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Mon Feb 10, 2020, 02:50 PM

'First Quarter GDP May Be as low as !.2, but stocks don't seem to care'

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by NancyBlueINOklahoma (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: CNBC

.

Read more: Link to source



Hmmmm?

Pretty huge drop. Given the impact of world, as well as US markets. Something happening here.

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Reply 'First Quarter GDP May Be as low as !.2, but stocks don't seem to care' (Original post)
empedocles Feb 2020 OP
rickford66 Feb 2020 #1
DBoon Feb 2020 #10
empedocles Feb 2020 #17
sandensea Feb 2020 #2
empedocles Feb 2020 #3
onenote Feb 2020 #4
Tactical Peek Feb 2020 #11
Brainfodder Feb 2020 #5
AtheistCrusader Feb 2020 #6
Brainfodder Feb 2020 #7
empedocles Feb 2020 #16
onenote Feb 2020 #9
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #8
onenote Feb 2020 #12
Warpy Feb 2020 #13
IronLionZion Feb 2020 #14
Kaiserguy Feb 2020 #15
OKNancy Feb 2020 #18

Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 02:56 PM

1. Are stock prices being fueled by the corp tax cuts ?

Maybe all the corp execs haven't finished exercising all their stock options yet.

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Response to rickford66 (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:31 PM

10. fewer companies are publicly traded

and ones who are have been using their windfall from tax cuts to buy back stock (of course they are not investing the tax cuts, that's just a fairy tale)

There are fewer equities trading but much more money in the 1% to spend on equities, so the price skyrockets.

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Response to DBoon (Reply #10)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 05:37 PM

17. Foreign investment is huge. In the trillions.

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:00 PM

2. The Trump slump

We're in a massive corporate debt bubble - and P/E ratios are at 2007 levels.

Expect a "correction" in the next few months.

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:00 PM

3. Yep. Special cuts to promote buybacks of stocks, for which execs

who have stock options are making fortunes from the rising price of their corporate stock.

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:10 PM

4. According to whom? Link to a source?

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's most recent projection of the first quarter GDP has it at around 2.7. That's probably overly optimistic, but 1.2 is probably overly pessimistic.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow


Which may be why "stocks don't care."



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Response to onenote (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:31 PM

11. Survey of 11 forecasters


"A CNBC survey of 11 forecasters over the weekend finds first quarter GDP estimates averaging just 1.2%, down nearly a point from the fourth quarter.

Deutsche Bank shaved 0.3% off its first quarter number due to the coronavirus effects and 0.4% because of Boeing."


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/first-quarter-us-gdp-may-be-as-low-as-1point2percent-because-of-coronavirus-but-stocks-dont-seem-to-care.html

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:17 PM

5. Long over due correction(s)?

Probably inflated by all the wealthy folks having so much $ and battling with all the generic investment apparatuses for best prices, thus the gamesmanship of evil that man created is bloated almost like some guy we know?

Jan 21st just can't get here soon enough!

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Response to Brainfodder (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:19 PM

6. We're due for a massive correction, regardless of whom occupies the White House on Jan 21st.

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Response to AtheistCrusader (Reply #6)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:24 PM

7. YUP! But if wishing, how about 7/4/2020 for the Super Crash!

The damage done from it though, we will rise better off, so I keep that in mind.

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Response to Brainfodder (Reply #7)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 05:35 PM

16. Some of the 'doctrinaire' elliottwavers were predicting from last year, a 7/2020

market top for the S&P as I recall.

[The 'doctrinaire' rely on Fibonacci numbers. Many elliottwavers try and improve profitability by adjusting EW targets with various other indicators, sometimes many indicators].

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Response to Brainfodder (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:29 PM

9. No. Just analysts claiming that the coronavirus will drive down the GDP between now and end of March

They also predict a rebound in the second quarter.

Seems pretty speculative at this point. The Atlanta Fed, as of Friday, was still projecting a 2.7 GDP, which probably is overly optimistic. But 1.2 is probably overly pessimistic.

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:27 PM

8. IMPOTUS can't keep the Obama economy going, massive failure /nt

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:34 PM

12. Here's the link that the OP didn't provide. Prediction based on coronavirus impact

The posts in this thread are taking the prediction of 1.2% GDP growth in the first quarter (which isn't even half over yet), as being based on some market correction or crash that will continue through the year. In fact, if one bothered to look for and find the article on which the OP is based, one would see that the prediction flow from some analysts projection of the impact of the coronavirus and Boeing's problems and that the GDP will rebound by the second quarter:


"Concern about the coronavirus is weighing heavily on the outlook for first quarter growth and some forecasters suggest the equity market is not taking the threat as seriously as the bond market.

A CNBC survey of 11 forecasters over the weekend finds first quarter GDP estimates averaging just 1.2%, down nearly a point from the fourth quarter. Economists see a bounce back to 2% growth in the second quarter, depending on the severity of the virus both in China and in other countries."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/first-quarter-us-gdp-may-be-as-low-as-1point2percent-because-of-coronavirus-but-stocks-dont-seem-to-care.html

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:44 PM

13. Stocks don't seem to care because of that reckless tax cut

especially to corporations. They're doing massive stock buybacks, pumping the price for the executives and the major stockholders. The stock market is now completely divorced from the larger economy, which is not doing well.

The OP forgot the link, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/first-quarter-us-gdp-may-be-as-low-as-1point2percent-because-of-coronavirus-but-stocks-dont-seem-to-care.html

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 03:59 PM

14. Stocks love low interest rates and big tax cuts

it's artificially propped up. The next president will inherit a flaming pile of garbage and be blamed for it.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #14)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 05:12 PM

15. Isn't that always the GOP plan

Wreck the economy every time they are in power. Then use that as a reason to keep us from doing anything that helps the people plus blame us for the wreck. To many of the American people keep on buying there BS.

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Response to empedocles (Original post)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 06:19 PM

18. No link provided - locking

Sorry, I messaged you and you didn't edit, so time to lock.

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