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Sun Jun 25, 2017, 08:06 AM

AP analysis shows how gerrymandering benefited GOP in 2016

Source: AP


55 mins ago


The 2016 presidential contest was awash with charges that the fix was in: ...........................

............................................. The result, according to an Associated Press analysis: Republicans had a real advantage.

The AP scrutinized the outcomes of all 435 U.S. House races and about 4,700 state House and Assembly seats ....................

The analysis found four times as many states with Republican-skewed state House or Assembly districts than Democratic ones. Among the two dozen most populated states that determine the vast majority of Congress, there were nearly three times as many with Republican-tilted U.S. House districts.

Traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Virginia were among those with significant Republican advantages ...................................

The AP analysis also found that Republicans won as many as 22 additional U.S. House seats over what would have been expected based on the average vote share in congressional districts across the country. That helped provide the GOP with a comfortable majority that stood at 241-194 over Democrats after the 2016 elections a 10 percentage point margin in seats, even though Republican candidates received just 1 percentage point more total votes nationwide.................................

Read more: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ap-analysis-shows-how-gerrymandering-benefited-gop-in-2016/ar-BBD6jue



YUP-the fix was in!!


http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBD9B2d.img?h=373&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1114&y=936

FILE - In this Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2016 file photo, Republican state Sens. Dan Soucek, left, and Brent Jackson, right, review historical maps during The Senate Redistricting Committee for the 2016 Extra Session in the Legislative Office Building at the N.C. General Assembly, in Raleigh, N.C. An Associated Press analysis, using a new statistical method of calculating partisan advantage, finds traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Virginia were among those with significant Republican advantages in their U.S. or state House races in 2016. (Corey Lowenstein/The News & Observer, File via AP)
1/7 SLIDES The Associated Press



http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBD9MUQ.img?h=775&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f

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Reply AP analysis shows how gerrymandering benefited GOP in 2016 (Original post)
riversedge Jun 2017 OP
no_hypocrisy Jun 2017 #1
underpants Jun 2017 #5
riversedge Jun 2017 #12
ewagner Jun 2017 #18
Wounded Bear Jun 2017 #10
sharedvalues Jun 2017 #2
Bernardo de La Paz Jun 2017 #3
Moostache Jun 2017 #4
kristopher Jun 2017 #15
Dustlawyer Jun 2017 #20
The Wizard Jun 2017 #31
underpants Jun 2017 #6
dalton99a Jun 2017 #7
underpants Jun 2017 #29
Sunlei Jun 2017 #8
HelenWheels Jun 2017 #9
forthemiddle Jun 2017 #22
LeftInTX Jun 2017 #24
forthemiddle Jun 2017 #25
vi5 Jun 2017 #28
Chicago1980 Jun 2017 #11
FakeNoose Jun 2017 #13
Ligyron Jun 2017 #16
Johnny2X2X Jun 2017 #14
meow2u3 Jun 2017 #17
Roland99 Jun 2017 #19
FakeNoose Jun 2017 #34
KPN Jun 2017 #21
L. Coyote Jun 2017 #23
dae Jun 2017 #26
vi5 Jun 2017 #27
andym Jun 2017 #30
The Wizard Jun 2017 #32
Ptah Jun 2017 #33

Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 08:10 AM

1. When new districts are made after the Federal Census, why aren't they drawn by BOTH

republicans and democrats, or failing that, Independents?

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Response to no_hypocrisy (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 08:37 AM

5. They are drawn by the state houses

If you have a majority in the state legislature you can pretty much decide for yourself. There are lots of pros and databases on both sides that are brought in.

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Response to underpants (Reply #5)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:03 AM

12. In, WI, the Repugs hired high priced lawyers, did it in secret and made tax

payers pay the bill.

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Response to riversedge (Reply #12)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:25 AM

18. Yes...yes they did...

I was on the County Board Committee that was in charge of redistricting the local county board districts. I can tell you with 100% certainty that because of the mix of Repubs and Dems on that allegedly non-partisan committee, there was absolutely no collusion on that level..

AFTER WE FINISHED....the State Legislature came up with their congressional/legislative MAP FROM HELL and in order to keep supervisory/aldermanic districts from cutting across two or more legislative/congressional districts we had to redraw the lines significantly.

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Response to no_hypocrisy (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 09:44 AM

10. In my state they are...

I live in WA, and we have rules about how to do it. It involves both major parties and a judge, so our districts are relatively balanced.

But like it was said above, it depends on the states.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 08:11 AM

2. Don't forget about voter suppression

Purging voter rolls, making it hard to register, long lines at polling places, any difficulty determining your polling place, all these are ways to suppress the working class vote. And the GOP uses all of these methods.



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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 08:23 AM

3. Need independent permanent districting commissions to end gerrymandering for ever.


That means winning state Legislatures and Governorships and then permanently de-politicizing it as a TOP PRIORITY.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 08:24 AM

4. The truth is this is only getting worse...

The races in key states for Governor next year will decide the fate of the Democratic Party. I am not being overly dramatic here either...

IF we fail to take back state houses in 2018, it is game, set, match GOP. The census is already in terrible shape from funding and organizing. It is going to be a Trumpian disaster if nothing is done... The lack of an accurate census and a lack of state-level ability to fight the GOP gerrymandered maps we have now will add to the catastrophic loss of the SCOTUS and the near-permanent 6-3 (or worse) split we will have by 2018.

It may seriously be time to start working on a Constitutional Congress and a complete rebuild of the government across all levels...this ship is mortally wounded and instead of 2 parties trying to salvage the ship, we have one kicking holes in the bailing buckets...

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Response to Moostache (Reply #4)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:14 AM

15. That's exactly what the Koch Brothers have been aiming for.

"a Constitutional Congress and a complete rebuild of the government across all levels"

They want to enshrine corporate control of the US economy into the Constitution.

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Response to Moostache (Reply #4)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:37 AM

20. If that were to ever happen I hope the people will finally go after the root problem

which is the legalized bribery allowed by our corrupt campaign finance system.

We need Publicly Funded Elections!

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Response to Dustlawyer (Reply #20)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 04:15 PM

31. As long as off shore money laundries thrive

politicians can take bribes in secret. The trick is to limit spending and banning political ads from PACs and other outside interests. When Republicans use the First Amendment free speech clause ask them if it's free why do they need all that money.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 08:45 AM

6. Virginia is a perfect example - 7 R's 4 D's in the house

It was a few years ago 9-2 I think.

Virginia flipped to Obama in 2008 as he won the state by almost the same % as W. Virginia has voted for the Dem nominee in 3 straight elections - Kaine being the VP nominee helped.

Dems have won the last 4 Senate races Warner (barely won in 2014) Kaine and Webb

But yet the Congressional breakdown is 7-4. McEachin was elected after courts found Bobby Scott's district was clearly used to toss Dem voting areas out of Republican districts.

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Response to underpants (Reply #6)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 09:14 AM

7. +1

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Response to dalton99a (Reply #7)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 12:09 PM

29. Forgot to mention that Dems have also won 3 of the last 4 races for Governor

McDonnell was an almost perfect candidate. The first time I saw one of his ads I knew there almost no way of beating him.

Virginia votes the year AFTER Presidential races too.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 09:36 AM

8. sure is gerrymandered, something Ds could have worked MUCH harder on over past decade. Obama said,

Obama said, the local gerrymandering is something he would work on soon as he was done as president. Along with focus on LOCAL politics. And he is

Ds and Ds running for elections all spent to much time going after anything tabloid-trump and not much time spent on REPUBLICANS dirty cheating.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 09:44 AM

9. Wisconsin gerrymandered bigly

I live in WI's 7th district which has been Democratic for decades. The reason is we had a great Congressman David Obey who won election for 40 years. He retired, Scott Walker won the governorship and the fix was in.

The 7th district has been so gerrymandered we can not get rid of our moron Cong. Sean Duffy. Our state registered many more Democratic votes but we have very few Dem. representatives elected. We had one great candidate for the 7th a few years ago and they gerrymandered the area where he lived so his entire neighborhood was removed from the 7th. They very nicely drew the border right to his house--sarcasm here.

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Response to HelenWheels (Reply #9)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:53 AM

22. In 2009 Dems were in charge in Wisconsin

They were still riding high, rightfully so, from the 2008 elections. A group of Republicans introduced a bill to have the new districts done by a board of bipartisan committee.
The Dems, feeling overconfident, never dreamed they would be out of power two short years later.
When the 2010 elections were over the Republicans were in charge of all parts of Wisconsin government for the first time in forever, and they used it to their full advantage.
I am sure there are a few Democrats that wish they could go back in time.
In other words, be careful what you wish for, because in politics, it almost always swings back to the other party!

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Response to forthemiddle (Reply #22)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 11:07 AM

24. Ouch!!

I hope this doesn't hurt the court case.

Maybe it will help it though.

(Hard to read tea leaves in these cases)

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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #24)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 11:14 AM

25. I don't think it will

It's not who drew the districts that is being litigated, just the outcome.
I was just pointing out that all of the Wisconsin nightmare could have been avoided with a little foresight.

And in the end we have to remember that the Republicans did take control before the new districts were drawn.

Wisconsin is largely rural and more conservative, the liberals dominate the two most populous areas of the state, Madison and Milwaukee, but outside that it pretty much leans right.

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Response to forthemiddle (Reply #22)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 11:26 AM

28. "Dems, feeling overconfident..."

 

Far too many stories over the past 10 years or so start out with those words.

Yay team!

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 09:46 AM

11. What benefitted republicans were...

Lazy ass democrats and liberals who didn't get the fuck out to vote during the 2010 midterms. Bitching and moaning about what Obama wasn't doing and staying home pouting in "protest".

We're our own worst enemy.

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Response to Chicago1980 (Reply #11)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:06 AM

13. Yes but that's another issue

Gerrymandering is something that will beat us every time, because it fixes the system to defeat the Democratic Party.

I call it the gift that keeps on giving.

Gerrymandering must be stopped and the districts must be redrawn immediately. The GOP has been sly and under-handed about this while we were lazy and not paying attention.

The GOP says something like "Well the Democrats did it first" and yes that's probably true. However it happened more than 50 years ago when districts were redrawn to account for population changes during the baby-boom era, black migration to cities, and so forth. The GOP has done it maliciously in the last 10 years for the express purpose of cheating and stealing the elections.

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Response to FakeNoose (Reply #13)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:15 AM

16. Yup, and the only way we'll make progress on that front is in the courts.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:11 AM

14. Gerrymandering and voting rights in general

These are the biggest issues of our time. Our Democracy has been compromised.

Dems represent the majority and they do not have power. Between voter suppression and gerrymandering Dems should have an easy 5% majority in that House. It's worse at the state level.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:19 AM

17. Pennsylvania' gerrymandered map - 13 R, 5 D

Why else would repukes dominate Congress and the state Legislature despite Democrats getting more votes in statewide races?

Most legislative and Congressional districts make it impossible for Democrats even to come close to winning, let alone win, rural districts, while 4 of 5 Democratic districts end up in 75-90% of voters electing the few Dems who do.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:27 AM

19. One Party rule is NOT democracy

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #19)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 06:11 PM

34. Especially when the one party is a minority that cheats to win




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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:42 AM

21. When the hell are we all gonna swarm down on DC en masse and scare the hell

out of 'em?

I sure wish there was enough anger about this crap that millions upon millions would place actually doing something real and tangible about it above everything else in their lives priority-wise. Count me in if something like this ever gains traction. I'll fucking drive there from Oregon! Anyone need a ride?

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 10:56 AM

23. Now expand the analysis to include Voter ID laws .....

And you will have a 20 seat Dem majority I expect.

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Response to L. Coyote (Reply #23)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 11:19 AM

26. Agree, put hard numbers on voters disenfranchised by voter ID

laws, closing polls in predominantly minority areas, etc.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 11:25 AM

27. It's too bad we didn't control any state houses....

 

...and didn't have any opportunity to do this to balance things out in blue states.

But hey, wouldn't want to be uncivil or lower ourselves to their level.

At least we have our dignity and integrity.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 03:17 PM

30. 22 seat differential would have put the House at 216 Democrat to 219 GOP

from 194 Democrat/241 GOP. They would still control the House, but by the barest of threads. The power of gerrymandering-- too bad that gerrymandering is self supporting-- because the state districts are also gerrymandered, meaning the GOP tends to stay in power in the legislatures that draw up the districts.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 04:18 PM

32. How about scrapping

the current system and replace it with a Parliamentary system wherein the legislature is determined by the percentage of votes each party gets.

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Response to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Jun 25, 2017, 04:33 PM

33. Redistricting in Arizona

<snip>
Historically, Arizona's legislature has had control over the redistricting
process. However, Proposition 106, passed in 2000, delegated the power
to draw congressional and legislative boundaries to a bipartisan
independent commission. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission
(AIRC) comprises two Democrats, two Republicans, and one independent chair.
County and local redistricting, which normally takes place along the same
timeline as congressional and legislative redistricting, is carried out by the
individual county and local governments rather than the AIRC.

<snip>

The AIRC was created when voters approved Proposition 106 in 2000,
56.1 percent to 43.9 percent. Proposition 106 amended the Arizona
Constitution to create a bipartisan commission independent of the state
legislature that would be tasked with redrawing congressional and legislative
lines following the decennial census. The commission's mandate is to draw
districts considering six factors and explicitly omitting from consideration a
seventh factor. The six criteria the commission attempts to satisfy,
in descending order of importance, are:

that they are in compliance with the U.S. Constitution and the Voting Rights Act,
that districts are roughly equal in population,
that they appear compact and contiguous,
that they respect communities of interest,
that they incorporate visible geographic features; city, town, and county boundaries;
and undivided census tracts;
and that they are electorally competitive as long as the aforementioned criteria are satisfied


<snip>

The Arizona Legislature was so confident that it would prevail in the U.S.
Supreme Court that it even hired a firm to redraw the congressional
district maps without waiting for the Court to make its decision.
On June 29, 2015, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the legislature's
argument in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting
Commission.[29] The Court held the term "legislature" in the Elections Clause
could be read broadly to mean "the power that makes laws," not just the
two representative houses. Because Arizona Constitution granted voters exactly
"the power that makes laws," the voters were not prohibited from
adopting laws governing redistricting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting_in_Arizona

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