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Sat Aug 18, 2018, 11:58 AM

U.S. consumer sentiment hits 11-month low, inflation in focus

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to an 11-month low in early August, with households expressing concerns about the rising cost of living, potentially signaling a slowdown in consumer spending.

The University of Michigan on Friday said its consumer sentiment index fell to a reading of 95.3 early this month, the weakest since September 2017, from 97.9 in July. The survey’s current conditions sub-index of consumer expectations dropped to 107.8 from July’s reading of 114.4.

It said the decline in sentiment was concentrated among households in the bottom third of the income distribution, adding that consumers’ views on prices for big-ticket household goods were the least favorable in nearly 10 years.

Inflation has been rising in recent months, driven in part by strong domestic demand and a labor market that is viewed as being near or at full employment.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-confidence/u-s-consumer-sentiment-hits-11-month-low-inflation-in-focus-idUSKBN1L21N6

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Reply U.S. consumer sentiment hits 11-month low, inflation in focus (Original post)
TomCADem Aug 2018 OP
TomCADem Aug 2018 #1
sandensea Aug 2018 #2
TomCADem Aug 2018 #5
sandensea Aug 2018 #7
beachbum bob Aug 2018 #3
SWBTATTReg Aug 2018 #4
pazzyanne Aug 2018 #11
SWBTATTReg Aug 2018 #20
Doodley Aug 2018 #6
TomCADem Aug 2018 #8
kimbutgar Aug 2018 #9
at140 Aug 2018 #10
riversedge Aug 2018 #14
paleotn Aug 2018 #17
at140 Aug 2018 #24
marble falls Aug 2018 #12
roamer65 Aug 2018 #13
Astraea Aug 2018 #15
paleotn Aug 2018 #16
zentrum Aug 2018 #18
TomCADem Aug 2018 #22
zentrum Aug 2018 #25
Spartacus101 Aug 2018 #19
duforsure Aug 2018 #21
Shumi Aug 2018 #23

Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:01 PM

1. Real wages are down over the year -- but Republican satisfaction is spiking

This reminds me of 2007 when Fox News and the business media, including Larry Kudlow, where bending over backwards to insist that the economy was doing great.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/08/15/real-wages-are-down-over-the-year-but-republican-satisfaction-is-spiking/?utm_term=.0b59ceda2de4

Except for a little hiccup in October, average hourly earnings in the United States have increased month after month while President Trump has been in office. In January 2017, the average hourly earnings were $25.99. In July 2018, the most recent month for which data are available, it was $27.05 — an increase of more than a dollar.

But there’s a down side. While wages have gone up, inflation (as measured by the consumer price index) has gone up faster.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tallies something called real earnings, hourly and weekly earnings that take inflation into account. In January 2017, real hourly earnings were at $10.65. In July, real earnings hit $10.76. Since the tax bill was signed in December — a bill which Trump insisted would spur rapid growth in wages — inflation-adjusted hourly earnings have increased by only 0.2 percent. During Barack Obama’s second term, they increased by 3.9 percent.

The BLS generally considers year-over-year changes in real earnings. On that metric, comparing July 2017 with July 2018, real hourly earnings are down 0.2 percent according to data released Wednesday. Real weekly earnings increased slightly year-over-year — at the slowest pace since March 2017.


https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.1 percent from
June to July, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly
earnings combined with a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners
and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

After combining the change in real average hourly earnings with no change in average weekly hours,
real average weekly earnings were unchanged over the month.



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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:03 PM

2. The Trump slump

Now that it's beginning to sink in that Cheeto's top-end tax cuts and Obamacare sabotage is causing nothing but trouble, people are beginning to pull in their horns.

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Response to sandensea (Reply #2)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:08 PM

5. The genius Larry Kudlow during the 2007 financial catastrophe: 'There's no recession coming.'

Just a reminder, we have been here before with some of the same characters from the Dubya Great Recession years. Remember the Bush Boom?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/15/1749039/-The-genius-Larry-Kudlow-during-the-2007-financial-catastrophe-There-s-no-recession-coming

Presenting the economic super-genius Larry Kudlow, who took to the National Review in December, 2007, to explain that there was no recession.

There is no recession. Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S economy continues moving ahead ’”quarter after quarter, year after year’” defying dire forecasts and delivering positive growth. In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.
There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.


In December of 2007, the mortgage crisis was in full swing. The recession itself officially began that very month, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. By the time it was over it would be the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression; multiple of the nation's largest financial firms and other industry titans would require bailouts by the federal government, to say nothing of the effect on small businesses, storefronts, workers, retirees and nearly everyone else.

Not only did Larry Kudlow insist it was not happening, as it did, he wrote columns mocking those that considered the economy less than robust.

Earlier today, a doom and gloom economic forecast from Macro Economic Advisors was released predicting zero percent growth in the fourth quarter. This report is off by at least two percentage points. These guys are going to wind up with egg on their faces.

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #5)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:13 PM

7. Him - and the rest of the right-wing talking heads.

I lived in Southern California at the time; I remember suggesting to few friends and relatives (the ones that owned homes), to sell in the Summer of '05.

One of them agreed, but told me he couldn't. The others, I don't know (one of them later foreclosed).

Bubbles pop. And these right-wing adminsitrations love creating them.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:03 PM

3. Gas prices, grocery prices...growing impact of tariffs and a nonexistent taxcut

 

All starting to impact. When the market has a 30% correction...trump and GOP are dead weights..

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:03 PM

4. Everything our idiot president has been doing is simply adding to the cost of ...

everything and also, making planning very uncertain, which tends to increase cost too.

Businesses (and us too) like a stable environment to operate in, and rump is certainly not providing it. And don't give me the excuse 'oh, he's working on it' if they are any rump nuts out there reading this.

He's been a so called businessman for decades...he's not acting like it.

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Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #4)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 01:14 PM

11. I think he is acting like a business man

who has had 5 bankruptcies. What more should we expect from this low IQ45? Even though I'm living through this I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact over 6 million people thought this guy was going to save them. So sad - and terrible.

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Response to pazzyanne (Reply #11)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 11:09 PM

20. Yeah, I know...we don't expect anything and the more I learn about the voting discrepancies...

I am beginning to wonder if he really did win the 60 million votes vs. the 63 million HRC won...

Five bankruptcies should have rang bells in the republican party as to the quality of candidate they were selecting (vs. Mitt R. for example)...so, I think yeah, there is something going on w/ all of these guys (collusion, whatever) in this whole mess, as well as fraud...

Oh well, 2018 November is coming quickly, and we going to stomp their ass and then in 2020, more so...

Take care...

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:10 PM

6. A wave of.underwhelming economic news is coming before the blue wave.

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Response to Doodley (Reply #6)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:17 PM

8. Larry Kudlow: Celebrating The Bush Boo..., Er, Trump Boom!

Remember how despite close to eight years of growth under President Obama, the right media attacked President Obama's economic leadership? Conversely, conservatives have a similar track record when it comes to celebrating booms just even as signs of a recession start to appear.

For example, yesterday, Larry Kudlow was on Fox celebrating the Trump Boom:

http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/08/16/larry-kudlow-says-donald-trump-caused-single-biggest-event-economic-boom

Larry Kudlow: 'Single Biggest Event' of 2018 Is Trump's 'Economic Boom Thought to Be Impossible'

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the "single biggest event" of 2018 is "an economic boom that most people thought would be impossible."

Addressing reporters in Washington, Kudlow said President Trump's policies have led to a positive economic outlook.

In a "Fox & Friends" interview earlier Thursday, he said that the Obama White House "mantra" was that America could never surpass 2 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth.


Which sounds like a redux of his 2007 celebration of the Bush Boom:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/15/1749039/-The-genius-Larry-Kudlow-during-the-2007-financial-catastrophe-There-s-no-recession-coming

There is no recession. Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S economy continues moving ahead ’”quarter after quarter, year after year’” defying dire forecasts and delivering positive growth. In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.
There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.


In December of 2007, the mortgage crisis was in full swing. The recession itself officially began that very month, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. By the time it was over it would be the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression; multiple of the nation's largest financial firms and other industry titans would require bailouts by the federal government, to say nothing of the effect on small businesses, storefronts, workers, retirees and nearly everyone else.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:36 PM

9. I have seen it close up recently

One of my part time jobs is moving seniors from their homes to assisted living or helping older couples move to a downsized condo/apartment/townhouse. I thought I would’ve busy this summer but there were no jobs. My boss called me last week about an upcoming job. She said her business has been scarily quiet and people have been apprehensive about moving because they are concerned about the economy and don’t want to get in financial troubles because memories of the 2008 collapse was not that long ago. Where we do everything from packing, downsizing, unpacking them, now they only want us to pack and take care of unpacking themselves. My boss has been so surprised that business is so quiet. She definitely is planning the orange maggots economy and so are the clients.

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Response to kimbutgar (Reply #9)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 12:53 PM

10. Not happening in Seattle area

My daughter is in the market fora house, but crappy fixer-uppers are asking $800,000 for 1500 sq-ft houses. And most houses sell above asking price!

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Response to at140 (Reply #10)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 04:42 PM

14. My niece was home from Seattle last week. She and her partner were looking at houses after

renting for several years. She said very expensive. They looked at a 750,000 house the week before but she said it needed way tooooo much work plus a puny yard and not even a shade tree.

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Response to at140 (Reply #10)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 07:30 PM

17. Overheated housing market in many places

We've seen this pattern before in 2004, 2005, 2006. Prices rise to the point fewer and fewer can afford them without going into outrageous debt. And then, at some point, prices collapse.

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Response to paleotn (Reply #17)

Sun Aug 19, 2018, 11:56 AM

24. Exactly! I am giving housing boom 18-24 months.

The historically low mortgage rates are keeping it afloat.
All it needs is a slight hiccup in the economy and it will be
2010-2011 repeated again. Like playing Jenga!

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 01:48 PM

12. Gotta have minted a couple of million votes right there. Nothing like not being able ...

to count on that new trolling motor or washer/dryer to make him and the Mrs vote Blue.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 02:00 PM

13. Just wait...the best is yet to come.

The $1T plus deficits eventually will spook Treasury paper buyers and cause a fiscal and downright lovely currency crisis.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 06:54 PM

15. but.... i thought we were winning!

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 07:21 PM

16. Peak of the business cycle.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 08:00 PM

18. NPR reported last

...week that consumer confidence was up. No idea where they got this from---but it was given as a news fact.

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Response to zentrum (Reply #18)

Sun Aug 19, 2018, 11:05 AM

22. Do You Have a LInk? I Wonder What Index Were They Citing.

What was the question posed? If it was that the economy was "booming," then folks might just repeat the general talking point of the day. But. if it was more personal and specific, then you might get a more relevant answer.

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #22)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 08:08 AM

25. Tried to re-locate the story and can't.

My friend heard it at the same time, and we were equally stunned and disheartened by the strangeness of the report. Wish I had paid better attention to source. Next time.....

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sat Aug 18, 2018, 10:55 PM

19. Local Supermarket Prices Spiking

 

Been shopping at the same Supermarket store here in SoCal since December 2017, I rarely change my list. My usual bill has risen 23% on average since then.

I am dead serious. For a senior on a fixed income, this has been a real blow.

Needless to say, I have changed stores and my list. (knocked 10% off that 23%, but I have to drive 10 miles farther...).

Next on the menu would be shoe leather, except that they're plastic now....

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sun Aug 19, 2018, 06:05 AM

21. The American people can see whats coming

The trump slump is just around the corner, and like W did he'll claim everything is doing ok, when its not, unless you're a 1%er. You don't remove health care away from millions of people, watch energy go from $40 to $68 a barrel without rising costs, or tariffs jumping costs up, and their tax scam bill is enriching the wealthiest people in this country from robbing the middle class and poor. The stock market will see it to soon and start selling off from his recession or possible depression he's causing for putin. Trillions have been transferred to the rich , and economies don't do well as we saw under W Bushes time in office after that happens.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Sun Aug 19, 2018, 11:31 AM

23. wages are not growing

 

I feel a recession coming soon.

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