Romney, GOP Groups Pull Ads From Michigan and Pennsylvania

[highplainsdem]

Source: TPM

Republicans signaled this week that they might have given up hope in two important swing states.

The Romney campaign and conservative groups like Crossroads GPS have pulled TV ads in Michigan, Romney’s home state, according to the Detroit News.

Nor are the campaign and super PACs running advertising in Pennsylvania, after unleashing a barrage there over the past five months.

-snip-

The PollTracker Averages show President Obama ahead 48.9 percent to 45.4 percent in Michigan, and in Pennsylvania, where he leads 49.9 percent to 41.4 percent.

Read more: http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/romney-gop-michigan-pennsylvania-pull-out.php

[corkhead]

1. Great News! Should help down-ticket.

[DonViejo]

15. Just yesterday

on TPM's LiveWire they had a short blurb about an interview with John Sununu. In the interview Sununu is quoted as saying the Romney campaign will "carpet bomb" TV ads in 12 to 15 states. I wanted to post the article here but, because I'm a newbie I was unable to do so. Sununu also said the Obama campaign had "wasted $100 to $150 million attacking Romney before the convention" instead of saving it for the heat of the campaign. It's highly possible Romney will not run ads in several states but, you can be sure Rove's PAC, the Koch PAC and Buddha only knows what other PACs will be involved in the coming smear.

[karynnj]

20. Welcome to DU!

This really speaks to a campaign in disarray. It does seem odd that they are giving up in MI, but it could be that they see as people learn more of his position when Obama bailed out the auto companies, they like him less. Oddly, his "expertise" at bankrupting companies actually may hurt - not help. There are so many stories of what happened to people's jobs and pensions under the controlled bankruptcy - none of it pretty.

I do think we will see smear campaigns EVERYWHERE. My hope is that in reality there is a saturation level above which there is no additional influence and possibly a backfire. Given their own reliance on attacks their comments on the Obama ads is funny. Not to mention, if they didn't work, why was the number one goal of his convention to make people see him as likable (or even just human)?

[BlueStreak]

28. Romney's chances just went way down.

He has already bailed out on Pennsylvania. If he concedes Michigan too, it becomes very difficult. He has great Jim Crow stuff working for him in Florida and Ohio, although the Florida voter purge is likely to be stopped by the courts, and the courts have already stopped the attempt in Ohio to restrict early voting in democratic counties (while allowing it in Republican counties). If Obama wins NV and CO as is likely, that leaves basically one scenario for Romney. He has to take ALL FIVE of the beige states in the map linked below: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Wisconsin. And Virginia is very unlikely -- if he can't win Virginia, then he has to win BOTH Colorado plus either Nevada or Iowa. It is not mathematically impossible, but he cannot take any more states off the board and still win.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=wpA

[msanthrope]

2. Good. Get the fuck outta my state, Rmoney. nt

[DFW]

3. PA I can understand,but Michigan?

I find this highly suspicious.

I'd be on the lookout for a Schwarzenegger line: "They'll be back." They have the money to waste.

[aquart]

10. They do, but they've allocated almost exclusively to ad buys.

So what very expensive thing do they need to buy that they don't have?

Office space. Boots on the ground. If it were me and I was still trying to win, that's where I'd move the money and fast.

on edit: WHERE ARE MY FUCKING BRAINS? They've decided to try and save Congress.

[LoisB]

12. Totally Agree

They are going to spend gazillions of dollars to keep the House and try to turn the Senate.

[BlueStreak]

29. I'm not sure about that

That is probably true of the Rove PAC, but there are some PACs that are only focused on the Presidential race because they are basically operated by Romney's henchmen. And please note that whenever you read news reports about these Super-PACs, you see words like "pledged" and "promised" next to the billionaires supporting them. IN other words, the PACs don't actually have the gazillions in hand.

If the race is close, you can expect the Kochs and Adelsons to come through with the money, but if it isn't close, Adelson will keep the money in his own pocket. After all, the main reason he was willing to spend those millions is because Romney would clear the criminal investigations of Adelson. If Romney isn't likely to win, Adelson will keep that money available for good lawyers and for bribing other politicians who will deliver the goods for him.

The Kochs are a lot more strategic in their thinking. They are in it for the long run. They will move their money to other PACs that will help elect down-ticket people. But either way, that doesn't help Romney.

Bottom line, if they sense blood in the water, a lot of that Romney money is going to evaporate.

[tosh]

13. "They've decided to try and save Congress."

My first thought.

[silvershadow]

16. well, good luck with that, too. I think we are going to do quite well this season

barring anything nefarious, of course.

[gasser85]

38. Yep

It's always been their strategy. It's that fiendish Rove again. With the weak candidates in the primaries I believed they sold out on the White House along time ago, like since 2009. So their focus has been to gain and hold at least one branch of Congress as an obstruction. They pay lip service to Mitt but the big money is going to down stream elections.

[Berlum]

4. Watch for a Republican Occultist Curve Ball

Last edited Thu Sep 6, 2012, 01:05 PM - Edit history (1)

Republicans do not play straight. Always some occult shit going on with them.

[skeewee08]

5. Good News

up next Ohio & Florida

[PearliePoo2]

6. I don't get it. Don't the filthy Re-Thugs have almost more money than they can spend?

Or are they just going to carpet-bomb a few swing states that they think are critical for them?

[Agnosticsherbet]

9. They know they must win electoral college votes, so they will advertise...

only in those states that will best take them to their electoral college win.

[Agnosticsherbet]

7. So Romney is not winning in his home state or the state where he was governor.

It seems he is not enjoying a favorite son advantage.

Well, at least Utah still loves him.

[rocktivity]

8. It sounds like good news -- BUT

Last edited Thu Sep 6, 2012, 02:38 PM - Edit history (1)

but maybe it means they've got their vote-counting mechanisms rigged...


rocktivity

[defacto7]

31. That's what I think..

I'm the cynic.

[gasser85]

39. Oh yeah

They've got that in place. Though I think more to alter Congressional and State campaigns.

[progdog]

42. Or they are counting on the new

voter ID laws. Maybe.

[barbtries]

11. hehe

it would be lovely wouldn't it if all the gazillionaires throwing their money at this election saw the light and decided to cut their losses and save it for next time around.

of course by next time around perhaps citizen united will have been rendered moot or overturned. maybe that's why they're trying so hard to defeat democracy in the USA; maybe they think this is their last best chance to have it all and all of us as virtual slaves.

[aquart]

46. No, I want them to spend it and get nothing for it.

I'm mean that way.

[jimlup]

14. Yeah - I've gotten really sick of their ads every commerical break...

They've been excessive and the best news is even the constant barrage hasn't worked here!

YAH!

[Iliyah]

17. To the O campaign - KEEP YOUR EYES AND EARS & MONEY on it

cause I do not trust GOPper assholes and the billionaires and millionaires who want desperately BUY America.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. I wouldn't count on this...

Because the Romney camp has raised untold millions in campaign funds, they may be pulling back only temporarily and employing a rope-a-dope strategy where they release an onslaught of negative ads ads during the last few days of the campaign.

They also may be reserving some of those funds for a massive ground game assault.

Whatever the strategy is, I hope I'm wrong. I hope that they really don't see much hope in MI and PA at least.

[Kolesar]

19. "Let Detroit go..."

[font size = "5"]'BAMA![/font]

[madokie]

21. The only way that crew will ever see the white house

is on a tour or by theft. the latter worries me, keeps me awake at night worrying.

[defacto7]

32. hear ye

hear ye.

[magical thyme]

22. aquart nailed it: they will try to save congress

Bullying is the thing they do best. Failing that; obstruction.

[catbyte]

23. THANK GOD! Now maybe I can watch my local news without dvring it

If MSNBC would just stop airing those nauseating Huckabee anti-Obamacare ads, I would be a happy woman.

Diane
Anishinaabe in MI

[NRaleighLiberal]

24. PA I expected. MI is big - Mittster's paths are dwindling to little chalk marks on weeds.

Looking at the RCP map - if Obama has NV, CO and NM - as well as OH - he can lose WI, IA, VA, NC and FL and still win with 274.

And I suspect we will get WI and IA at least from that bunch.

[Ford_Prefect]

25. The long term plan includes taking State Legislatures as often as possible.

A significant part of the Rove/Koch plan has been to dismantle Federal oversight by using the State legislatures to attack it. They still expect to do so. While the focus is on the Presidential campaign for obvious reasons it was never the ONLY plan of attack.

Rust never sleeps and neither does the opposition. If there is an apparent "pause" it is only because they are refining their attack.

As Bill Clinton reminded us last night these are people who strongly believe in their vision and expect to carry out the plans they have made to accomplish it. They have many plans in place to do this. They expect to work on this by many and any means available. They also believe that they will inevitably win whether at once or by stages. There is far too much at stake in their version of the future for them to act otherwise.

[defacto7]

35. this! x 1000

[demwing]

44. If the Conservatives want to dismantle anything

they'll first need to have super majorities to override the Presidential veto. Then they'll have to navigate it through the courts.

Securing veto power, and the ability to appoint judges - the two most important reasons to vote for Obama.

[KamaAina]

26. What about Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Utah and California?

Aren't they "Romney's home state", too?

[defacto7]

36. forget Utah

Both parties would be wasting money here. This is solid GOP and all Mormon/Catholic. Ad's by the Obama campaign may snag a couple of renegade votes but I could probably count them with my fingers.

[KamaAina]

37. I'm poking fun at Rmoney's wanderlust

he has at various times claimed all of the above as his "home state".

[RandySF]

27. It looks like they really are conceding PA and MI.

Now is the time that campaigns need to book time thorugh November. If they are PULLING ads, it's a bad sign for them.

[polichick]

30. Now Americans just need to run 'em out of the country!

[Blue Yorker]

33. Looks like the latest PPP poll was the nail in the coffin

Romney is toast in his home state and he knows it.

[Mz Pip]

34. Wait until the last week

If it's close expect a huge money dump for negative ads. It ain't over til it's over.

[avebury]

40. I would expect that all Obama would have to do

in Michigan is little video/radio ads of Romney saying "Let Detroit go bankrupt"

[tclambert]

41. Bad strategy for the Romney campaign.

They have already fallen into such a deep hole when it comes to electoral votes that they pretty much have to win every toss-up state to have a chance of reaching 270. Obama just needs a few. Romney can't really afford to give up anywhere. What's he gonna do with his campaign money, run more ads in Utah, where he leads by 42%?

Okay, it is kind of pointless contesting those two states. Nate Silver's meta-analysis of the polls and computer simulations of possible election outcomes calculates a 94% chance for Obama to win Michigan and a 92% chance to win Pennsylvania. It also shows him with a 63% chance of winning Florida, 71% chance in Ohio, and 72% chance in Virginia. If Romney gives up in all of those, he might as well shut down his whole campaign. Overall, Nate Silver calculates Obama has a 76.3% chance of winning.

[underpants]

43. Leaving Michigan was the end for McCain..and I agree with you

I used RealClearPolitics for no real reason - it was the first map I found. Most are near these numbers - The Washington Post has Romney at 182 for instance..
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.htm

So if we start with Romney's 191 (which seems reasonable) here are the "toss ups"


Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
TOTAL --- 126

Romney has to win 79 of the 126
Michigan apparently is out which leaves 110

Romney has to win Florida without it he can only stand to lose 1 vote in NH (which splits the vote) and still win.

You can play with the numbers but basically he has to win everything that is a "toss up"

Nate Silver has Romney's chance of winning the "toss ups" as:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Colorado (9) 28%
Florida (29) 36%
Iowa (6) 27%
Michigan (16) -- no longer listed as a competitive state by Silver but he shows that Romney has a 5% chance of winning
Nevada (6) 17%
New Hampshire (4) 17%
North Carolina (15) 60%
Ohio (18) 27%
Virginia (13) 27%
Wisconsin (10) 18%

[demwing]

45. I've been expecting Romney to play

Blofeld to Obama's James Bond, but I have to start accepting that Romney is not the evil genius that I thought.

He is much less a Blofeld than he is a smarmy Dr. Evil.

[sofa king]

47. They're dropping anything outside of the MOE.

If you ever wanted to see a hand-tip in this race, this is it. Romney's people are focusing on keeping it close enough to steal, and giving up in places where it isn't.

That's their plan: get close enough to steal it. They've pulled that off in two of the last three elections, so don't think for a moment that they can't do it and won't try it.

[fujiyama]

48. Wisconsin and Iowa as swing states I can understand

Both are usually pretty close (except last time was a blow out). Bush won IA in '04. WI was super close in '00 and '04. PA and MI are both tough for republicans ultimately.

PA and MI are like MO, GA, or TX for us. Someone keeps saying, Dems should make a play but in reality they just aren't worth it. The money is better spent elsewhere. Romney needs to solidify NC, FL, and VA, if he wants to have even a remote chance of winning this before making plays for PA and MI. OH seems to be polling surprisingly strong for Obama as well. CO and NV would be smarter states to spend money in than PA and MI. But demographics in those two states simply don't favor Romney.

The map is far different from '00 and '04. I don't think anyone really saw NC and VA being such important swing states eight years ago.

[0rganism]

49. two ways to read this -- not necessarily mutually exclusive, either

1. Rmoney's campaign sees the states' voters as legitimately and unalterably out of reach, thus spending more there would be a waste.

2. Rmoney's campaign plans to win by relying on republicans in governorship/legislative roles to reduce access to the polls.

With republican state governments, I wouldn't take anything that happens in PA or MI for granted, or even at face value.