U.S. Added 164,000 Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 10,000 from +72,000 to +62,000, and the change for June was revised down by 31,000 from +224,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 41,000 less than previously reported.

After revisions, job gains have averaged +140,000 per month over the last 3 months.

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Payroll employment increases by 164,000 in July; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

Economic News Release USDL-19-1388

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, August 2, 2019

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2019


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in July, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 6.1 million. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Asians increased to 2.8 percent in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.4 percent), adult women (3.4 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In July, the number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks increased by 240,000 to 2.2 million, while the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 accounted for 19.2 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

In July, the labor force participation rate was 63.0 percent, and the employment- population ratio was 60.7 percent. Both measures were little changed over the month and over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 363,000 in July to 4.0 million. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full- time jobs. Over the past 12 months, the number of involuntary part-time workers has declined by 604,000. (See table A-8.)

In July, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 368,000 discouraged workers in July, down by 144,000 from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in July had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in July, in line with average employment growth in the first 6 months of the year. In 2018, employment gains had averaged 223,000 per month. In July, notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services (+31,000), health care (+30,000), social assistance (+20,000), and financial activities (+18,000). (See table B-1.)

Professional and technical services added 31,000 jobs in July, bringing the 12-month job gain to 300,000. In July, employment increased by 11,000 in computer systems design and related services; this industry accounted for about one-third of employment growth in professional and technical services both over the month and over the year.

Employment in health care rose by 30,000 over the month, reflecting a gain in ambulatory health care services (+29,000). Health care employment has increased by 405,000 over the year, with ambulatory health care services accounting for about two-thirds of the gain.

Social assistance added 20,000 jobs in July. Employment in this industry has increased by 143,000 over the year.

In July, financial activities employment rose by 18,000, with most of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+11,000).

Mining employment declined by 5,000 in July, after showing little net change in recent months.

Manufacturing employment changed little in July (+16,000) and thus far in 2019. Job gains in the industry had averaged 22,000 per month in 2018.

Employment in other major industries, including construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little over the month.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $27.98, following an 8-cent gain in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 4 cents to $23.46. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in July. In manufacturing, the average workweek decreased by 0.3 hour to 40.4 hours, and overtime declined by 0.2 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees declined by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 10,000 from +72,000 to +62,000, and the change for June was revised down by 31,000 from +224,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 41,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions resultfrom additional reports received from businesses and government agencies sincethe last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged +140,000 per month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 6, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).


_______________________________________________________________________

2019 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data to be released on August 21, 2019

Each year, the establishment survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. On August 21, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision. This is the same day the first-quarter 2019 data from QCEW will be issued. Preliminary benchmark revisions for all major industry sectors, as well as total nonfarm and total private employment, will be available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm.

The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release in February 2020.

There's an undercurrent of something going on that I can't put my finger definitely on yet - i.e., something as sinister as a significant uptick in coordinated armed robberies - including where I live - the manner of which suggests whole criminal operations have set up shop in this city

ECONOMY & JOBS

U.S. Economy Added 164,000 New Jobs in July; Nominal Average Wages Increased 3.2 Percent Over the Past 12 Months
August 2, 2019 4 minute read

Council of Economic Advisers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Employment Situation Report, showcasing robust employment and an acceleration in wage growth. Total nonfarm payroll employment in July increased by 164,000 jobs, in line with market expectations (165,000). Including revisions for the months of May and June, the average pace of job growth has been a vigorous 187,000 jobs per month over the past year and 165,000 jobs so far in 2019, which is higher than CBO or the Federal Reserve anticipated for this cycle. The 12-month average remains above the 2017 average of 179,000 jobs gained per month. In total, the economy has added over 6.2 million jobs since the President was elected.



The July jobs report revealed yet another month of strong job growth. Since the President was elected, job gains have surpassed 100,000 jobs in 29 of the 32 months. The average job growth over the past 6 months is a healthy 141,000 jobs. Considering the unprecedented length of the expansion, job gains are strong. In July 2019, just over 6 million people were unemployed, compared with more than 14 million in July 2009 at the beginning of the economic expansion. Given low unemployment, monthly job gains of this size indicate that the labor market is truly flourishing.

Education and health services industry led job growth in July adding 66,000 jobs. The professional and business services sector saw the second largest job growth, an increase of 38,000 jobs. Manufacturing jobs increased as well, gaining 16,000 jobs in July, including 7,200 jobs in motor vehicle and parts manufacturing. Since the President’s election, the manufacturing industry has added 523,000 jobs and added 157,000 jobs in the past 12 months.

In July, wages continued to grow as well. Nominal average hourly earnings rose 3.2 percent over the past 12 months, marking the 12th straight month that year-over-year wage gains were at or above 3 percent (see figure). Prior to 2018, nominal average hourly wage gains had not reached 3 percent in over 10 years (since April 2009). Nominal wage growth has accelerated since the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). When taking inflation into account, there is evidence that real wages are also growing. Based on the most recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data from June, inflation in the past year was 1.4 percent, and based on the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) price data from June, the inflation in the past year was 1.6 percent (July inflation data is not yet available for either series).

A separate household survey released by BLS shows that the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent in July, making July the 17th consecutive month at or below 4 percent. The labor market also continues to benefit all Americans. The African American unemployment rate remained at 6.0 percent, just above the historic low of 5.9 percent set in May 2018, and the African-American teen unemployment rate dropped to its lowest rate since the series began in 1972. The U-6 unemployment rate, which is a broader measure of underutilization in the labor market that includes those looking for work, marginally attached to the labor force, and part-time for economic reasons, hit 7.0 percent, its lowest point since 2000.

The labor force participation rate—which includes people who are working and those looking for work—edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 63.0 percent and is 0.3 percentage point above the rate when the President was elected in November 2016. The labor force participation rate for prime-age adults (ages 25-54), which largely avoids the demographic effects of the aging population, decreased by 0.2 percentage point to at 82.0 percent—0.6 percentage point above its rate in November 2016.

The Trump Administration’s pro-growth policies continue to pull workers off the sidelines and foster a prosperous economy. Despite the continued low unemployment rates over the past year, there may still be workers on the sidelines, a situation economists refer to as “labor slack.” Because labor market slack still exists, employment can continue to rise and the economy can continue to grow as workers reenter the labor force. In July, 73.8 percent of workers entering employment came from out of the labor force rather than from unemployment.

The July employment data demonstrate that the American economy remains strong, with a consistently low unemployment rate, strong wage growth, and robust job gains.

The labor force participation rate—which includes people who are working and those looking for work—edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 63.0 percent and is 0.3 percentage point above the rate when the President was elected in November 2016. The labor force participation rate for prime-age adults (ages 25-54), which largely avoids the demographic effects of the aging population, decreased by 0.2 percentage point to at 82.0 percent—0.6 percentage point above its rate in November 2016.

White House PR is noting that the LFPR is edging up.

January 31, 2018
More adults now share their living space, driven in part by parents living with their adult children




Adults who live in someone else’s household typically live with a relative. Today, 14% of adults living in someone else’s household are a parent of the household head, up from 7% in 1995. Some 47% of extra adults today are adult children living in their mom and/or dad’s home, down from 52% in 1995. Other examples of extra adults are a sibling living in the home of a brother or sister, or a roommate.

In 2017, only 18% of extra adults lived in a household in which the head was unrelated (typically a housemate or roommate). Living with nonrelatives has become less prevalent since 1995, when 22% of extra adults lived with a nonrelative.

Regardless of their relationship to the household head, young adults are more likely than middle-aged or older adults to live in someone else’s household. Among those younger than 35, 30% were the extra adult in someone else’s household in 2017, up from 26% in 1995. Among 35- to 54-year-olds, 12% were living in someone else’s household, an increase from 9% in 1995. Today 10% of 55- to 64-year-olds are an extra adult, up from 6% in 1995. The only adult group that isn’t more likely than before to live in another adult’s household is those ages 75 and older (10% in both years).

The rise in shared living may have implications for the nature of household finances – that is, how income and expenses are shared among members.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/31/more-adults-now-share-their-living-space-driven-in-part-by-parents-living-with-their-adult-children/

Economic News Release
Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation

Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.


Statement of

William W. Beach
Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Friday, August 2, 2019


Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

The July increase in payroll employment was in line with the average monthly job gain in the first half of the year (+165,000), but below the average monthly job gain of 223,000 for 2018. (Incorporating revisions for May and June, which decreased employment by 41,000, monthly job gains have averaged 140,000 over the past 3 months.)
....

Among the unemployed, the number of people looking for work for less than 5 weeks rose by 240,000 in July to 2.2 million. This was offset by a decline in the number of people searching for work for 27 weeks or more, which fell by 248,000 to 1.2 million. These long-term unemployed accounted for 19.2 percent of the unemployed.

Both the labor force participation rate, at 63.0 percent in July, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.7 percent, were little changed over the month and over the year.

In July, 4.0 million people were working part time for economic reasons, down by 363,000 over the month and by 604,000 over the year. These involuntary part-time workers accounted for 2.5 percent of the employed in July, down from 2.9 percent a year earlier.

Among those neither working nor looking for work in July, 1.5 million were considered marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (People who are marginally attached to the labor force had not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey but wanted a job, were available for work, and had looked for a job within the last 12 months.) Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed no jobs were available for them, numbered 368,000 in July, down by 144,000 from a year earlier.

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent.

How to get around the paywall to read articles in The Wall Street Journal.:

For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., try going in through the authors' Twitter feeds:

State of the Labor Market

July 2019 Jobs Report: Solid but Not Sensational Job Growth
August 2, 2019 by Martha Gimbel | https://twitter.com/marthagimbel

State of the Labor Market

Jobs Day Preview: With Job Growth Slowing Down, Where Are the Bright Spots?
July 30, 2019 by Martha Gimbel | https://twitter.com/marthagimbel

Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)

CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement

In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2020 with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of -501,000 (-0.3 percent).

Preliminary benchmark revisions are calculated only for the month of March 2019 for the major industry sectors in table 1. The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued.

Table 1 shows the March 2019 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level.

{snip the charts}

Last Modified Date: August 21, 2019