true numbers are being suppressed. Todays numbers: worldwide cases, deaths: 1,197,413 and 64,605. American cases, deaths: 308,259 and 8,384. Rest of the world cases, deaths (worldwide numbers minus American numbers): 889,154 and 56,221. The mortality rate for the rest of the world is 6.3%. The American mortality rate is 2.7%. We should expect a rapid increase in deaths attributed to COVID-19...or something is very fishy.

I wasn't able to read the article.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 02:43 PM

20. There's up to a 40% false negative on the CDC test.

Testing is a disgusting joke in the US.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 02:46 PM

21. I would be very surprised if those who die before they are tested are tested at the end.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 03:02 PM

23. Why is it that this week we are supposed to see an increase in deaths

Is it because the dumb-fuck administration knows that numbers they've been sitting on are going to be released this week?

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Response to Cozmo (Reply #23)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 03:57 PM

26. Mostly because we're hitting that point in the pandemic

The slope of infection, the critical mass of cases, the average time from first symptoms to death--that is the main cause.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 04:53 PM

27. "In the early weeks"? We STILL aren't testing much.

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Response to Maeve (Original post)

Sun Apr 5, 2020, 05:16 PM

28. My daughter in law ( a nurse) picked up an evil respiratory virus

at work in late February. In a major US metropolitan area with a huge international airport and lots of lots of people from China and Asia living in the region. All she was told is that "It is not any known strain of influenza" People at work (residents and staff) with flu vaccine got it. She got it. The whole family got it. Since I am a doctor I asked to be tested since I did not want to take it back to work where many of my patients are 80-100 years old. I was told that without any foreign travel I did not qualify for testing.

We now know that this virus has been in the US for a while, nursing homes are often sites of epidemics and lots of people from all around the world stop in our airport as they change flights. Plus, who knows how many of our local Chinese went home for New Year?

When the antibody test becomes available, I may finally know.

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Response to McCamy Taylor (Reply #28)

Mon Apr 6, 2020, 12:20 AM

30. Yeah I had the same kinda bug in early January.

Detroit is a major destination back and forth from China due to the automotive industry.

My sister had it worse than I did. Doc told her he did not know what it was.

An acquaintance who’s wife is a nurse also had it.

I’d love to have an antibody test, because if I have antibodies I could give plasma.

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