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Sun May 20, 2012, 12:52 PM

Vanderbilt poll: Obama closes gap with Romney Tennesseans don't like focus of legislature

Source: The Tennessean

President Barack Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in traditionally conservative Tennessee, according to a new Vanderbilt University pol..

The poll also found that Tennesseans weren’t thrilled with the Republican-led General Assembly’s frequent focus on social, cultural and religious issues this year. But Republican Gov. Bill Haslam managed to remain above the fray, winning approval from 61 percent of poll participants.

“Tennessee is clearly a red state,” said John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt. “But these data show that the public is much more moderate than our state legislature.”

The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The survey, conducted May 2-9 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Vanderbilt, had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120520/NEWS/305170107/Vanderbilt-poll-Obama-closes-gap-Romney

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Reply Vanderbilt poll: Obama closes gap with Romney Tennesseans don't like focus of legislature (Original post)
kpete May 2012 OP
bluestateguy May 2012 #1
PatrynXX May 2012 #3
bluestateguy May 2012 #4
Renew Deal May 2012 #44
Swede Atlanta May 2012 #9
broiles May 2012 #10
Major Nikon May 2012 #16
groundloop May 2012 #26
bluestateguy May 2012 #12
secondvariety May 2012 #18
PoliticAverse May 2012 #19
freshwest May 2012 #21
AzDar May 2012 #23
Post removed May 2012 #25
southerncrone May 2012 #31
lonestarnot May 2012 #43
dipsydoodle May 2012 #46
grantcart May 2012 #14
SharonAnn May 2012 #28
southerncrone May 2012 #32
Lars39 May 2012 #34
Major Nikon May 2012 #17
jwirr May 2012 #2
Dawson Leery May 2012 #5
Drunken Irishman May 2012 #6
liberalnationalist May 2012 #24
Igel May 2012 #7
happerbolic May 2012 #13
onehandle May 2012 #8
Iliyah May 2012 #11
TlalocW May 2012 #15
iemitsu May 2012 #30
Lars39 May 2012 #33
iemitsu May 2012 #35
Lars39 May 2012 #36
iemitsu May 2012 #37
Lars39 May 2012 #38
iemitsu May 2012 #39
Lars39 May 2012 #40
iemitsu May 2012 #41
Lars39 May 2012 #42
cstanleytech May 2012 #45
BumRushDaShow May 2012 #20
freshwest May 2012 #22
nineteen50 May 2012 #27
Tarheel_Dem May 2012 #29
Auntie Bush May 2012 #47

Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 12:55 PM

1. He ain't winning Tennessee

If he can keep Ramney to under a plus +10 win in that state I would call that a symbolic victory and a basis for trying to win it in 2016.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #1)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:07 PM

3. unless the folks in that state

who are typically rather Christian figure out they might be voting for a moron and know that the Muslim BS is just that. they might go to obama.

Not that it should matter but since it does that could happen...

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Response to PatrynXX (Reply #3)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:12 PM

4. I'm thinking that Ramney will win Tennessee by a less overwhelming margin that Bush in '04 or McCain

Not because of any great love for Obama, but lighter evangelical turnout for a Mormon candidate, as well as complacency that Tennessee is a given win for Ramney.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #4)

Wed May 23, 2012, 11:32 PM

44. Romney has underperformed in the south all year

So maybe this will play out in the GE. I still don't think Obama wins TN.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #1)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:58 PM

9. OK....let's start with some basics .....

 

Let's use correct grammar...

"ain't" does not exist in the English language. The correct usage is "he isn't winning..."

The prospective opponent is not Ramney but rather Romney...

Just pointing out ways to improve the efficacy of your posts.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:16 PM

10. Get a life.

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Response to broiles (Reply #10)

Sun May 20, 2012, 03:50 PM

16. +1

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Response to broiles (Reply #10)

Mon May 21, 2012, 07:44 AM

26. +2

Hey, I just realized my spell checker accepts "ain't". So there ya' go

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:23 PM

12. I will continue to pronounce his name Ramney

and use the word ain't.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Sun May 20, 2012, 04:17 PM

18. Rather Romney?

I thought it was Mitt Romney.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Sun May 20, 2012, 04:17 PM

19. "The use of ain’t was widespread in the 18th century and is still perfectly normal..,.

in many dialects and informal contexts in both North America and Britain."

http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/ain%27t?region=us&q=ain%27t

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Sun May 20, 2012, 05:59 PM

21. Do you agree with the OP or just toss these gems of wisdom out and leave? Come back and talk!



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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Sun May 20, 2012, 06:28 PM

23. Since we're being so instructive, I would like to point out that a proper ellipsis...

 

contains three (3) dots.

Just pointing out ways to improve the efficacy of your posts.

You're welcome.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)


Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Tue May 22, 2012, 12:22 AM

31. Uhhh. I believe they intentionally used those terms for emphasis.

Plus, if you're talking about The South, "ain't" is ALWAYS acceptable. Heck, it's our favorite word!
If you have anything to do w/Atlanta, then you should KNOW this! LOL

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Wed May 23, 2012, 11:23 PM

43. How bout we just call him fuckramney? Ain't to your lik'n either I guess.

 

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #9)

Thu May 24, 2012, 07:01 PM

46. Ain't is vernacular English

A simple contraction of is not for example.

Of course being English you already know that.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #1)

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:52 PM

14. the real value of the poll is that it shows


1) efforts by radical Republican legislatures are depressing the lean right vote and energizing the left

and

2) Romney is putting his base asleep. Romney's negatives in this poll in Tennessee are higer than Obama's.

While Tennessee almost certainly will got to Romney

a) Romney may have to spend money and time to defend the reddest of states
b) He has to compete against not only Obama but the negative effects of a far right wing state legislature
c) If these trends hold up in other states with radical Republican legislatures then Romney is in a world of whole lot of hurt.

Now before we write of Tennessee off completely there is one other dynamic that has to be noted. The more Romney campaigns and the more people see and know about him the less likely they are to vote for him. Romney currently has a 7 point lead among registered voters in Tennessee, he needs to keep that margin and get them to care enough to actually go and vote.

While it is fairly certain that on election day a majority of Tennesseans will prefer Romney to Obama it is not certain that a majority of those willing to go and vote will.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #14)

Mon May 21, 2012, 01:02 PM

28. Remember Romney's Mormon faith. Our "born-agains" don't really care for that.

So there could be a lot of apathetic R's who are born-again, fundamentalist, Christians.
Especially since the Pentecostals might stay home.

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Response to SharonAnn (Reply #28)

Tue May 22, 2012, 12:31 AM

32. I agree SharonAnn.

There was a Mormon massacre near me here in TN in the 1800's. Not much has changed here since then in many ways......especially in the Religious Tolerance Dept.

The BIGGY will be the JOBS situation. If the economy & job opportunities ramp up between now & Nov. then Obama may actually have a shot.

Unfortunately the gas price will also play into TN vote. I suspect R's will use it as their Ace in the Hole. (no pun intended)

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Response to SharonAnn (Reply #28)

Tue May 22, 2012, 12:35 AM

34. They may not care for it, but some of their goals nicely dovetail.

I'm thinking of how the Southern Baptists and Catholics get along when it comes to abortion and sometimes contraception. It will be interesting to see the results.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #1)

Sun May 20, 2012, 03:53 PM

17. Regardless it still means R-money has to campaign and spend money the state

I suspect there will be other previously red states where this is the case thanks to the teavangelicals. R-money is losing the electoral college race, which is really the only one that matters.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:00 PM

2. That radical legislature that does not really represent the ideals of the people is what happens

when powerful groups like corporations/churches get behind THEIR candidate. In the end it is only the corporations/churches that have representation. The people no longer matter.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:17 PM

5. Romney is winning the state.

He may not win by much, but he will win it.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:38 PM

6. It doesn't matter if Obama wins Tennessee or not...

If it's in play, Romney is in trouble. This just shows his weakness in the south and there are a few southern states that Obama CAN win - namely Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia (well, technically Florida too, but sometimes I forget they're a southern state).

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #6)

Sun May 20, 2012, 10:17 PM

24. your are correct in many ways

 


For instance, I agree with you and then show you Texas. Texas with a massive 38 electoral votes is up for grabs and the Republicans know it. Why, the people see throught the rightwing for the first time. I live in NC and Obama is going to win it. Why, becasue according to Karl Rove, he has them in a dead heat in South Carolina.

If Georgia is in play that is 16 electoral votes.

Montana is in play.


Raw Money is screwed.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:39 PM

7. Meh. It's happening again.

We cite all the polls showing the increase in our guy's polling results as golden.

We dismiss all the polls showing a decrease in our guy's polling results as flawed and wrong.

By election day in 2008 I fully expected Obama's polling results, after all the 2-5% jumps in the polls, to be at least 395% of voter registration--and that's in the deepest red precincts. In swing states I expected him to take upwards of 700% of voter registration numbers. That was his due, and anything less could only be due to voter and electoral fraud. There was no way in 2010 that the Democrats could have not taken every election, from dog catcher to Senator, with a minimum of 250% of voter turnout (and, in some, I expected a minimum of 1000% of voter turnout--unless there was fraud, of course).

The good news it that's probably my last poll post until the spate of posts saying that the early exit polls based on partial, preliminary numbers in a handful of precincts and on a outrageously incorrect and inadequate voter-turnout model are cited as God's very own truth.

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Response to Igel (Reply #7)

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:43 PM

13. not as used to seeing the 1000%...

 

...mark much, but hey, works out pretty well when keeping those pesky half-points fouling up the conversation

Did i hear right, here at DU, that these polling figures are based usually by results from call-outs to 'hard-wired' telephones? Has anybody ever received one on a cell phone yet?

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 01:40 PM

8. Fun, but useless. The only state he has a chance of winning below the Mason-Dixon is Florida.

And even there, he needs to overcome the intense and deep voting corruption that defines that insanely fucked up state.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:19 PM

11. Many "Christians" will hold their nose and vote

for Mittens because they have the ministers and super pacs telling them that he is the lesser of two evils.

Pres O is a Christian, but these people have painted him otherwise as not. He is the Christian who believes the way most Christians believe but atlas, these people are influenced by lies, isn't that peachy.

The New Times has a article about how Mitten's belief in the Moromism is deep, ok, so what? Pres O's Christian belief is deep as well. But the corporate media distorts that.

If the so called Christians open their eyes they will see it, but I won't hold my breath.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 03:48 PM

15. In all honesty we have the Religious Right to thank for the closeness of this poll

For years, they've told their followers (rightly) that Mormonism is a cult. They're not like us; they don't believe in Jesus the way we believe in Jesus. Boogy boogy boogy. Now the religious right bigwigs on down to the preachers of the smallest churches are trying to do a 180, but they're fighting against years of their own indoctrination, and oftentimes their support of Romney is rather tepid to begin with. In the meantime, they've also convinced their followers (wrongly) that President Obama is a Muslim. He went to a Madrassa! His dad was Muslim! He learned respect for other religions! Boogy boogy boogy.

So in their eyes, this year is coming down to a vote between two non-Christian men. America is lost. It doesn't matter which one wins because surely, the anti-Christ will reveal itself shortly after the elections, and they'll all up raptured up. Time to gather at the Creationist Museum and pray or just watch Nascar but ain't no use in voting.

TlalocW

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Response to TlalocW (Reply #15)

Mon May 21, 2012, 09:42 PM

30. there's that word "ain't" again.

Last edited Wed May 23, 2012, 12:14 AM - Edit history (1)

i was going to agree with all you said but then - that word - stopped me in my tracks.
i couldn't think straight any longer.


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Response to iemitsu (Reply #30)

Tue May 22, 2012, 12:31 AM

33. I'm sure your lack of capitalization strikes some people the same way.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #33)

Tue May 22, 2012, 12:37 AM

35. i suppose it does.

i should have used the sarcasm emote as i was really picking on the grammar guerrillas up-thread.

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Response to iemitsu (Reply #35)

Tue May 22, 2012, 12:41 AM

36. ahh...not too late to add it. :-)

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #36)

Tue May 22, 2012, 11:12 PM

37. probably too late now.

besides i don't know where that sarcasm thingy comes from.

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Response to iemitsu (Reply #37)

Tue May 22, 2012, 11:34 PM

38. I think one of the new features here is the ability to edit for a long time.

The tag is in the "smilies" button which is under the "reply title" field.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #38)

Wed May 23, 2012, 12:09 AM

39. thanks again.

for the good information on the increased time for editing and where to find mr sarcasm.
also for your good nature.

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Response to iemitsu (Reply #39)

Wed May 23, 2012, 12:13 AM

40. Glad to help if I can, iemitsu.

Oh, and welcome to DU !!!

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #40)

Wed May 23, 2012, 12:19 AM

41. :) thanks for the welcome.

i've really been reading DU since the year 2000 but don't often open my mouth.
one might say i'm slow.
i added a jester to the offending post because i couldn't find the sarcasm emote.
maybe i'll figure it out some day?


by slow, i really meant "low post".

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Response to iemitsu (Reply #41)

Wed May 23, 2012, 01:02 AM

42. eh, don't worry about not posting a lot...the rest of us are just gabby.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #42)

Thu May 24, 2012, 05:42 PM

45. That and alot of us have no life

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 05:33 PM

20. Tennesee dubbed itself as the "Belt buckle of the Bible Belt"

This should be interesting to see... I.e., the repukes there may not vote for the top of the ticket at all.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 06:01 PM

22. May all the states with Teabagger goons in their legislatures see the light!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon May 21, 2012, 12:48 PM

27. just another sign that we only have one political party in America

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon May 21, 2012, 01:42 PM

29. K&R

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu May 24, 2012, 10:36 PM

47. I salivate at the thoughts of TN going blue...but it'll be a miracle if it happened.

If it is close in TN...maybe some other red states might go blue.

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