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Fri Apr 5, 2019, 08:33 AM

UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce

Source: Washington Post



The U.S. economy added 196,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, in line with expectations and a strong rebound from the anemic 33,000 jobs added in February. Experts see little sign of an imminent recession as hiring remains robust and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8 percent.

The low level of hiring in February now seems like an anomaly, possibly been caused by employers’ hesi­ta­tion to bring on new employees in the deep of winter and an economic hangover from the lengthy government shutdown. “The labor market remains healthy, and last month is just an outlier,” said Brad McMillian, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.

The United States has had more job openings than unemployed workers since last summer, spurring companies to raise wages and offer signing bonuses and more training programs in an effort to recruit and train employees. Wages grew 3.2 percent in the past year, the Labor Department said, slightly below the February rate, which was the best in a decade and well above the 1.5 percent rate of inflation.

Lower income workers have seen the biggest pay hikes in recent months as employers report they are struggling to find enough people to fill roles and many states have enacted minimum wage increases.


Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-added-196000-jobs-in-march-as-economy-shows-signs-of-spring-bounce/2019/04/05/0b01c324-5751-11e9-814f-e2f46684196e_story.html



Original article -

By Washington Post Staff
April 5 at 8:31 AM

The U.S. economy added 196,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, a strong rebound from anemic job growth in February. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8 percent.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/04/05/u-s-added-196000-jobs-in-march-as-economy-shows-signs-of-spring-bounce/?utm_term=.b1ea0af7327c



Am hoping they revise that "breaking headline" because for GOPers had this happened under a Democrat, that would not be considered a "bounce". It would be labeled "weak".

Anyway - mahatmakanejeeves and crew should be along soon to provide more details!

ETA - Will also need to see if there were any revisions to last month's numbers as they usually will revise previous data.

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Reply UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 OP
Maxheader Apr 2019 #1
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #2
progree Apr 2019 #3
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #5
progree Apr 2019 #7
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #21
progree Apr 2019 #35
mahatmakanejeeves Apr 2019 #4
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #6
mahatmakanejeeves Apr 2019 #10
mahatmakanejeeves Apr 2019 #8
progree Apr 2019 #9
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #12
progree Apr 2019 #11
progree Apr 2019 #14
watoos Apr 2019 #13
progree Apr 2019 #15
former9thward Apr 2019 #26
progree Apr 2019 #30
mahatmakanejeeves Apr 2019 #16
progree Apr 2019 #17
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #18
progree Apr 2019 #19
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #20
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #22
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #23
oldsoftie Apr 2019 #24
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #25
Cold War Spook Apr 2019 #27
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #28
progree Apr 2019 #33
BumRushDaShow Apr 2019 #34
progree Apr 2019 #32
Takket Apr 2019 #29
moondust Apr 2019 #31
John Fante Apr 2019 #36
progree Apr 2019 #37
Bengus81 Apr 2019 #38

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 08:45 AM

1. Always like to see people working...



Makes for a solid society...people can care for themselves...Food, shelter..transportation.

I get that from my bike rides through inner city where some folks have a hard time.

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Response to Maxheader (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:02 AM

2. The "inner cities" have always had chronic never-ending issues unfortunately

Because no one wants to address the underlying problems that go beyond sloganeering.

But what you now have happening is the gentrification of the "inner city" and that is adding even more pressure on the original residents in terms of home valuations and tax structures. On one hand, it helps to finally bring some positive changes to those neighborhoods by finally addressing blight and whatnot. But it also means little incentive to build AFFORDABLE housing for lower income long-term residents because all the gentrifiers want to do is come in, gut existing stock, and then try to sell it for $500,000 or more - way out of range of the average current resident... Or the gentrifiers encourage the gut and churn "flippers" where no one EVER ends up actually living in a home in these neighborhoods because the flippers keep selling it to other flippers, with all of them expecting some kind of "profit" by doing this.

Where you may see any signs of discord and recession is in the older suburbs where the drug problem is starting to rear its ugly head and the strip malls have been shutting down due to online shopping.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #2)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:23 AM

3. At least in Minneapolis, the property taxes are based on "best use", so landlords who want to

keep their building and tenants rents affordable get screwed by high property taxes based on what the property could be earning in rents if it was upgraded. (and I'm not talking about slumlords that don't do the necessary repairs). Or what the property could be earning in rents at market-rate rental levels.

I'm a little hazy about this, but I heard a program on Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) discussing these problems, and that was one of the issues. Anyway, some landlords want to keep things affordable are squeezed out by the City.

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Response to progree (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:33 AM

5. I have an uncle who lives just outside of Minneapolis

and have been in the area a few times. Am not sure if this is the case there, but here in Philly, the property taxes have a primary chunk that is used for funding the schools - and it is pretty egregious here being in a state that refuses to offer a dedicated funding source for the public schools, where the current funding structure is horrible with the funding gaps between urban and suburban.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #5)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:46 AM

7. Yep, that's us too, I'm afraid.

the property taxes have a primary chunk that is used for funding the schools - and it is pretty egregious here being in a state that refuses to offer a dedicated funding source for the public schools, where the current funding structure is horrible with the funding gaps between urban and suburban

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Response to progree (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 12:08 PM

21. I think in Florida they passed a law fixing the tax issue; leaves the value at "last purchased",

with a cap on the amount of annual increase. Older people were being taxed out of their homes because what they had bought for 80k was now worth 700k. So now the annual increase is limited. Then, if they sell the house, the tax value increases to the last sold value. Unless they've changed it since several years back.

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #21)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 02:29 PM

35. We have something like that in Minnesota for "homesteaders" -- homeowners living in the house

but I don't know if they have anything like that for building owners renting out apartments or houses.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:29 AM

4. I love being able to sleep late on the first Friday of the month.

Good morning. Thank you for starting the thread.

BLS has subtly changed the text of the report. They've added a second paragraph to the introduction. It's explanatory, so no big deal.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

There might be other changes throughout. I'll get last month's report for comparison. I'll run the text of the entire report for March 2019 here and in a separate post, the text of the entire report for February 2019. That way, we can see if things have been rearranged.

Payroll employment increases by 196,000 in March; unemployment rate remains at 3.8%

Economic News Release USDL-19-0565

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, April 5, 2019

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * [email protected] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesi[email protected] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * [email protected]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MARCH 2019

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent in March, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.2 million. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (6.7 percent), Asians (3.1 percent), and Hispanics (4.7 percent) showed little or no change in March. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In March, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.3 million and accounted for 21.1 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate, at 63.0 percent, was little changed over the month and has shown little movement on net over the past 12 months. The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March and has been either 60.6 percent or 60.7 percent since October 2018. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 4.5 million in March. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

In March, 1.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little different from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 412,000 discouraged workers in March, about unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 944,000 persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, with notable gains in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment growth averaged 180,000 per month in the first quarter of 2019, compared with 223,000 per month in 2018. (See table B-1.)

Health care added 49,000 jobs in March and 398,000 over the past 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in ambulatory health care services (+27,000), hospitals (+14,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).

Employment in professional and technical services grew by 34,000 in March and 311,000 over the past 12 months. In March, computer systems design and related services added 12,000 jobs. Employment continued to trend up in architectural and engineering services (+6,000) and in management and technical consulting services (+6,000).

In March, employment in food services and drinking places continued its upward trend (+27,000), in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.

Employment in construction showed little change in March (+16,000) but has increased by 246,000 over the past 12 months.

Manufacturing employment changed little for the second month in a row (-6,000 in March, following +1,000 in February). In the 12 months prior to February, manufacturing had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month. Within the industry, employment in motor vehicles and parts declined in March (-6,000).

Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in March, offsetting a decline of 0.1 hour in February. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged in March at 40.7 hours, while overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $27.70, following a 10-cent gain in February. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $23.24 in March. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for April is scheduled to be released on Friday, May 3, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #4)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:34 AM

6. Good morning and TGIF once again!

The weeks (and months) seem to be flying.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #6)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:54 AM

10. But they still seem the same.

I'd link to articles in The Wall Street Journal., but everything is behind the paywall this morning.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:50 AM

8. Text of the BLS report for February 2019, released on March 8, 2019:

Your friend: Employment Situation Archived News Releases

I guess it was just that one paragraph they added.

February 2019 Economic News Release

Employment Situation News Release USDL-19-0360
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, March 8, 2019

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * [email protected] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * [email protected] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * [email protected]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2019


Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.8 percent in February, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 300,000 to 6.2 million. Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs (including people on temporary layoff) declined by 225,000. This decline reflects, in part, the return of federal workers who were furloughed in January due to the partial government shutdown. (See tables A-1 and A-11.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) decreased in February. The jobless rates for adult women (3.4 percent), teenagers (13.4 percent), Blacks (7.0 percent), and Asians (3.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In February, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.3 million and accounted for 20.4 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate held at 63.2 percent in February and has changed little over the year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.7 percent, was unchanged over the month but was up by 0.3 percentage point over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 837,000 to 4.3 million in February. This decline follows a sharp increase in January that may have resulted from the partial federal government shutdown. (Persons employed part time for economic reasons would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.) (See table A-8.)

In February, 1.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, a decrease of 178,000 from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the last 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 428,000 discouraged workers in February, little changed from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.0 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in February had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in February (+20,000), after increasing by 311,000 in January. In 2018, job growth averaged 223,000 per month. In February, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade, while construction employment declined. (See table B-1.)

In February, employment in professional and business services continued to trend up (+42,000), in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.

Health care added 21,000 jobs in February and 361,000 jobs over the year. Employment in ambulatory health care services edged up over the month (+16,000).

In February, wholesale trade employment continued its upward trend (+11,000). The industry has added 95,000 jobs over the year, largely among durable goods wholesalers.

Employment in construction declined by 31,000 in February, partially offsetting an increase of 53,000 in January. In February, employment declined in heavy and civil engineering construction (-13,000). Over the year, construction has added 223,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment changed little in February (+4,000), after increasing by an average of 22,000 per month over the prior 12 months.

In February, employment in leisure and hospitality was unchanged, after posting job gains of 89,000 and 65,000 in January and December, respectively. Over the year, leisure and hospitality has added 410,000 jobs.

Employment in other major industries, including mining, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little or no change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in February. In manufacturing, the average workweek declined 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, while overtime was unchanged at 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.2 hour to 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $27.66, following a 2-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 8 cents to $23.18 in February. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up from +222,000 to +227,000, and the change for January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 186,000 per month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for March is scheduled to be released on Friday, April 5, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:50 AM

9. January revised up 311,000 to 312,000 , February revised up: 20,000 to 33,000

for a combined total upward revision of 14,000.

ETA - Will also need to see if there were any revisions to last month's numbers as they usually will revise previous data.

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Response to progree (Reply #9)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 10:05 AM

12. Yup just saw that!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 09:59 AM

11. Aberrant statistic of the month: Household survey's Employed nose-dived 201,000 in March

but this statistic bounces around like the altitude of a Boeing 737 Max 8

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

Monthly changes in Employed from January 2017 thru March 2019 (in thousands):
2017: -148 289 541 192 -230 256 280 135 808 -552 98 120
2018: 417 731 -53 56 323 53 372 -360 465 513 221 142
2019: -251 255 -201
January and February data each year affected by changes in population controls.

Not a very good first quarter: -251,000 + 255,000 - 201,000 = -197,000 = -65,700 per month average.

Whereas the Establishment Survey's non-farm payroll numbers (the ones reported in headlines) averaged 180,000 in the first quarter

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Monthly changes in Non-farm Payroll from January 2017 thru March 2019 (in thousands):
2017: 252 141 127 213 128 229 204 187 18 260 220 174
2018: 171 330 182 196 270 262 178 282 108 277 196 227
2019: 312 33 196
The last months are preliminary

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Response to progree (Reply #11)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 10:15 AM

14. Anyway, something to tell your RW coworkers: what's REALLY happening is that we lost 201,000 jobs

last month (or 197,000 jobs last quarter). But the mainstream corporate media NEVER reports on the REAL employment numbers blah blah blah.

ON EDIT - some people seem to be taking this 100% seriously, that I'm really declaring that the U.S. lost 201,000 jobs in March and that (in another post in this thread about the Labor Force) that 224,000 dropped out "because there were no jobs to be found".

No no no. Both numbers come from the Household Survey which has a much smaller sample size and a much larger sampling error than the Establishment Survey that produces the headline nonfarm payroll jobs number. The Household Survey numbers are wildly wildly wildly volatile from month to month -- most of that zigging and zagging is statistical noise.

Please see https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2298789 in this thread or go straight to https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141934356#post21 for more on this

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 10:09 AM

13. Well ok then, 4 more years of Trump.

 

Our economy is being run like a mob family. Trump took care of the corporations and the rich with his tax giveaway, now they owe him. If his base gets hurt, like the soy bean farmers, he will simply write them a check for billions of dollars, problem solved.

I still say that this economy is an artificial one propped up by massive increases to our debt. Trump is already touting his trade deal with China as the best trade deal ever.

Trump is also starting to build his wall with Pentagon money and Democrats seem powerless to stop him.

Trump is increasingly packing the courts with his Nazi judges.

I hate to say this but Trump has a campaign slogan to run on, Promises made, promises kept.

I hate to be such a Debbie Downer, but I have been making the mistake of turning on cable news in the morning while riding my bike. All of the lead stories were about our strong economy. No more cable news for me, and msnbc was one of the worse.

As long as we ignore our record debt and growing income inequality, Trump can get away with this.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 10:33 AM

15. Aberrant statistic number 2: Labor Force dropped by 224,000 last month (280,000 last qtr)

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth
Monthly change from January 2018 thru March 2019 in Labor Force, Thousands
2018: 487 777 -254 -95 116 462 80 -407 253 639 127 419
2019 -11 -45 -224
January and February data of each year are affected by changes in population controls.

But this statistic wildly bounces up and down too from month to month

Anyway, you can tell your RW coworkers about the REAL employment numbers, the Employed (Household Survey) dropped by 201,000 last month (see post 11 ) and how 224,000 people dropped out of the labor market because there are no jobs to be found ... only jobs to be lost and none to be gained ...

Or the Employed (Household Survey) dropped by 197,000 last quarter and how 280,000 people dropped out of the labor market because there are no jobs to be found... only jobs to be lost and none to be gained ...

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Response to progree (Reply #15)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 01:18 PM

26. "there are no jobs to be found."

What nonsense. There are openings everywhere. I administer a federal workforce grant. Companies in the immediate Chicago area have 1500 openings in manufacturing jobs because there is no one to fill them.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #26)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 01:42 PM

30. Hopefully you knew I was trying to be humorous, and at the same time giving the righties a taste

of their own medicine. Every time during the Obama administration when the size of the labor force dropped or grew only a little, we would hear this crap from the right that it's because people gave up looking because there were no jobs blah blah (quite a lot of truth about that in the early post-Bush-crash years, but pure B.S. in Obama's last 2 or 3 years for most demographics, except for those above a certain age hoping to find a job with the same pay and benefits as the one they had lost. And there are some other demographics that have difficulties in any job market environment).

And during the Obama admin, we sure heard a lot when the Employment number (Household Survey) said one thing and the nonfarm payroll jobs number (Establishment Survey) said something else. I remember that especially pre-2012 election when ex-G.E. CEO Jack Welch made an enormous hoo hah about how that was proof that the leftist bureaucrats at the BLS were manipulating the numbers.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 10:42 AM

16. Links to earlier reports

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2019:

Private sector hiring falls to 18-month low, and manufacturing sheds jobs, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2019:

U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2019:

U.S. creates 304,000 jobs in January, unemployment rises to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2019:

U.S. added 213,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 312,000 in December; unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2018:

U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:

U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:

Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2018:

U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2018:

Payroll employment edges up by 103,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2018:

Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 11:00 AM

17. Job Creation of record of post-WWII Presidents, Ranked By Average Annual % Increases

Job Creation of record of post-WWII Presidents, Average Annual % Increases :

(Sorted from best to worst by average annual percentage increase in jobs. Republicans in red, Democrats in blue.)

Notice that -- with the tiny exception (0.2% difference) of Nixon to Kennedy -- the worst Democrat has a better record than the best Republican -- that is, until Obama, who inherited an economy that was losing several hundred thousand jobs a month And actually, Kennedy did not have a chance to complete his term -- had he done so, and had he had the same job creation numbers in December 1963 through January 1965 as Johnson had (a 3.48%/year annualized rate of increase), he would have easily topped Nixon.

Post-WWII Presidents ranked by Average Annual Percentage Increase In Jobs (the last column):
. . (updated 2/2/19 after new jobs report released - it has revisions going back decades.)




Update: through March 2019, the numbers for Trump are:   196,962,    145.7,     1.62%
(average number of jobs created per month, Jobs at start of term, million, average annual percentage increase in jobs)

Trump beats 4 or the 6 previous post-WWII RepubliCON presidents in average annual percentage increase in jobs (he falls between Ford and Reagan). But he beats only one Democratic president: Obama.

Remember, Obama inherited the deepest recession since World War II, which lost 4.2 million jobs in the last 10 months of his predecessor, and in the last 3 months of his predecessor was losing 753,000 jobs a month. With that momentum, job losses continued for the first 13 months of the Obama presidency -- through February 2010 -- totalling 4.3 million jobs lost during those 13 months.

Anyway, despite the 4.3 million jobs lost in his first 13 months because of the Bush crash, Obama still beats 3 of the last 7 post-WWII Republican presidents (the count of 7 post-WWII Republican presidents includes Trump).

In the above table, the average annual % increase in jobs (the last column) is a much fairer way to compare presidents than just the raw job creation figures in thousands because the latter is unfair to the earlier presidents who were working with much smaller labor forces to begin with. For example the number of job holders at the beginning of Truman's administration was only 38% as many as at the beginning of Clinton's administration, and 31% as many as at the beginning of G.W. Bush's administration. So Truman's pathetic-looking 93,570 jobs/month creation record turns out to be even better than Clinton's 238,521 jobs/month record when adjusted for the size of the labor force at the beginning of their terms.

In raw thousands of jobs created per year, both Reagan and Nixon beat Truman. But when adjusted for the size of the labor force -- again, by looking at average annual percentage increases in jobs -- Truman beats them both.

Official sources of information for the above:

# Payroll Jobs: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
# . . Hint: to see both of the above two together on the same page, go to http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001 and click on the "More Formatting Options" link in the upper right and check the "Original Data Value" and the "1-Month Net Change" checkboxes and click the "Retrieve Data" button halfway down the page on the left
# Private Sector Payroll Employment: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
# . . Hint: to see both of the above two together on the same page, go to http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
and click on the "More Formatting Options" link in the upper right and check the "Original Data Value" and the "1-Month Net Change" checkboxes and click the "Retrieve Data" button halfway down the page on the left

The United States Unemployment Rate. Every Time The Democrats Fix It, The Republicans F*CK It Up (1960-2016)


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Response to progree (Reply #17)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 11:04 AM

18. In that UE graph

"Idiot".

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #18)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 11:08 AM

19. Yup, that was a nice touch. Sadly, he's an inspired genius compared to what we have now

(I didn't make the graph but like the "Idiot" name)

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Response to progree (Reply #19)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 11:15 AM

20. It is pretty sad

I couldn't even come up with a name that is worse for the purposes of this chart for the current years but I'm sure there are plenty of candidates that could be used!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #20)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 12:15 PM

22. "orange shitgibbon" has always been my favorite; coined by another DUer.

If i could remember WHO, i'd give proper credit.

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #22)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 12:18 PM

23. I think that one

among many choice others, came from the Brits when he visited there during the election.

I remember seeing articles posted with some hilarious ones that only a Brit could concoct!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #23)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 12:56 PM

24. Now i'm saying it with a British accent. You're right, its much better!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 01:20 PM

27. When the report of jobs created in a quarter are released,

 

shouldn't the same report show jobs lost in the same time? That would seem to me to give a better perspective.

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Response to Cold War Spook (Reply #27)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 01:23 PM

28. progree posted that info in this post

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #28)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 02:05 PM

33. The nonfarm payroll numbers (headline numbers) and the household survey Employment number

comes from two separate surveys. The Household survey has a much smaller sample size and is wildly volatile from month to month. The below post discusses the two surveys and their margins of SAMPLING error (there are other errors besides the sampling error that arises from sample size).

EDITED TO ADD: The reported monthly changes from both surveys are the NET changes (jobs created less jobs lost).

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141934356#post21

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Response to progree (Reply #33)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 02:14 PM

34. Thanks for the info!

Hopefully Cold War Spook can get to where he needs to go!

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Response to Cold War Spook (Reply #27)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 01:54 PM

32. The jobs created are NET jobs created: jobs created minus jobs lost

This canned writeup is from the megathread in my signature line http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439#post2

# Myth: "Those payroll job creation numbers the corporate media reports are just that: jobs created. They don't mention all of the jobs that were lost. To get the true picture, they should report the NET jobs created: jobs created less jobs lost":

# Facts: The number headlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the media is the NET jobs created.

You can see a count of total nonfarm employment in thousands -- http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

So for example in January 2018 the table displayed at the above link shows there were 147,767 thousand (i.e. 147.767 million) nonfarm employees, and in February 2018 there were 148,097 thousand (i.e. 148.097 million). The media and the BLS reports the difference (148,097 thousand - 147,767 thousand) = 330,000 as the total jobs created in Feburary. So this is a net number.

At the same link, you can see the monthly differences by clicking on the "More Formatting Options" big blue link near the upper right of the page, and in the box in the upper left side of the page that appears, you will see the "Original Data Value" checkbox checked. Additionally, check the "1-month Net Change" checkbox. Then click the "Retrieve Data" button below it.

On the page that appears, you will see the table described in the paragraph above (the total number of nonfarm employees in thousands) followed by a table of the monthly changes in these numbers. For example, it will show the February 2018 employee count change as being 330,000 -- that is 330,000 employees higher than in February.

(Or click this link just to see the monthly changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth)

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 01:37 PM

29. So if someone walks up to me and says "see trickle down really does work!"

How do I respond?

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Response to Takket (Reply #29)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 01:50 PM

31. Baby boomers

will continue to retire for another 10 years or so creating lots of open positions to be filled as they leave the workforce.

Also, in the past Donny has accused Obama of fudging the job numbers so he may be trying some of that himself.

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Response to Takket (Reply #29)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 02:36 PM

36. Tell him that the unemployment rate is virtually unchanged

since the tax scam passed. The wage increase has been paltry as well.

The economy would be doing just as well without that giveaway to the rich.

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Response to Takket (Reply #29)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 02:44 PM

37. Tax scam giveaway to wealthy costing $2 trillion (with interest) over the next decade, placed on the

national credit card, greased the economy a bit for a year or two, but of course at the price of us taxpayers paying interest on that extra debt in perpetuity.

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Response to Takket (Reply #29)

Fri Apr 5, 2019, 06:33 PM

38. Getting a job at $7.75 per hour because some rich ass got a huge tax cut.........

Isn't trickle down anything. Tell that person that FACT. I still see plenty of Mikey D's signs out for help wanted at MW.

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