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Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:32 AM

UPDATE: Stocks tank as another recession warning surfaces

Last edited Wed Aug 14, 2019, 04:11 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: Washington Post

U.S. stocks tumbled at open Wednesday after the inverted yield curve, one of the most reliable indicators of a recession, sparked a new wave of investor fears, erasing the short-lived bump from Tuesday's trade easing.

For the first time since 2007, the yields on short-term U.S. bonds eclipsed those of long-term bonds. This phenomenon, which suggests investors' faith in the economy is faltering, has preceded every recession in the last 50 years. Recessions typically come within 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inverts, according to research from Credit Suisse. "The 3-month Treasury bill to 10-year note curve has been inverted for weeks now and with the inversion of the 2-year to 10-year curve. The stars are aligned across the curve that the economy is headed for a big fall," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "The yield curves are all crying timber that a recession is almost a reality, and investors are tripping over themselves to get out of the way."

The Dow Jones industrial average slumped nearly 400 points at open Wednesday, a day after it notched its best performance in two months. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down more than 1.4 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down more than 1.6 percent. Bank stocks slumped off the news. Bank of America and Citigroup saw their shares sink more than 3 percent and JP Morgan's shares fell 2.6 percent. Gold, a safe-haven for investors, rose. And the influx of investors scrambling for safety pushed U.S. 30-year Treasury yields to their lowest level ever.

Darkening skies overseas gave investors more to worry about. Germany announced Wednesday that its economy had shrunk, blaming the drop-off on the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war and the looming threat of a hard Brexit. The European Stoxx 600 benchmark was down nearly 6 percent in midday trading. China reported more signs of a weakening economy Wednesday, with high unemployment and lower production and investment markers, fanning the flames of fears about a broader global slowdown as the protracted trade conflict appears to be stalling some of the world's most powerful economies.


Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/stocks-tank-another-recession-warning-surfaces/



UPDATE at the close -

Stocks losses deepen as a key recession warning surfaces

By Damian Paletta, Thomas Heath and Taylor Telford
August 14 at 4:02 PM

The global economy has begun to shudder. On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market tumbled after a reliable predictor of looming recessions flashed for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. The Dow Jones industrial average fell around 800 points, or 3 percent, and has lost close to 7 percent in the past three weeks.

Two of the world's largest economies, Germany and the United Kingdom, appear to be contracting. Argentina's stock market fell nearly 50 percent in recent days, and growth in China has slowed.

Whether the events presage an economic calamity or just an alarming spasm are unclear. But unlike during the Great Recession, global leaders are not working in unison to confront mounting problems and arrest the slowdown. Instead, they are increasingly at each other's throats. And President Trump has responded by both claiming the economy is still thriving while dramatically ramping up his attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, seeking to deflect blame.

Wednesday's sharp selloff was caused by an unusual development in the bond market, called an "inverted yield curve," that often foreshadows a recession.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/stocks-tank-another-recession-warning-surfaces/



Original article and headline -

U.S. markets tumble after key indicator triggers recession worries

By Washington Post Staff
August 14 at 9:30 AM

All major stock indexes sank after the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell below the rate on the 2-year Treasury bond.

This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, has been a reliable, early indicator of a recession. It last occurred before the 2008 Great Recession.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/08/14/u-s-markets-tumble-after-key-indicator-triggers-recession-worries/



From Marketwatch this morning -

The U.S. Treasury 2-10 year yield curve inverted and that means stocks are on 'borrowed time,' says BAML

Published: Aug 14, 2019 6:58 a.m. ET

The U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, -4.62% traded above the 10-year note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -5.75% for the first time in over a decade early Wednesday, reinforcing recession worries. The flattening of the main measure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve already spelled trouble for stock-market investors that have been on the back foot from escalating geopolitical concerns and simmering trade tensions, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a Tuesday note ahead of the inversion.

The inversion of the main measure of the yield curve, or a negative spread between short-term and long-term yields, means a recession indicator is flashing red. "The equity market is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts," the BAML strategists wrote. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was down 5.7 basis points at 1.619%, according to FactSet, while the 2-year yield was off 4.1 basis points at 1.628%.

An inverted yield curve often serves as a prelude to a recession because it indicates when monetary policy and financial conditions are too tight for the broader economy. A yield curve inversion along the 2-year/10-year spread has come before the last seven recessions. Still, the widely varying lag times between an inversion and an economic downturn makes it difficult to say if an inverted curve points to an imminent slowdown in growth.

Other yield curve measures have already inverted this year. Since May, the 3-month/10-year spread measure utilized by the New York Federal Reserve to analyze recession probabilities has been mostly stuck in negative territory. But investors had previously pointed to the lack of an inversion on the 2-year/10-year spread as a sign that the bond-market was not pointing to a shuddering halt to economic growth. Rather, it suggested hopes that the Federal Reserve would secure a soft-landing for a U.S. economy through "insurance" interest rate cuts.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-treasury-2-10-year-yield-spread-is-about-to-invert-and-that-means-stocks-are-on-borrowed-time-says-baml-2019-08-13?modmw_theo_homepage




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Arrow 52 replies Author Time Post
Reply UPDATE: Stocks tank as another recession warning surfaces (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Wednesday OP
bucolic_frolic Wednesday #1
BumRushDaShow Wednesday #2
ck4829 Thursday #49
RAB910 Wednesday #3
Botany Wednesday #4
Wellstone ruled Wednesday #27
IronLionZion Wednesday #5
Botany Wednesday #6
dalton99a Wednesday #10
ck4829 Thursday #48
NCjack Wednesday #7
blue-wave Wednesday #35
AtheistCrusader Wednesday #9
IronLionZion Wednesday #11
Cosmocat Wednesday #16
ck4829 Thursday #50
Yavin4 Wednesday #8
maddogesq Wednesday #12
Cosmocat Wednesday #17
Midnight Writer Wednesday #34
Joe Nation Wednesday #13
DrToast Wednesday #14
Frustratedlady Wednesday #28
ck4829 Thursday #47
Iliyah Wednesday #15
NickB79 Wednesday #18
mwooldri Wednesday #19
Iliyah Wednesday #21
Fiendish Thingy Wednesday #20
DrToast Wednesday #22
Fiendish Thingy Wednesday #32
DrToast Wednesday #38
Fiendish Thingy Wednesday #40
DrToast Wednesday #41
yaesu Wednesday #23
Sneederbunk Wednesday #30
TalenaGor Wednesday #24
sandensea Wednesday #25
ProudMNDemocrat Wednesday #26
ck4829 Thursday #46
yaesu Wednesday #29
SunSeeker Wednesday #31
onenote Wednesday #42
former9thward Thursday #51
MontanaMama Wednesday #33
bucolic_frolic Wednesday #36
question everything Wednesday #37
ck4829 Thursday #45
IronLionZion Wednesday #39
ck4829 Thursday #44
ck4829 Thursday #43
Bengus81 Thursday #52

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:33 AM

1. Economic BOOM!

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:37 AM

2. Yup - just added the Marketwatch analysis as well...

I hope more take notice and not ignore these things like they did in 2007.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 08:04 AM

49. BURST

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:48 AM

3. Welcome to the Trump Slump/GOP Recession

At least the rich got those tax cuts

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:56 AM

4. Trump doubles down: 'Trade wars are good, and easy to win'

Trump doubles down: 'Trade wars are good, and easy to win'

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/trump-trade-wars-are-good-and-easy-to-win.html March 2018


Stocks plunged this afternoon in Wall Street’s worst day of the year, as the trade war between the United States and China entered a dangerous new phase that could imperil the historic U.S. recovery.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both fell 3 percent. Oil crashed. The spread between three-month and 10-year Treasury rates—the “yield curve,” which has historically served as a prescient indicator of the economy—inverted to its widest level since 2007, the year the U.S. fell into the Great Recession. August 2019

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/trade-wars-are-not-good-or-easy-win/595546/

******

U.S. Farmers Stung by Tariffs Now Face a $3.5 Billion Corn Loss

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142354544

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Response to Botany (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:16 AM

27. Your reference to the Corn numbers

was exposed at Farm Fest last week. The fellow from the Corn Growers Association blew Purdue out of the water for deliberately under reporting the Corn in Storage numbers in order to score political points and keeping the Corn Futures market from collapse. And the Acreage planted was also shorted on purpose.

This is not the first time for a GOP Secretary of Ag to pull this stunt. Reagan/Bush did the same,and we had the 91-93' recession.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:57 AM

5. Maybe it's happening sooner than they expected

If the US enters recession before the election, Trump will be finished. Watch for him to bully the Fed into another rate cut. They can't prop things up artificially for much longer. Rates are low, so there's less room to lower them for the next recession.

Dude's trade war is bad for everyone. His tax cuts haven't helped much and leaves less revenue to provide stimulus in the next recession. His hostile immigration policies are damaging America's economy. Rural America hasn't seen much improvement. Farmers have been screwed over. Not many coal and manufacturing jobs have come back.

Not many multinational corporations have "repatriated" their overseas profits like Trump falsely promised in his tax plan. That's not a thing. Ask anyone who knows corporate accounting and finance.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:01 AM

6. I wonder if Trump is crashing the economy on Putin's orders?

I wonder on how are those mid west farmers that work their fields in their big
air conditioned tractors (hey I support the A.C.) as they listen to Rush and Hannity
feel now?

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Response to Botany (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:16 AM

10. A reasonable assumption

No major decision is made without Putin's knowledge or input, or fear of his veto

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Response to Botany (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 08:03 AM

48. That's not all the way "out there"

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:04 AM

7. geniusNOT-#45, who will try every shortcut trick imaginable, may actually bully the

Fed into giving negative interest rate. Yep -- if you are MAGAt business, your company may be eligible for the new Trump gift. Receive loans and the have the US Treasury pay you interest.

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Response to NCjack (Reply #7)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:26 PM

35. Some countries have already gone negative

with interest rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_central_bank_interest_rates


And yes, they would discount your mortgage loan if buying a home, but you would have to pay the bank to keep money on deposit. Yes, there will be disincentive to save or invest money in certain ways to continue the growing bubble. But what a HUUUUGE bubble!

An explanation of how negative rates work:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070915/how-negative-interest-rates-work.asp

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:08 AM

9. Unclear.

I remain unconvinced that his base is smart enough to notice/understand, and also not fall for buckets of 'We inherited a broken economy from Obama' rhetoric.

I mean, don't underestimate. They elected him in the first place, after all.

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Response to AtheistCrusader (Reply #9)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:22 AM

11. He's doubled down on culture wars

to convince them that liberals are ruining their lives by banning everything they like. Most Trump voters are deplorable, but I would hope some would wise up to make a difference in key states.

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Response to AtheistCrusader (Reply #9)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:38 AM

16. ASSUREDLY, 100%

they ARE going to blame the liberal boogyman.

It will not be his fault, and he will be a poor victim.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 08:05 AM

50. It is

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:08 AM

8. Good time to be a day trader.

Bad time to be an investor.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:24 AM

12. YEPPERS!

And I cashed in my play $ stock holdings and took small profit two weeks ago. It will be awhile before I play again.

Even the strong economy that The Orange Turd inherited cannot hold up with a rising deficit, tariffs, bullshit—I mean Brexit—and so on.

The Fed isn’t without fault either. They should have raised rates as soon as Donnybrook took office.

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Response to maddogesq (Reply #12)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:39 AM

17. I am still contributing to my IRAs

but keeping it in cash ...

We are LONG overdue for a pretty strong correction.

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:05 PM

34. Exactly. Volatility is the friend of the trader. Stability is his enemy.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:28 AM

13. This is why I have been in gold for the past year

I've made tens of thousands of dollars a month banking on the prospect that everything Trump touches goes straight to hell. My and my wife's IRAs are looking pretty good these days. Always bank on Trump to fail.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:29 AM

14. Looks like a Democrat will be required to pick up the pieces...

...of a crashed economy again. This is getting old.

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Response to DrToast (Reply #14)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:25 AM

28. That, along with a whole bunch of other issues/programs he's repealed because they were Obama's.

It is going to cost the Democrats/country a ton to put everything back in order and it isn't only the economy.

Trump has set us back so far, it will take forever to repair. The next 14-15 months will be crucial, because he will be trying to appease his base and God only knows what else he will screw up in the process.

Make America Groan Again!

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Response to DrToast (Reply #14)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 08:02 AM

47. You know it

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:35 AM

15. Geez, they say it won't happen for another

22 months . . . or soooooooooooooooooo.

Sounds it is slowly happening now.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:47 AM

18. This has the potential to be worse than the Great Recession

Back then, China's economy was strong enough to keep the global market from crashing entirely. This time around, thanks to Trump's sanctions, they may not be able to hold the line.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:47 AM

19. It does feel "recession"-y...

The company I work for has curtailed hiring in my division, and drivers are sticking it out longer. Some drivers in the flatbed division are complaining of fewer loads. I don't expect any layoffs or stuff like that because people still need stuff moved and there is still a nationwide shortage of truck drivers.

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Response to mwooldri (Reply #19)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:52 AM

21. That's good to hear about your job . .

Side note: Seems like every time the GOP takes office in the WH and one if not both branches, the USA's economy tanks.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:50 AM

20. 18-24 months will put the recession after the 2020 election

Although the economy could be in a downturn by next fall, the 2quarters of negative GDP required to call a recession wouldn't be completed until after the election, if this predictor is accurate.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #20)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:56 AM

22. "2quarters of negative GDP"

That’s not what a recession is. For example, the 2001 recession did not have two consecutive quarters of negative growth.


https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession

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Response to DrToast (Reply #22)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:46 AM

32. From the OED:


re·ces·sion
/rəˈseSH(ən/
Learn to pronounce
noun
1.
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

I guess you could split hairs between the nuance between “fall” and “negative”, but otherwise, my statement was accurate.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #32)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 03:39 PM

38. Nope.

You said 2 quarters of negative GDP is required to call a recession. That is flat out false.

The BEA is the official recession dater in the United States. As indicated in my previous link, you do not need two consecutive quarters of negative GDP in order for their to be a recession.

By the “two quarters” standard, there wasn’t a recession after the tech bubble burst in 2001. I think we can all agree that there was definitely a recession in 2001.

I’m not trying to embarrass anyone. It’s just a common misconception and I thought people would be interested in reading how recessions are actually dated.

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Response to DrToast (Reply #38)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 04:24 PM

40. Well, I guess you know better than the OED

And the majority of economists and just plain folks who follow that standard definition.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #40)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 04:30 PM

41. It's not that I know better than OED

It’s that the people who actually decide when recessions occur do.

Take it up with them.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:02 AM

23. Thom Hartmann warned about this yesterday

also, the tRump tax break stock buybacks are coming to an end, no incentive to buy stocks, lots of reasons to sell.

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Response to yaesu (Reply #23)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:38 AM

30. Thom Hartmann wrote a book forecasting a crash in 2016.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:04 AM

24. im scared...i lost everything in the last one :(

I was two inches from homeless for three years..

I make good money, but I'm still paying off debt from that recession....my hubby at the time and I both worked in the housing market - he in construction and me in real estate (I was a new agent) and also flooring....we both got laid off - my listings wouldn't sell - they were over priced and the sellers couldn't lower the prices cause they were up side down.....under pressure from my broker i ran up credit cards trying to get those sold....didn't work....the hubby sank into severe alcoholism and I left for my own safety.....I no longer had any money, a house, a husband, a job.....i had a little bit of unemployment is all....i completely started over - rented a room from a family, wound up in an unhealthy relationship just because the guy and I couldn't afford to live separately....

three years after I left - I got a job

Im still paying off the judgements, I'm paycheck to paycheck still even though I now have a husband, house + car again.....I'm the breadwinner of the house - left real estate/housing - back in HR at a bio-research organization....

sometimes I get really angry - that ive played by the rules - ive worked so hard for 35 years....and this threat hangs over our heads every time a republican gets in the white house....

all he had to do was nothing....


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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:06 AM

25. I bet Cheeto, his brood, and his accomplices have been selling short like there's no tomorrow

Everything's a racket to these miscreants.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:12 AM

26. When the Dow reaches the UNDER 20,000 mark....it's a RECESSION...

There's your indicator people. Proof that Wall Street made out like bandits as Main Street closes up shop.

What will the Orange Pile of Shit say next? It's China's fault?

So much winning....

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Response to ProudMNDemocrat (Reply #26)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 08:01 AM

46. That's just an arbitrarily made number. It's possible we're in a recession right now

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:37 AM

29. Contact with Martians destroying capitalism in just a few days

watching a B movie this morning, in the background while doing other things and it did a good job pointing out how fragile, how corrosive a world dominated by capitalism is. The 1952 movie, Red Planet Mars, is about an American scientist who makes contact with Martians, Government gets involved, communications established. We find out Martians live to over 300 earth years, our insurance annuity markets collapse, we find out they can feed 1000 Martians on one acre of produce, our farming sector collapses, they don't use oil, coal, only solar and those industries collapse, steel industry collapses from lack of coal, followed by banks, ect... Martial Law, riots, ect...

The story line sidetracked after that into the cold war, religion but it struck me how perfectly it showed what a fragile system we live under. The power elite went nuts, money becoming virtually worthless, amazing. It was pretty forward thinking for the day.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:41 AM

31. My 401k hasn't looked so bad since the Great Recession.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #31)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:40 PM

42. You must have a terrible 401k

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #31)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 07:02 PM

51. Fire whoever you have your 401k with.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:56 AM

33. I don't have the stomach for the stock market anymore.

I have an appointment today with my financial advisor. I plan to move half the money I have in stocks into mutual funds.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 01:21 PM

36. Markets don't like uncertainty - will there be tariffs, or no, or later, and on what?

Consumers are tightening up too, same motivation.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #36)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 01:36 PM

37. Right. And with such a volatile Whiny Donny

this is a reflection.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #36)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 07:59 AM

45. Yep

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 03:54 PM

39. Trump supporters should invest everything in steel and coal stocks

Since Trump is bringing back so many jobs in those areas.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #39)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 07:59 AM

44. Ouch

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 07:59 AM

43. K&R

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Thu Aug 15, 2019, 07:24 PM

52. Don't worry,someone will be along soon to tell you how much it's gone up under Trump....

Facts are it's performing worse than under Obama and has gone sideways or DOWN since Jan 2018 when it was 26,616.

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