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Winning control of the Senate, where Republicans hold a slim 4-seat majority, has long been considered a much easier feat for Democrats as there are a number of GOP incumbents in blue states up for reelection. But securing the House majority was always seen as a longshot. As recently as last month, House Democratic leaders speculated that they might win 20 seats, still 10 short of their 30-seat goal.
With the videotape and Trump’s decision to highlight Bill Clinton’s peccadillos, Democrats think they now have the upper hand with independents, moderates and women in heavily populated suburban districts.
Democrats have their eyes on the 26 Republican House districts that Obama won in 2012 and an additional 23 where he came close to winning. That means taking on Republican incumbents like Reps. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., Mike Coffman in eastern Denver, Erik Paulsen outside of Minneapolis and Crescent Hardy outside of Las Vegas. All of those Republicans have rejected Trump, many of them in the last couple of days.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/10/10/house-democrats-believe-trump-troubles-give-them-real-shot-at-retaking-majority/
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I know that we have 2 seats here in SE PA - the currently extremely-gerrymandered 7th Congressional and the 8th Congressional that are R now where both had been (barely) D in 2008 and were lost in 2010. Redistricting after the 2010 census ahead of the 2012 election reddened them up even more but the potential is still there with the demographic shifts in those areas since 2010.
Another WaPo analysis article waffles back and forth about the Senate -
Trump’s problems don’t automatically mean Democrats will win the Senate
By Stuart Rothenberg October 11 at 6:15 AM
The “Trump tape” and its fallout have changed the national political landscape, creating new problems for Republican strategists charged with retaining control of the Senate. But while recent events have put GOP candidates on the defensive, the two parties remain locked in a tight fight for Senate control.
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Before the Trump tape issue emerged, there was no indication that a national partisan wave had developed. That’s important, because in a partisan wave Senate seats often fall in one direction. However, the lack of a wave in no way guarantees the two parties will “split” toss-up races, and Trump’s candidacy is so damaged that experienced Republican observers are extremely nervous.
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Unlike the presidential contest, which has had a clear trajectory since after the national party conventions, the fight for the Senate has always been murkier. A little more than a month ago I wrote that Republican Senate prospects had improved compared to six months earlier, primarily because Republican incumbents in Ohio and Florida were in fundamentally better shape than expected. But, I also concluded, “Right now, the most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of four or five seats.”
The strangest presidential campaign in American political history could well get stranger before Nov. 8. But right now, Democratic Senate gains in the four to five0seat range still look most likely – which would give Democrats control of the Senate. Significantly larger Democratic gains certainly are possible, of course, especially if GOP-held Senate seats in Florida and Ohio once again become at risk.
The above analysis had noted some sudden issues in the Bayh campaign in IN and the weaknesses of the PA & NH races, along with the problem in NV with Harry Reid's seat. All of this is going to require some major turnout operations.
In any case, as of around 10 am today, 538 has Hillary up to 88.1% vs 11.8% for Trump & Democrats @ 54.8% as the chance to take the Senate. Here in PA, since we are one of the few states that has straight-ticket voting, that will probably be the only way McGinty gets it and state Dems have to drive that home because GOP-affiliated super PACs have been relentless attacking McGinty.
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