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Fri Jul 5, 2019, 08:37 AM

Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June;unemployment rate inched up to 3.7 percent

Source: Washington Post



The U.S. economy added 224,000 jobs in June, surging past expectations and helping ease fears about the nation’s economic health in the midst of President Trump’s trade war.

The U.S. unemployment rate rose slightly, to 3.7 percent, the Labor Department said, but remains near a half-century low. The tight labor market has compelled many employers to offer more perks and higher pay to find and retain good workers. The unemployment rate has been at or below 4 percent for more than a year.

The strong employment gains exceeded analysts’ expectations of 162,000 jobs in June and represent a significant rebound from the meager 72,000 jobs added in May, which sparked off fears that the economy might be losing momentum.

Jobs gains were broad-based, with professional services, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing all seeing large bumps in hiring. Manufacturing added 17,000 jobs in May, a notable increase after several months of little change.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/05/hiring-rebounds-us-economy-adds-jobs-june-unemployment-rate-inched-up-percent/?utm_term=.681e3eb87a17



Stay tuned. Our regular DU economic analysis folks should be along today to provide the details as they go through the reports!

Original headline/article -

Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June; unemployment rate at 3.7 percent

By Washington Post Staff
July 5 at 8:33 AM

The strong employment gains exceeded analysts' expectations and helped ease fears about the nation's economic health in the midst of President Trump's trade war. The U.S. unemployment rate has hovered at or below 4 percent for more than a year.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/07/05/hiring-rebounds-as-u-s-economy-adds-224000-jobs-in-june-unemployment-rate-at-3-7-percent/?utm_term=.152959d410c8

30 replies, 2981 views

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Reply Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June;unemployment rate inched up to 3.7 percent (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Jul 2019 OP
JustAnotherGen Jul 2019 #1
BumRushDaShow Jul 2019 #2
oldsoftie Jul 2019 #21
BumRushDaShow Jul 2019 #25
progree Jul 2019 #30
former9thward Jul 2019 #3
JustAnotherGen Jul 2019 #4
Bengus81 Jul 2019 #8
Yavin4 Jul 2019 #14
former9thward Jul 2019 #20
oldsoftie Jul 2019 #22
maddogesq Jul 2019 #5
progree Jul 2019 #6
angstlessk Jul 2019 #7
Igel Jul 2019 #11
secondwind Jul 2019 #9
progree Jul 2019 #10
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2019 #12
BumRushDaShow Jul 2019 #13
maddogesq Jul 2019 #15
Politicub Jul 2019 #16
BlueIdaho Jul 2019 #17
Politicub Jul 2019 #18
oldsoftie Jul 2019 #23
Politicub Jul 2019 #27
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2019 #19
zanana1 Jul 2019 #24
progree Jul 2019 #28
Cary Jul 2019 #26
progree Jul 2019 #29

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 08:49 AM

1. What kind of jobs?

Seasonal? The Great and Finger Lakes and North East Coastal Shores opened for the summer in late May?

Are ANY of these jobs paying higher than the minimum wage?I

Do they provide benefits?

If low paying - does the person have to work two of these jobs?

Just a few quiet we should all ask.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 08:56 AM

2. When Obama had these numbers of jobs created reported in a month

the media almost unanimously called it "anemic" or "weak" or "slow"... Yet the NYT twitter headline calls this "robust" (of course under a different President).



TEXT
The New York Times

@nytimes

Breaking News: The U.S. economy added 224,000 jobs in June, returning to a robust hiring pace after a weak May. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% https://nyti.ms/2Jd6WaJ

8:40 AM - Jul 5, 2019

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #2)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 07:58 AM

21. It all depends on what was "projected". 150k can seem "robust" if you were only expecting 100k

But this month follows a few very WEAK ones.

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #21)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 09:35 AM

25. Unfortunately back then

it still didn't matter. Occasionally he would get a nod if it went beyond expectations but then they dismissed it to focus on "expectations of 'higher growth'" (consistently in the 3% range vs the 2% range) as a better barometer to call it a "robust" recovery and economy.

We heard from the current occupant of the WH before his term started, as well all during it, promising that there would 4% "growth" during his administration (and notably to offset the $1.5 trillion tax cut for the wealthy). Yet we haven't seen anything near that and the business media won't pound that as their ultimate "expectation" in order to consider this anything that is "robust".

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #21)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 01:05 PM

30. Yes, January through June, only 172,000/mo average. February thru June, only 144,000/mo average

compared to 223,000/month average in all of 2018

Factoid #2 - Trump's 29 months is 810,000 jobs short of Obama's last 29 months.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2337808

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 09:01 AM

3. It is what it is.

The Labor Department knows there are seasonal variations and they make adjustments to account for that. The type of jobs are the exact same type of jobs that were created in the Obama years. Some minimum wage, some decent paying. The economy has not changed.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #3)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 09:03 AM

4. Exactly

But alas - 45's faithful followers will call it a maga miracle. He and he alone could do this.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #4)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 09:32 AM

8. Trump adds jobs and the unemployment goes up...........

So right now he's setting at a 1% drop in the unemployment rate from when he took office. Someone had to get it down there for him from a high of about 10% once the Bush DISASTER hit full steam.

Oh wait...that was Obama.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #3)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 10:36 AM

14. "The economy has not changed." Then why elect Trump?

If the economy is basically the same since Obama, what was the point of electing Trump?

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Response to Yavin4 (Reply #14)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 03:52 PM

20. I don't vote for people based on the economy.

The economy is far bigger than anything a president can do. Warren Buffet, who is a Democrat, said in 2016 it did not make any difference who won as far as the economy was concerned. It was going to do fine no matter who was elected. I agree with him.

Warren Buffett: Trump? Hillary? Doesn’t matter, we’ll be fine

Warren Buffett is not worried about who becomes the next president of the United States.

“That won’t be the main problem” for Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett said at the company’s annual shareholders meeting, adding the company will “do fine” whether Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump win the November elections.

Buffett has been an outspoken supporter of Clinton, and has spoken approvingly about the campaign message of her Democratic challenger, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. In February, the Oracle dismissed the doom and gloom of the current election cycle, saying U.S. citizens have a bright future ahead.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/30/warren-buffett-trump-hillary-doesnt-matter-well-be-fine.html

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Response to former9thward (Reply #20)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 08:00 AM

22. But most people dont realize that. The president/Congress can easily do much more harm

As you say, the economy is far bigger. Many times it will succeed in SPITE of them instead of BECAUSE of them!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 09:09 AM

5. Just a reminder:

All that glitters is not gold.

The U6 nudged up again to 7.2.
Both May and June jobs were revised downward.
Manufacturing is still slowing.

This is seasonal hiring.

We’ve seen this before.

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Response to maddogesq (Reply #5)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 09:15 AM

6. The job numbers are seasonally adjusted, as is the unemployment rate and most of the others

reported in these reports.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 09:22 AM

7. In other Junes, exactly as posters expected.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-june-2016-2016-7

Jobs report crushes expectations
Akin Oyedele Jul. 8, 2016, 8:30 AM
american flag
A man with a floral American flag in the 125th Rose Parade in Pasadena, California, on January 1, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn
The US economy added 287,000 jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday, many more than expected.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/business/economy/jobs-report-hiring-unemployment-june.html

By Nelson D. Schwartz
July 2, 2015

Not too hot, not too cold. But not, alas, just right.

The economy added a healthy 223,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Thursday, but with other indicators showing wages flat and many Americans remaining on the sidelines, the overall economic picture for workers was not nearly as bright.

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Response to angstlessk (Reply #7)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 10:17 AM

11. Hostile media effect.

It's a given.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 09:54 AM

9. It's summer. We always have better jobs numbers

in summer. BFD

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Response to secondwind (Reply #9)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 10:01 AM

10. I haven't noticed that before. Could be. They are seasonally adjusted numbers

so seasonal hiring shouldn't be a factor if the seasonal adjustment is done reasonably well.

The full data series is at

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Which months in particular are better than what other months? I could dump in a spreadsheet and see what I get...

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 10:20 AM

12. Good morning. Thanks for the thread. Links to earlier reports:

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2019:

U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2019:

The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May amid bite from Trump's trade war

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2019:

ADP private-sector job growth tumbles to a 9-year low in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. unemployment fell to 3.6 percent, lowest since 1969

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 275,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2019:

Private sector hiring falls to 18-month low, and manufacturing sheds jobs, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2019:

U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2019:

U.S. creates 304,000 jobs in January, unemployment rises to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2019:

U.S. added 213,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 312,000 in December; unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2018:

U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:

U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:

Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2018:

U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #12)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 10:25 AM

13. TGIF

and I am sure D.C. metro is experiencing a mass hangover about now.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 10:50 AM

15. Here's a good analysis over at 538.

I love this site and how stats are explained.

Like me, they cite the importance of the U-6.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/jobs-report-growth-unemployment/

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 10:51 AM

16. These jobs cost Americans $416,666 per job every year to create

Trump is adding a trillion dollars to the deficit. Have you ever typed out the number of zeroes it takes to make a trillion? It's a thousand billion and looks like this $1,000,000,000,000. I typed it out the first time to do some back-of-the-napkin math:

If 2.4 million jobs are created this year (200,000/month for 12 months), and the deficit increases by $1,000,000,000,000, then each job will cost an ongoing $416,000 PER YEAR PLUS INTEREST.

This is obscene. And make me angry.

Now, someone tell me again with a straight face how we can't pay for universal healthcare and education?

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Response to Politicub (Reply #16)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 12:34 PM

17. Thank You for the eye opening statistics.

Seems to me adding more low paying jobs is no hedge against the next recession... which is inevitable.

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Response to BlueIdaho (Reply #17)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 12:47 PM

18. The pace of lay-offs in a recession will be faster than job growth is today.

Recessions always hit a moment when layoffs are overwhelming in number and swiftness.

The rich will still have their tax cut, though.

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Response to Politicub (Reply #16)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 08:04 AM

23. Thats only if you assume that trump created those jobs. No one in govt cares about the debt.

No one has had a serious effort to reduce it since Clinton was in office. Pres Obama had the Debt Commission, and Congress immediately ignored ALL their solutions.
And down the road goes the can.........

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #23)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 11:04 AM

27. Good point. I guess it would be more accurate to say, assuming if the tax cut

contributed to job growth...

The objective was to characterize deficit growth in some way tangible. While many don’t care about the deficit, a lot of people do. The numbers are staggering when you put them into some kind of context.

And I agree that Obama was responsible for the economy to come roaring back to life. Trump is just getting the benefit of what started under Obama.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Jul 5, 2019, 02:13 PM

19. BLS: Payroll employment increases by 224,000 in June; unemployment rate changes little at 3.7%

Payroll employment increases by 224,000 in June; unemployment rate changes little at 3.7%

Economic News Release USDL-19-1137

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, July 5, 2019

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * [email protected] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * [email protected] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * [email protected]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JUNE 2019


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (12.7 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (2.1 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) showed little or no change in June. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.4 million in June and accounted for 23.7 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, was little changed over the month and unchanged over the year. In June, the employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent for the fourth month in a row. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.3 million in June. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

In June, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little different from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 425,000 discouraged workers in June, little changed from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in June had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June. Employment growth has averaged 172,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. In June, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Professional and business services added 51,000 jobs in June, following little employment change in May (+24,000). Employment growth in the industry has averaged 35,000 per month in the first half of 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 47,000 in 2018.

Employment in health care increased by 35,000 over the month and by 403,000 over the past 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+19,000) and hospitals (+11,000).

Transportation and warehousing added 24,000 jobs over the month and 158,000 over the past 12 months. In June, job gains occurred among couriers and messengers (+7,000) and in air transportation (+3,000).

Construction employment continued to trend up in June (+21,000), in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.

Manufacturing employment edged up in June (+17,000), following 4 months of little change. So far this year, job growth in the industry has averaged 8,000 per month, compared with an average of 22,000 per month in 2018. In June, employment rose in computer and electronic products (+7,000) and in plastics and rubber products (+4,000).

Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.90, following a 9-cent gain in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $23.43 in June. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in June. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, while overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls held at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down from +224,000 to +216,000, and the change for May was revised down from +75,000 to +72,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 11,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 171,000 per month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for July is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 2, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).


_______________________________________________________________________

2019 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data to be released August 21, 2019

Each year, the establishment survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. On August 21, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision. This is the same day the first-quarter 2019 data from QCEW will be issued. Preliminary benchmark revisions for all major industry sectors, as well as total nonfarm and total private employment, will be available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm.

The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release in February 2020.
_______________________________________________________________________

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 08:11 AM

24. Kids are out of school in June...

And alot of people have to work two jobs. Hence, the low unemployment rate.

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Response to zanana1 (Reply #24)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 11:28 AM

28. The job numbers are seasonally adjusted, so months with extra seasonal hiring are adjusted downward

similarly in the opposite direction when there are seasonal layoffs. The unemployment rate is also seasonally adjusted.

The full data series (seasonally adjusted) is at

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth


The NOT seasonally adjusted numbers:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth


As for multiple job holders and the unemployment rate:

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jul/18/alexandria-ocasio-cortez/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-wrong-several-counts-abou/

The Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps track of how many people work two jobs rather than just one.

Over the past 12 months, the number of multiple job holders has ranged between 6 million and 7 million. That compares to more than 148 million Americans who are employed in a single job.

The percentage has moved in a pretty narrow band — 4.7 percent to 5.2 percent — during the recovery from the Great Recession. That range is actually below where it was between 1994 and the Great Recession. In fact, the percentage was at its highest (as high as 6.5 percent) during the peak of the 1990s boom.

...

When the BLS determines the unemployment rate, a person is counted as employed as long as they have at least one job. They don’t get counted twice if they have two jobs. So Ocasio-Cortez is wrong in saying multiple job holding and long hours affect the unemployment rate.


Edited to add -- The unemployment rate is not based on comparing the working age population to the number of jobs. Rather, the unemployment rate is based on a monthly survey of 60,000 households (comprising an average of about 110,000 individuals age 16 and over -- with no upper limit in age, e.g. even centenarians are included). The age-16-and-over individuals are asked a series of questions, from which their employment status is determined, e.g. employed (and whether holding multiple jobs, and whether part-time or full-time), or unemployed, or not in the labor force, etc.

Edited to add -- Added the NOT seasonally adjusted data series so that one has both the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted jobs series

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 10:27 AM

26. We are due for a downturn

I am happy to see it in 10 months or so.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Sat Jul 6, 2019, 12:44 PM

29. Trump Is Falling Almost 1 Million Jobs Short Vs. Obama (actually 810,000)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212250349

linking to https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/07/05/trump-is-falling-almost-1-million-jobs-short-vs-obama

Comparing Trump's 29 months with Obama's last 29 months

Trump entered office on January 20, 2017, and starting with February 2017 he has been President for 29 months. Total job growth during that time has been 5.613 million or 194,000 per month with those results being helped by the tax cut.

Working back from January 2017, Obama’s last month in office, there had been 6.423 million jobs added or 221,000 per month. The difference for the 29 months is 810,000 more jobs or 27,000 more per month than Trump.

Note that back in January this year the total difference was only 194,000, which means over the past five months it has increased by 616,000.


Yes, there's been quite a slowdown so far this year (the 6 months January through June), just 172,000 per month average, compared to 223,000 per month average in all of 2018.

For the 5 months February through June of 2019, it's been only 144,000 per month average.

Job numbers:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Edited to add: I checked all the numbers quoted from Forbes above with the BLS links above, as well as rechecked again my first 6 months of 2019 and last 5 months of 2019 numbers (I copy and paste into a spreadsheet). So its not just some stuff from a magazine, in case a rightie calls it "fake news" -- so if they quote BLS numbers, as Trump and Munchkin and Fox etc. always do (except perhaps in the bad months like February and May this year), then they will have to live with all the BLS numbers.

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