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Fri Sep 6, 2019, 07:33 AM

U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries

Source: Washington Post

The U.S. economy added a disappointing 130,000 in August, the Labor Department said Friday, heightening fears that Trump’s trade war is starting to bite and the U.S. economy is hitting a rough patch. Economists had predicted 160,000 job gains in August. Business owners say they are struggling to find people to hire, and they are growing increasingly nervous about President Trump’s trade war. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the lowest in nearly half a century, forcing employers to search harder for new workers.

Right now, the United States is a tale of two economies: The service sector remains strong with health care and business adding a lot of jobs in August. But industries like mining and manufacturing that depend heavily on selling items overseas are struggling. Manufacturing is already in a recession and the sector has added few jobs this year, a trend that continued in August. Mining employment fell by 6,000 jobs. Hiring in August was also boosted heavily by the U.S. government adding 25,000 temporary workers to its payrolls for the 2020 Census.

Most companies have already scaled back spending on buildings and equipment, and there is concern that they will now cease hiring, a move that could have harmful consequences to the U.S. economy since consumer spending drives so much of the U.S. economy. When Americans are fearful of losing their jobs, they tend to halt spending.

In the past three months, job gains averaged 156,000 a month, a noticeable downgrade from last year, when job gains averaged 192,000 a month. For now, Americans are spending because “we’re hiring!” signs still appear plentiful in many towns and pay is rising at many companies. Wages grew at an annual pace of 3.2 percent in August, well above inflation, although slightly slower than earlier this year.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/06/us-economy-adds-just-jobs-august-amid-worries-that-trade-war-has-sunk-its-teeth-into-hiring/



Full headline: U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries that trade war has sunk its teeth into hiring

Will be updating this as info comes in and will await DU's economic analysts to add their deeper dive! TGIF!

Original article and headline -

The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August, as hiring slowed sharply amid concerns that the economy is deteriorating

By Washington Post Staff
September 6 at 8:31 AM

Businesses, consumers and political leaders are watching for effects of the trade war on the economy, and the labor market's strength has been a key focus.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/09/06/the-u-s-economy-added-130000-jobs-in-august-as-hiring-slowed-sharply-amid-concerns-that-the-economy-is-deteriorating/

25 replies, 2206 views

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Reply U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 OP
bucolic_frolic Sep 2019 #1
duforsure Sep 2019 #6
durablend Sep 2019 #2
KY_EnviroGuy Sep 2019 #3
Lonestarblue Sep 2019 #4
progree Sep 2019 #5
BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #8
Dopers_Greed Sep 2019 #7
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2019 #9
BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #11
Grins Sep 2019 #10
BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #12
progree Sep 2019 #13
area51 Sep 2019 #14
progree Sep 2019 #15
Bengus81 Sep 2019 #16
BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #17
progree Sep 2019 #19
BlueIdaho Sep 2019 #18
CountAllVotes Sep 2019 #20
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2019 #21
BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #23
Brainfodder Sep 2019 #22
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2019 #24
BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #25

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 07:42 AM

1. Business investment is down

Who needs to invest? We still have overcapacity from QE1-2-3 and 0% capital for 10 years.

Some people are afraid to go to the store.

Not everyone feels the strong economy.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 08:13 AM

6. Manufacturing orders have dropped a lot also, another early and clear sign

Recession is here or coming very soon, and the puppet will claim the opposite again because it'll show his policies , his tax scam, and cuts on the poor and middle class have failed.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 08:00 AM

2. I can just see it now

That "1" will be changed to a "4" by the end of the day by a certain black Sharpie.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 08:03 AM

3. A "Service Economy" where fewer and fewer people can afford the services.

Not a lovely predicament to be in.......

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 08:06 AM

4. The news this morning is also that more than 20,000 of those jobs are temporary.

The 20,000+ jobs are government hiring to staff up for the census. Business added only 97,000 jobs—a pretty sharp decline when something like 150,000 total jobs were expected. Trump will accept a deal, any deal, with China maybe by the end of the year or early next year because no deal would be a drag on his reelection.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 08:11 AM

5. June and July were revised down by a combined 20,000, so only 110,000 more jobs

than in the July report that came out on August 2.

25,000 of the 110,000 net new jobs came from hiring temporary census workers.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
In August, employment in federal government increased by 28,000. The gain was mostly due to the hiring of 25,000 temporary workers to prepare for the 2020 Census.


BLS summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

BLS The Whole Thing: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

And now for the usual perverse reaction of Wall Street:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-august-jobs-payrolls-report-213225200.html
Investors cheered and stock futures rose as the weaker-than-expected jobs report all but cemented the possibility of a second interest rate cut.


But right now (937 AM ET) the Dow is a bit up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is a bit down

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Response to progree (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 08:46 AM

8. Thank you and good morning!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 08:22 AM

7. The vicious cycle begins

Bad economic news means that people will have less "consumer confidence" and spend less.

Which will cause companies will go heavy on layoffs, causing even more damage.

Both mean that no one will be able to pay down the massive amounts of debt that's out there, crashing the economy yet again.

Good thing we have the "King of Debt" steering the ship.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 09:55 AM

9. WH: "this month's job growth is nearly ten times higher than the job growth CBO had anticipated...."

The White House found a chart it could take a Sharpie to.

The chart is from 2016.

ECONOMY & JOBS

U.S. Unemployment Rate Remains at Near-Historic Low of 3.7 Percent; African-American Unemployment Rate Hits New Series Low

September 6, 2019 5 minute read

Council of Economic Advisers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Employment Situation Report, showcasing strong wage growth and steady employment growth. Total nonfarm payroll employment in August increased by 130,000 jobs. Including revisions for the months of June and July, the average pace of job growth has been a robust 173,000 jobs per month over the past year and 158,000 jobs per month so far in 2019. The CBO projected only 14,000 new jobs per month at this point in the cycle in its final pre-2016 election forecast, prior to enactment of the Administration’s pro-growth policies, so this month’s job growth is nearly ten times higher than the job growth CBO had anticipated for this quarter. In total, the economy has added over 6.3 million jobs since the President was elected, nearly 4.5 million more jobs than the CBO predicted would be created between the end of 2016 and the end of 2019:Q3 (figure 1).



{snip}

Other than that, good morning. I'll add more later on.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #9)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:20 AM

11. OMG



Good morning and TGIF to you!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:04 AM

10. August hiring boosted by 25,000 workers for the 2020 Census..?

Caught my eye:

"Hiring in August was also boosted heavily by the U.S. government adding 25,000 temporary workers to its payrolls for the 2020 Census."


When Obama hired temporary census workers in 2009 the Reich-wing screamed "Foul!" and "Fake!" and that those numbers should not be included in the jobs report. Worse, that it was done deliberately - at his direction.

“No matter what spin the White House puts on these job numbers, it is unacceptable for President Obama to declare economic success when unemployment remains at 9.7 percent and a large portion of the job growth came from temporary boost in government employment." - Bloated, foreign sex-tourist, Rush Limbaugh.

So following their very-malleable rules:
The expectation for August was 160,000.
It came in at 130,000, so 30,000 or 19% fewer.
Subtract (Their rules!!) the 25,000 temporary census workers = 105,000.
So they missed by 55,000, a whopping 34.4%.

Screaming from those same Reich-wingers on this...Oh, who's kidding whom?




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Response to Grins (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:22 AM

12. Since previous months have already been revised downwards

this month's will probably be revised down too... in the next month or two.

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Response to Grins (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:22 AM

13. And they revised June and July downward by a combined 20,000, so we only have

110,000 more jobs than were reported in last month's report that came out August 2.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:23 AM

14. I heard awhile back that we need 250k jobs created ea. month just to keep up w/pop. growth. n/t

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Response to area51 (Reply #14)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:26 AM

15. Never heard a number that high.

New York Times 8/2/19 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/02/business/economy/july-jobs-report.html
"as long as employers create roughly 100,000 jobs each month, the labor market can keep pace with population growth and the jobless rate will hold steady. "

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:42 AM

16. If Obama didn't add 250k per month he was TRASH TALKED by Republicans........

So their getting happy feet over this--which is actually 20k temp jobs for the census.

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Response to Bengus81 (Reply #16)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 10:58 AM

17. EXACTLY

I remember all the nonsense about his figures being "anemic".



(I like this article - https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-ink/2019/05/on-the-economy-obama-owns-trump/ )

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #17)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 11:05 AM

19. And 2018 and 2019 was even more anemic than 2017. (that graph only goes out to Feb 2018)

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

But darn, I can't update my table because its been very hit and miss accessing the BLS statistics, mostly miss, this morning.

This one is one I posted a month ago. It doesn't include the 501,000 revision downward reported last month for the previous year, but not included in the series (the BLS won't be including the revisions in their series above until the final revision in March 2020). And it's only through July.... But today's job report of +130,000 (and June and July revised downward by a combined 20,000) is only going to make the Trump numbers worse than shown below.

Summary: Average monthly net new jobs created
220,000    Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
191,000    Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
165,000    2019 so far (January through July)
141,000    February through July 2019

But this is something I figured this morning when I had access to the time series (again the numbers don't include the 501,000 downward revision reported last month) :

Summary: Average monthly net new jobs created
223,000   2018
173,000   Last 12 months (September 2018 thru August 2019)
158,000   This year so far (Jan thru Aug)
136,000   Last 7 months (Feb thru Aug)
156,000   Last 3 months


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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 11:00 AM

18. These numbers will be revised downward.

You can bet on it.

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Response to BlueIdaho (Reply #18)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 12:32 PM

20. +1



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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 03:17 PM

21. Analysis: Weaker job report in August 'cements' a Fed interest-rate cut in two weeks

Weaker job report in August ‘cements’ a Fed interest-rate cut in two weeks
MarketWatch

Published: Sept 6, 2019 11:18 a.m. ET

Analysts see quarter-point move on Sept. 18

By GREG ROBB, SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER

The weaker-than-expected August job report makes it all-but-certain the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point at their meeting in two weeks, economists said Friday.

“A weak payrolls print all but cements a Fed rate cut in two weeks,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note to clients.

Read: U.S. creates just 130,000 new jobs in August

Brian Bethune, an economist at Tufts University, agreed: “There are enough doves to get another rate cut done.”

The doves are getting the upper-hand because the economy is slowing down more than the Fed expected, Bethune said. He sees growth running at a 1.5% annual rate in the third quarter, down from a 2.5% pace over the first half.
....

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #21)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 04:50 PM

23. "He sees growth running at a 1.5% annual rate in the third quarter, down from a 2.5% pace"

It was supposed to be "4%, 5%, even 6%!!!111!!!11!!".

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 6, 2019, 03:31 PM

22. What % of those jobs are permanent with healthcare benefits?

Aka, fairly called jobs with fair compensation?

It's probably even lower than I think.















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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Sat Sep 7, 2019, 03:25 PM

24. Links to earlier reports:

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2019:

Survey: Businesses added a solid 195,000 jobs in August

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2019:

U.S. Added 164,000 Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2019:

ADP says 156,000 private-sector jobs added created in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2019:

Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June;unemployment rate inched up to 3.7 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2019:

U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2019:

The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May amid bite from Trump's trade war

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2019:

ADP private-sector job growth tumbles to a 9-year low in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. unemployment fell to 3.6 percent, lowest since 1969

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 275,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2019:

Private sector hiring falls to 18-month low, and manufacturing sheds jobs, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2019:

U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2019:

U.S. creates 304,000 jobs in January, unemployment rises to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2019:

U.S. added 213,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 312,000 in December; unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2018:

U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:

U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:

Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #24)

Sat Sep 7, 2019, 04:58 PM

25. Thank you!!

Hope you are enjoying the weekend.

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