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Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:20 PM

Poll shows Clinton winning Colorado

Source: 9News - NBC affiliate

In contrast with a poll Wednesday that showed Colorado as a tie in the Presidential race, a new poll Thursday finds that Democrat Hillary Clinton is winning the state with a six-point lead over Republican Donald Trump.

The survey comes from Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling shop, and shows Clinton leading 44-38. Voters were also given the names of the Libertarian and Green party candidates.

The survey sample size is similar to the University of Denver poll released Wednesday, which showed a 39-39 tie between Trump and Clinton in a 4-way race.

However, the sample in the Magellan poll had some differences in demographics. The DU poll, conducted by Floyd Ciruli (a 9NEWS political analyst,) captured a larger share of conservatives and had 9 percent of respondents identifying as Hispanic. The Magellan poll had 15 percent of its sample identify as Hispanic.

The Magellan figure is closer to the 14.5 percent of the state’s voting-eligible population that is Hispanic, according to research from the Pew Center.

Read more: http://www.9news.com/news/local/politics/poll-shows-clinton-winning-colorado/347260539



Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls from the NEWS results that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News. Check this yourself to see what polls were listed.
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Magellan Strategies polling is rate C by 538 with a R+0.6 bias

"However, the sample in the Magellan poll had some differences in demographics." --- once again its all about the Likely Voter Model any poll chooses to use. Different projected voter models gave different results.

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Reply Poll shows Clinton winning Colorado (Original post)
uawchild Nov 2016 OP
0rganism Nov 2016 #2
blue-wave Nov 2016 #3
book_worm Nov 2016 #4

Response to uawchild (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:30 PM

2. turnout models are the big kielbasa for predictive accuracy

and this year's election is throwing them off. this is not going to be like 2008 or 2012, especially for minority votes.

the Hispanic vote is usually more divided D vs. R, but this year His Trumpiness has decided the Republicans don't need Hispanic voters to put him over the top. it's going to make a big difference in a lot of states, turning leaners into tossups and tossups into blowouts, and the pollsters are going to be flopping around for weeks trying to explain how their predictions didn't account for this.

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:38 PM

3. Yup

It's that surging Latino vote they have not been accurately counting. I'm sure they are still under counting it. I believe this will be the year of the Latino vote. Now factor in the republican women and men who find Trump revolting and you will start to see an even better picture.

Take that taco and stick where the sun don't....oh why bother, why waste a good taco.

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:41 PM

4. Give HRC Kerry's states from 2004 and add VA, NM, CO, NC and NV

and she wins a solid victory even without Ohio or Florida (and I think she will win Florida and maybe still even Ohio).

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