The poll result that explains the election

[trailmonkee]

Source: washington post

The poll result that explains the election
by Ezra Klein on September 21, 2012

Washington has been a bit perplexed by President Obama’s small but persistent lead in the polls. His administration would seem to fail the “Are you better off than you were four years ago” text. And presidents who fail that test lose, right?

But perhaps that’s the wrong question. We focus on the question “Are you better off than you were four years ago” because we assume voters aren’t sophisticated enough to vote based on the right question, which is “are you better off than you would have been if the other party’s candidate had won the presidency four years ago?”

The conventional wisdom: Voters don’t do counterfactuals. “It could have been worse” is a losing message. That’s been the Romney campaign’s theory of the case, certainly, and many in the media have bought it. But perhaps we’re not giving voters enough credit.

The new Allstate/National Journal/Heartland Monitor poll tested this directly. First, they asked the standard “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” A plurality said they were not. Then they asked, “are you better off because Obama won in 2008? A plurality said they were. Here’s the graph:



Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/21/the-poll-result-that-explains-the-election/

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I can't believe this is the first time I have seen this question asked? it's a good one.

[DaveJ]

1. WE are better off.

So far we've started no new wars, no artificial financial bubbles, we have consumer protection laws, the auto industry was salvaged, gay people can be open in the military, the world doesn't hate our leader anymore. It's clear to me we're better off. And I personally am better off financially as well.

[bemildred]

2. Exactly. nt

[berni_mccoy]

3. I believe that most people who are not better off than they were 4 years ago

Place the blame appropriately with the Republicans in Congress.

[progressivebydesign]

4. I was so afraid the article was about Romney's unlikablility, was pleasantly surprised.

I braced myself for this to be an article about how the fact that Romney is so putrid, to explain the higher numbers for the President, which I reject. How nice to see something intelligent!!!!

I think the thing is that the American people see that the President is TRYING, and he's on the right track, and he's on their side. That's the message that has gotten through. Truly the Convention was spectacular in driving that home. Voters are becoming more educated and understanding of how we got here. They know that it's not the President's faul that we don't have the jobs we had before Bush took office. Pres. Obama has done a great job in reversed the losses, but Americans are starting to get that it's people like Romney and the fat cat republicans that caused the losses with their business practices and deregulation.

If we're lucky to get all Democrats controlling things again, we can get back to helping America create jobs. Because god knows that the corporations that are getting filthy rich sending our jobs to China and India don't give a fuck about American workers... at least a Democratic controlled govt will reward the small businesses, and take away the incentives for the assholes who send our jobs overseas. Hell, that oil industry tax subsidy would have paid for the Veteran's Job Bill four times over each year!!

[DaveJ]

8. People should understand Cons are trying to hurt the economy

Republicans do not want things to improve. You can see in the undertone of everything they say, that conservative business owners, investors, etc., do not plan on attempting to create jobs while Obama is President. The last Republican I spoke to said he started investing overseas after Obama was elected, and his investments did horribly. Other business owners have gone on hiring boycotts. Some say they are waiting for a Republican to make them "confident" in the economy, which is code for, we're boycotting any support for the economy while Obama is in office.

It's really amazing we're doing this well, considering Republicans have attempted to ruin the economy.

[Coyotl]

13. The Cons are trying to make off with as much capital as possible

The economy be damned, it is all me, me, me, me, ..... without even considering the economy or the sustainability of their greed impacted by their own actions.

[daleo]

15. This is sometimes referred to as a capital strike.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_strike

[DaveJ]

18. Thanks, I've wanted to research this more.

Some republicans deny it and some just do it unconsciously, since they lack moral fiber it's easy for them

[freshwest]

5. It fits my situation. It's about attitude. I have a third less income than I did 4 years ago. But..

I feel more secure about myself and those I know, who have also taken a large financial hit. We've all had to make harsh adjustments, but we feel it is shared. We knew the bill for the wars was coming due.

Others I know express they feel more accepted than they were 4 years ago, despite the hate rhetoric and the fear mongering and cost cutting. They've found ways to get by and are more satisfied since their solutions have brought them closer together with other people.

The attitude of the social services for those who need them is more respectful, which eases some of the pain for those having to use them. Other bureaucratic types seem to have remembered it's not about their careers, it's about service.

Not all satisfaction is about economic numbers or one's place in the rat race. That would be the Romney/Ryan mentality, who has the most chips on the table in a game of high stakes poker. But it's not a game. JMHO.

[SheilaT]

6. My personal life has been completely unaffected

by the election four years ago, so far as I can tell.

But absolutely our country is better off because Obama has been president. It's worse off in certain ways because of the incredibly obstructionist Republicans in Congress.

[azurnoir]

7. yep n/t

[savalez]

9. We would've been much better off if

Beohner did not become speaker in '10. Progress just came to a screeching halt.

[CheapShotArtist]

12. Democrats need to think of something

to get people motivated to turn out for them in the midterm elections, like maybe some lottery system.

[B Stieg]

10. Ezra is one smart dude.

[trailmonkee]

16. yep

[barbtries]

11. it's a no brainer.

gawd forbid palin in the white house or anywhere near it.

[socialindependocrat]

14. I've answered this as - not better - BUT....

I have thought abouyt my situation and

Gas costs more
food costs more
my electric costs more
my heating oil cost more
I am on a fixed income (retired)

But - on some polls that as for additional info at the end - I've said:

It is not because of President Obama.
I blame the Repukes blocking everything for the past 3 years
I blame businesses for not hiring in order to support the Repukes to make the Pres. look bad

Then I would watch TV and they would say - Oh my, the people don't feel the are better off
so Pres. Obama is in trouble - and I would scream at the TV - "NO YOU ASSES> YOU ARE INTERPRETING THE DATA INCORRECTLY!!"

So much for polls and the people who make them up.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

17. If McCain had won we wouldn't even hear about unemployment or the economy.

It would be 24/7 fear and National Security defined as endless war in the Middle East. Not only would we still be in Iraq but the bases there would have allowed our invasion and occupation of Iran and Right Wingers would STILL be claiming Liberals are on the side of the terrorists.

Remember, it wasn't that long ago when Tucker Carlson was claiming "the latest bin Laden video sounds like Democrat talking points."

Meanwhile "The future of the Republican Party" AKA Sarah Palin would be giving us plenty to be disgusted about as she winked her way into the hearts of Freepers everywhere.

[dreamnightwind]

19. That's right on - nt

[trailmonkee]

20. our lives would be very different today...

could only imagine