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Wed Jul 3, 2019, 10:08 AM

U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP

Source: Reuters

BUSINESS NEWS
JULY 3, 2019 / 8:29 AM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP

(Reuters) - U.S. companies added more jobs in June, but fewer than what analysts had forecast, raising concerns the labor market is softening even as the current U.S. economic expansion marked a record run this month, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The private sector payrolls increased by 102,000 jobs in June, falling short of the 140,000 projected by economists polled by Reuters.

Private payroll gains in the month earlier were revised up to 41,000 from an originally reported 27,000 increase. The May reading was still the weakest since March 2010.

The report is jointly developed with Moody's Analytics.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-adp/u-s-private-sector-adds-102000-jobs-in-june-adp-idUSKCN1TY1OS



https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2019/June/NER/NER-June-2019.aspx

Total Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment



[CHART] Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Historical Trend
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment



[CHART] Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Change By Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size



[CHART] Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

-- -- -- --

https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2019/June/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-June2019-Final-Press-Release.pdf

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 102,000 Jobs in June

ROSELAND, N.J. - July 3, 2019 - Private sector employment increased by 102,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

June 2019 Report Highlights*
View the ADP National Employment Report Infographic at www.adpemploymentreport.com.
Total U.S. Nonfarm Private Employment: 102,000

By Company Size

• Small businesses: -23,000
o 1-19 employees -37,000
o 20-49 employees 14,000

• Medium businesses: 60,000
o 50-499 employees 60,000

• Large businesses: 65,000
o 500-999 employees 30,000
o 1,000+ employees 36,000

By Sector

• Goods-producing: -15,000
o Natural resources/mining -4,000
o Construction -18,000
o Manufacturing 7,000

• Service-providing: 117,000
o Trade/transportation/utilities 23,000
o Information -3,000
o Financial activities 7,000
o Professional/business services 32,000
▪ Professional/technical services 16,000
▪ Management of
companies/enterprises 4,000
▪ Administrative/support services 12,000
o Education/health services 55,000
▪ Health care/social assistance 39,000
▪ Education 16,000
o Leisure/hospitality 3,000
o Other services 0
* Sum of components may not equal total, due to rounding.

• Franchise Employment**
o Franchise jobs 13,500

-- -- -- --

Make sure to look at Chart 4. Businesses with 1 through 19 employees lost 37,000 jobs last month. I can't copy it here.

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Reply U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2019 OP
bucolic_frolic Jul 2019 #1
Yavin4 Jul 2019 #2
progree Jul 2019 #3
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2019 #4
Politicub Jul 2019 #5
paleotn Jul 2019 #6

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 10:48 AM

1. Things has become Plah Toed

No growth left, but not ready to fall off a cliff yet.

Inflation is more than is being reported, and people are spending less as a result.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #1)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 10:56 AM

2. This is exactly what happens when fiscal stimulus is directed towards the rich and corporations

They sit on the money. The money does not circulate in the economy. Marginal folks adjust their spending accordingly instead of increasing it which then creates more economic activity.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 11:07 AM

3. The big BLS jobs report comes out Friday, July 5. The last one was where only 75,000

jobs were gained in May, but March and April were revised downward by a combined 75,000, so that the total count of non-farm payroll employees was unchanged from the report that came out a month prior to that.

It turned out that the ADP report of private sector employees that came out 3 or 4 days before the last BLS report (ADP report just +41,000 gain) was a harbinger of the very poor BLS report. So we'll see this Friday when the BLS report comes out.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 11:42 AM

4. Links to earlier reports

Last edited Wed Jul 3, 2019, 07:46 PM - Edit history (1)

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2019:

The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May amid bite from Trump's trade war

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2019:

ADP private-sector job growth tumbles to a 9-year low in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. unemployment fell to 3.6 percent, lowest since 1969

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 275,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2019:

Private sector hiring falls to 18-month low, and manufacturing sheds jobs, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2019:

U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2019:

U.S. creates 304,000 jobs in January, unemployment rises to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2019:

U.S. added 213,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 312,000 in December; unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2018:

U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:

U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:

Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2018:

U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 11:55 AM

5. Another leading indicator signals a recession may be on the near horizon



The Single Most Reliable Recession Indicator of the Past 50 Years Has Officially Started Blaring

If you believe the signals coming out of the bond market, it might be time to start counting down until our next recession.

As of this week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has now been inverted for a full quarter—an incredibly dull-sounding turn of events that happens to be an unusually reliable warning sign that an economic downturn is on the way. The yield curve has flipped prior to each of the last seven official recessions over the past 50 years, without a single false-alarm during that stretch. If securities could talk, in other words, they’d be screaming bloody murder about trouble ahead.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 07:46 PM

6. The expansion is starting to wear thin

as all expansions do.

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