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Tue Mar 24, 2020, 01:27 PM

Prof. Rachel Bitecofer's "Post-Democratic Primary Update" Out, Has Biden 289-Trump 181 EVs

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by JudyM (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Blue Virginia

“My theory and modeling has Biden winning, so why does the VP pick matter? In fact, doesn’t arguing the VP matters undermine my central claim? As I said above, Biden wins with Klobuchar and he wins with Harris or Stacey Abrams. But that VP pick may affect the ability to flip two Georgia senate seats or cut the GOP’s only defense-to target Bernie supporters- off at the knees by putting a liberal on the ticket. I see the selection of the vice president as a risk mitigation factor...”

Read more: https://bluevirginia.us/2020/03/rachel-bitecofers-post-democratic-primary-update-out-has-biden-289-trump-181-electoral-votes-virginia-as-safe-d-state

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Prof. Rachel Bitecofer's "Post-Democratic Primary Update" Out, Has Biden 289-Trump 181 EVs (Original post)
lowkell Mar 24 OP
DrToast Mar 24 #1
jayschool2013 Mar 24 #4
DrToast Mar 24 #5
jayschool2013 Mar 24 #6
ck4829 Mar 24 #2
TwilightZone Mar 24 #3
Progressive Jones Mar 24 #7
Fiendish Thingy Mar 24 #8
FM123 Mar 24 #9
CottonBear Mar 24 #10
elleng Mar 24 #11
elleng Mar 24 #12
GreenReaper Mar 24 #13
JudyM Mar 24 #14

Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 01:29 PM

1. Iowa is a toss up?!

Not sure about that

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Response to DrToast (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 01:57 PM

4. Elaborate

In what direction do YOU think we lean?

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Response to jayschool2013 (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 02:09 PM

5. Trump won it by 10 points

I would think that at a minimum it "leans red."

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Response to DrToast (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 02:10 PM

6. Thanks

I hope you're wrong. Iowa voted for Obama twice, y'know. And we elected 3 of 4 Democrats to the U.S. House in 2018.

Take care.

JS

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 01:32 PM

2. She's the researcher who also said "There is no swing voter", she has a good head on her shoulders

And doesn't seem to be constrained by the "appropriate conventional wisdom".

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Response to ck4829 (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 01:37 PM

3. To be more accurate, she said that swing voters were overrated.

Not that they didn't exist.

Politico did her article a disservice by titling it "There is no swing voter". It wasn't representative of the content, but that's Politico in a nutshell.

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Response to ck4829 (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 02:44 PM

7. There's always a swing vote. However, I think it's smaller in these times. nt

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:13 PM

8. K&r - folks should pay attention to Doc Bitecofer

Depending on how badly the economy is doing and the toll from COVID, I think it is within the realm of possibility for Trump to lose 50 states in November.

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:15 PM

9. Wow, great article.

When I looked at the targeted gray states on Bitecofer's map, it really made the point to me that the veep choice must go hand in hand with the electoral votes we could win. While Iowa is important it only brings us 6, and while North Carolina and Georgia bring us quite a few at 15 and 16, Florida (if we flip it blue and I think we can) will bring us 29 electoral votes. I am surprised that Bitecofer did not add Congresswoman Val Demings of Florida to her list of possible Biden veep considerations along with Harris, Abrams & Klobuchar.

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:17 PM

10. "...2020 is about one thing and one thing only: making the scary, bad man go away."


“Biden fills the role of ‘generic Democrat’ perfectly fine, and that is all that is really required from Democrats to win this election. Because as Sanders supporters are just now coming to learn, while 2016 was about revolution, 2020 is about one thing and one thing only: making the scary, bad man go away.”

https://bluevirginia.us/2020/03/rachel-bitecofers-post-democratic-primary-update-out-has-biden-289-trump-181-electoral-votes-virginia-as-safe-d-state

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:20 PM

11. THANK YOU!

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:33 PM

12. 'As I said above, Biden wins with Klobuchar and he wins with Harris or Stacey Abrams.

But that VP pick may affect the ability to flip two Georgia senate seats or cut the GOP’s only defense-to target Bernie supporters- off at the knees by putting a liberal on the ticket. I see the selection of the vice president as a risk mitigation factor...”'

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:44 PM

13. Warren or Abrams

I think the VP pick should either be Warren (just because I love me some Warren, great attack dog, Charismatic, bring over the progressive votes. Downside is we might lose a Senate seat.) There is also a great case for Stacy Abrams. She almost won the governorship, has been working on voter enfranchisement, but there is another bonus that could come with her; coattails. There are two senate seats up for election in Georgia. If she can help carry Georgia( and all of those electoral college votes) she might also bring over a Senate seat or two which would be the only way Biden would get anything done.

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Response to lowkell (Original post)

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:53 PM

14. Locking

After forum hosts’ review; posts discussing primary candidates are restricted to posting only in the Democratic Primaries forum until the Primaries are over, at the conclusion of the convention. Feel free to repost your OP in that forum.

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