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Thu Mar 26, 2020, 12:47 AM

The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen

Source: CNBC

The coronavirus crisis is likely to result in layoffs on a scale that the U.S. has never seen before.

Economists expect April to be the first reporting month when the damage starts to show up.
Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million.

The worst month during the financial crisis saw nonfarm payrolls decrease by 800,000.

Weekly jobless claims numbers are expected to be so bad that the White House has reportedly asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html



This article refers to monthly numbers but tomorrow morning the Treasury will release the weekly numbers, expected to be from 1-5 million.

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Reply The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen (Original post)
MoonlitKnight Mar 26 OP
msongs Mar 26 #1
cilla4progress Mar 26 #2
Initech Mar 26 #3
KY_EnviroGuy Mar 26 #5
Aquaria Mar 26 #8
KY_EnviroGuy Mar 26 #9
appalachiablue Mar 26 #15
Aquaria Mar 27 #16
defacto7 Mar 29 #28
sop Mar 26 #4
Totally Tunsie Mar 26 #6
Warpy Mar 26 #7
duforsure Mar 26 #10
gibraltar72 Mar 29 #27
ProfessorGAC Thursday #40
IronLionZion Mar 26 #11
Hestia Mar 27 #17
liberalhistorian Mar 29 #19
appalachiablue Mar 29 #34
mahina Mar 29 #23
IronLionZion Mar 29 #25
machoneman Mar 26 #12
former9thward Mar 29 #21
gibraltar72 Mar 29 #29
MoonlitKnight Mar 26 #13
Stuart G Mar 26 #14
LudwigPastorius Mar 27 #18
dalton99a Mar 29 #24
budkin Mar 29 #20
DeminPennswoods Mar 29 #22
rzemanfl Mar 29 #26
Arthur_Frain Mar 29 #30
Wellstone ruled Mar 29 #31
MoonlitKnight Mar 29 #32
Wellstone ruled Mar 29 #33
MoonlitKnight Wednesday #35
MoonlitKnight Thursday #38
GeorgiaPeanut Wednesday #36
sarcasmo Thursday #37
DeminPennswoods Thursday #39
MoonlitKnight Thursday #41

Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 01:08 AM

1. all these job losses ordered by and created by politicians. very unusual nt

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 01:10 AM

2. This is why drumpf is freaking about

getting back to normal. He's been bragging about the low unemployment rate from the beginning. This will make him shit his pants.

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 01:23 AM

3. Yup, this is hitting him where he lives.

And that is not good, nor will it end well.

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:54 AM

5. Trump can't stand to be seen as a loser.

I recall one of his biographers saying that quite clearly and that he lives to have "wins". In that light, he's in very deep emotional shit.

I don't see how people survive working for this White House unless he's managed to hire every psychopath in the country.

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Response to KY_EnviroGuy (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 04:15 AM

8. Wouldn't take much to hire a bunch of psychopaths

I've seen reports that about 1 in 100 of all people are psychopaths. So they're plenty common enough to be working with this known psychopath.

Most people think that psychopaths wouldn't be able to work together, but they can, when it suits them. Sometimes, you'd rather have the stereotypical dynamic where they're at each other's throats all the time than when they work together. When they work against each other, they spend more time tearing each other down and manipulating everyone else to help them do it. When they work together, everyone around them is torn down.

I had the misfortune of witnessing two of them join forces in my family. It was a fricking nightmare.

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Response to Aquaria (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 04:28 AM

9. Yes, and I think it's much higher than 1% when one considers.....

it exists in human populations in degrees, say rated from one to ten. Most of the nines and tens are in prison whereas sixes, seven and eights are Republican politicians and big business CEOs (just by my amateur metrics, LOL). The rest of them as you mention, are running among us just as everyday assholes.

It took me until I was up into my mid-60s to understand some of this psychology and evolutionary theory on an amateur level but it gave me much relief in understanding humanity, and to be somewhat at peace with it.

KY.......

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Response to KY_EnviroGuy (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 11:58 PM

15. The numbers sound about right & yes the rest are running

around menacing and making hell. Agree that 1% is way, way too low a number for this group of deviants.

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Response to appalachiablue (Reply #15)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:19 AM

16. The 1% is for overall.

But if you look at CEOs, surgeons, salespeople, politicians and other high-stakes jobs, the numbers get a lot higher. Probably 1/4 of CEOs are psychopaths.

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Response to Aquaria (Reply #8)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 07:45 PM

28. I had read closer to 8%

It's actually a very fascinating subject.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 02:36 AM

4. I wonder if Trump will go back to his "unemployment numbers are fake" crappola?

According to Trump, in 2016 Obama's 5% unemployment numbers were "fake," he claimed they were actually around 30%. Now, Trump will say his 30% unemployment numbers are "fake," they're really around 5%. My head is already spinning.

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Response to sop (Reply #4)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 03:06 AM

6. "It's all the fault of those terrible reporters and the fake news media.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it."

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 03:14 AM

7. I got caught in Nixon's big recession in 73

and the unemployment office had it all alphabetized and assigned days and times and the line still stretched a couple of city blocks. They didn't even ask if we'd applied for any jobs, there just weren't any to apply for.

Most people remember the gas lines. The unemployment lines were worse.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 05:02 AM

10. He'll try to corrupt those numbers

Because it exposes his failures to handle this when he should have. Then he'll accuse others that they are the ones responsible for this, never him, which is a lie. trump caused this to be this bad from incompetence, arrogance, and he really doesn't care about anyone else except donald trump, and you're life has no worth to him , he shows openly now. All he cares about with all this going on is himself , and money and staying in power to continue corrupting OUR government. trumps failed response is still continuing from him now refusing to use needed laws , and suggesting only those who praise him get help. That alone is more than enough grounds for resignation calls to start up.

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Response to duforsure (Reply #10)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 07:44 PM

27. Massage.

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Response to duforsure (Reply #10)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:26 PM

40. Aren't The #s Reported Through The States?

It would take 2 minutes for a reporter to look up state by state numbers and CA, NY, IL, etc aren't going to help cook the books. Just the 3 states I mention are nearly 25% of the population.
If there numbers are x, and the fed reports 0.2x, the lie would be obvious.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 07:37 AM

11. instead of giving trillions to "job creators"

give directly to these laid off workers so they can continue to pay the bills, rent/mortgage, groceries, health care. That will do more to help our economy than having executives decide they need more stock buybacks while lounging about in their second or third vacation home far away from cities.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #11)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:36 AM

17. I was reading an economist the other day (forget which) who stated that the very thing

that will jump start the economy is a Debt Jubilee for consumer credit with mortgages not included (I think). Look at the payment money that people will have in their pockets. It actually is less expensive in the long run if we do that.

It's already been bandied about that the $2T is short, that $5T is really needed to really make a difference.

Outstanding consumer credit as of Jan 2020 = 4,202.74025 trillion (which includes secured debt). I am not sure if school debt is included in that number, if not, should be added to balance. Also, that the FED buy up credit pennies on the dollar like collector do, and just write it off.

All credit cards are suspended and will not reopen until we've come up with a plan for a new and better economy at the end of all this. If your debt is written off, you will be able to save (pressure people to save at least 10% - can't make them) for what they need, they will not need to use credit, other than warranty's on big ticket items.

OBTW = fuck the banks and whomever holds the debt. No Whiners Allowed.

As always, YMMV


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Response to Hestia (Reply #17)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:55 AM

19. Student loan debt in this

country stands at around 1.5 trillion. I firmly believe that all student loans should be immediately and permanently erased,, period. This alone would be of immeasurable economic benefit. And student loan payments are the last thing cash-strapped employees who are among the millions who have been or will be laid off should be worrying about.

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Response to liberalhistorian (Reply #19)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 11:28 PM

34. +5 Student debt above a few thousand dollars max shouldn't exist

There was no significant college debt in the US before old Reagan began butchering the system in the 1980s.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #11)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 07:29 PM

23. Some execs have been pouring money into their small

Businesses even before this virus and now face the precipice

Some stopped taking paychecks long ago and have drained their life savings to a puddle to keep the ship afloat

Now this

Generally I wonít disagree with you

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Response to mahina (Reply #23)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 07:40 PM

25. Small businesses have execs?

What I'm talking about is giving cash directly to workers who need it during the shutdown, which would include many restaurant owners and those types of small businesses. Not to large businesses who can borrow money cheaply at record low rates. Now we can debate what size we cut this off at, or do something to help businesses producing necessary health care supplies or food or whatever.

Unpaid workers from large businesses can still get cash directly, but the corporation itself should not.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 08:28 AM

12. "Tomorrow morning the Treasury will release."....NOTHING!

Watch for Mnuchin to claim:

-the dog ate the numbers
-we're having some technical difficulties
-Trump asked for a 90 day delay. Wouldn't want to scare the markets now would we?
-Ben Carson said the data had been infected.
-Betsy DeVos said she didn't understand the results as math wasn't her stromg suit.
-Susan Collins said what the fuck, we're rooting for Trump no matter what.

All very sad, for sure.

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Response to machoneman (Reply #12)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 01:39 PM

21. Except they did release the numbers.

Oh, never mind....

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Response to machoneman (Reply #12)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 07:46 PM

29. Actually Betsy will say see my new yacht.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 08:32 AM

13. 3.23 million!!! One week

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Reply #13)

Thu Mar 26, 2020, 04:59 PM

14. Outstanding prediction in Original Post..K and R nt

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 12:52 PM

18. He'll end his term with the highest unemployment and lowest stock market seen in modern times.


...not to mention all the dead Americans.

Unequivocally, undebatably, the worst president in history.

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Response to LudwigPastorius (Reply #18)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 07:32 PM

24. +1

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 01:14 AM

20. NOT TRUMP'S FAULT!

Not his fault.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 05:34 PM

22. 3% of all Pennsylvanians filed UE

claims last week.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 07:42 PM

26. In Florida the unemployment people don't answer the phone or respond to email

messages.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 08:04 PM

30. Yes, this is going to be a big, big recession.

And itís going to hit fast. Already here in Alaska, all cruises that were supposed to bring the tourists have been prohibited from docking before May 1 (think thatís going to be extended?). Alaska air has parked much of their fleet and slashed 70% of their flight schedule. The border with Canada is closed so no one can drive up the AlCan highway. So our tourist income this year will damn near flatline.

Next, letís talk about oil. At $20 the barrel, there isnít much in that income stream either.

They are going to fudge these numbers every chance they get, because the real ones are terrifying.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 08:12 PM

31. Shades of 1992

It's the Economy Stupid!!!!!!

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Response to Wellstone ruled (Reply #31)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 08:15 PM

32. Shades of 1929 as well

Itís the corruption and the economy and stupid people.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Reply #32)

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 08:17 PM

33. Yes,the big three.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Wed Apr 1, 2020, 05:15 PM

35. Could be 10 million in tomorrow's report

7-10 million new claims this week.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Reply #35)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 02:07 PM

38. Thankfully on the low end

10 million so far, about 6.5 for this week. Probably will be adjusted upward next week.

Good chance we get closer to 20 million with around 8 million new claims next week.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Wed Apr 1, 2020, 07:24 PM

36. I sincerely hope it doesn't come to that

or we'll have soup lines. This is immensely sad.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 01:56 AM

37. Civil unrest this summer. Stay safe, be smart and stay home.

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Response to MoonlitKnight (Original post)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:21 PM

39. Practically everyone was out of work during

the Depression. There might be a lot of UE claims, but this isn't coming close to that era.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #39)

Thu Apr 2, 2020, 03:46 PM

41. The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression.1

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