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Trajan

(19,089 posts)
Tue Aug 11, 2015, 11:55 PM Aug 2015

Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37

Source: Boston Herald

Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has rocketed past longtime front-runner Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, a stunning turn in a race once considered a lock for the former secretary of state, a new Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll shows.

Sanders leads Clinton 44-37 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, the first time the heavily favored Clinton has trailed in the 2016 primary campaign, according to the poll of 442 Granite-Staters.

Vice President Joe Biden got 9 percent support in the test primary match-up. The other announced Democrats in the race, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Gov. Jim Webb, barely register at 1 percent or below.

The live interview phone poll was conducted Aug. 7-10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.





Read more: http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/us_politics/2015/08/bernie_sanders_surges_ahead_of_hillary_clinton_in_nh_44_37



I had to place one particularly loud and obnoxious partisan on ignore today for a thread based on a defeatist prognosis by Nate S. ...

This makes everything particularly sweet for the moment ... Enjoy !
158 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37 (Original Post) Trajan Aug 2015 OP
Yay! HappyPlace Aug 2015 #1
+1 glinda Aug 2015 #2
I'm getting in on it... Eleanors38 Aug 2015 #118
Hi Trajan! Great news! oregonjen Aug 2015 #3
Hey Jen ... Trajan Aug 2015 #11
Yep, I went with family and it was amazing! oregonjen Aug 2015 #43
As another poster said, PatrickforO Aug 2015 #4
I hope they do more than that, like donate and volunteer. merrily Aug 2015 #104
Nice! Bubzer Aug 2015 #5
Awesome! peacebird Aug 2015 #6
This message was self-deleted by its author Ed Suspicious Aug 2015 #7
TO THE GREATEST! Ed Suspicious Aug 2015 #8
\/\/ O O T L0oniX Aug 2015 #9
Sweet! dgibby Aug 2015 #10
Clintons And Bushes Should Unite Against Him billhicks76 Aug 2015 #12
Its not like that hasn't happened before Mnpaul Aug 2015 #21
It's not about them. It's about how much we are willing to do for Bernie. merrily Aug 2015 #105
Yep, the BFFs watch out for each other. Arugula Latte Aug 2015 #113
I'm sure glad that "Bernie's Surge Is Over" ! John Poet Aug 2015 #13
No Citizen Need Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious Aug 2015 #14
Go Bernie Go! SoapBox Aug 2015 #15
After that, the next poll will see him beating HRC in IOWA! Elmer S. E. Dump Aug 2015 #115
But its a whitebread state in his neighborhood Indepatriot Aug 2015 #16
Yup. It's like repubs like Joe Scarborough saying Occupy Wall Street is just a brief CTyankee Aug 2015 #67
Bernie also talks about wealth inequality. That is very important. AFAIK, he's the only one talking merrily Aug 2015 #106
That's not a surge, that's a HURRICANE!!! Zorra Aug 2015 #17
:evilgrin: WillyT Aug 2015 #18
INDEED! nt Plucketeer Aug 2015 #75
If Bernie gets the nomination, will other Dem politicians move to the left? candelista Aug 2015 #19
If Bernie gets the nomination you will start to see real Democrats wilsonbooks Aug 2015 #33
cool restorefreedom Aug 2015 #85
To borrow a phrase from the late Spiro Agnew swilton Aug 2015 #20
They don't realize what they are up against ... Trajan Aug 2015 #23
I think the Old Guard is underestimating social media. Arugula Latte Aug 2015 #112
Rather, they are misunderstand it. Hoppy Aug 2015 #123
They understand it Baadger Aug 2015 #130
Hope so! Arugula Latte Aug 2015 #137
Thanks! Baadger Aug 2015 #158
I think he has a "can't see the forest for the trees" issue. RichVRichV Aug 2015 #141
LOL - you sound like an impudent snob from some effete corps :) nt KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #147
The beginning of a fitting end to the Clinton campaign.. magicmama Aug 2015 #22
Do not bet on her ending her campaign. merrily Aug 2015 #103
The serious red-baiting will commence shortly, methinks. - nt KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #148
You mean referring to Sanders as "the socialist"? Already begun by merrily Aug 2015 #151
One state in the Bernie column, 49 to go... fbc Aug 2015 #24
48 - He's gonna win Vermont. (nt) jeff47 Aug 2015 #29
! George II Aug 2015 #32
That's the thing PSPS Aug 2015 #50
I don't think this is the last we'll see of news like this ibegurpard Aug 2015 #25
Expect to hear polls don't matter. Spitfire of ATJ Aug 2015 #26
Sounds like it's only a 'defeatist prognosis' when it's not the math you like. onehandle Aug 2015 #27
Now all you need is to completely change our election laws jeff47 Aug 2015 #30
We're looking at how Sanders is trending with people who are exposed to the campaign's message Babel_17 Aug 2015 #80
Very insightful. Thanks for posting. nt snagglepuss Aug 2015 #100
Why now juajen Aug 2015 #128
No it's not. RichVRichV Aug 2015 #135
"Can he do the job, and does he really want this job" quakerboy Aug 2015 #140
Well, 2012 was out of the question :) Babel_17 Aug 2015 #142
I don't think Sanders ever wanted to run. merrily Aug 2015 #152
And disregard the Vegas book odds, too. LanternWaste Aug 2015 #119
"More accurate than polling" means they do better than 95% wrong. jeff47 Aug 2015 #127
Don't give them any ideas. Nt PassingFair Aug 2015 #144
Just a matter of time. JDPriestly Aug 2015 #34
When does that national primary happen again? frylock Aug 2015 #78
March 1st, 2016. nt onehandle Aug 2015 #79
Thanks. I'd better mark that on my calendar. frylock Aug 2015 #81
38 states disappeared? jeff47 Aug 2015 #84
Just remember that upward trending candidates that win early primaries have absolutely no effect RichVRichV Aug 2015 #132
who hoo!! nt restorefreedom Aug 2015 #28
But while Sanders has surged ahead in New Hampshire... George II Aug 2015 #31
Thats what the hillery supporters said about wilsonbooks Aug 2015 #35
That's a creative use of the post hoc ergo prompter hoc fallacy. LanternWaste Aug 2015 #120
Grammar\Usage Nazi here: 'Post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy' (and KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #149
People say that because Hillary's lead seemed insurmountable bobbobbins01 Aug 2015 #37
The theory of electability is only valid as long as it is adhered to. n/t Betty Karlson Aug 2015 #49
Brilliant! demwing Aug 2015 #61
Using with permission is not stealing. Betty Karlson Aug 2015 #91
Nobody that I know of thought Clinton's lead in New Hampshire, in fact many have... George II Aug 2015 #98
That's not about electability, it's about inevitability. Qutzupalotl Aug 2015 #39
Bernie does not face an electability problem among his staunch supporters. Enthusiast Aug 2015 #90
Wanna make a bet? Admiral Loinpresser Aug 2015 #93
WOW! K&R !! secondwind Aug 2015 #36
Excellent Progress boatsnhose Aug 2015 #38
Right on! Power to the people! Jack Rabbit Aug 2015 #40
Feel the Bern brothers and sisters, feel the Bern. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #41
Well vadermike Aug 2015 #42
Nothing On CNN, MSN, Huff, Koz Nada Zilch Yallow Aug 2015 #44
The media blackout seems to be working for him. Le Taz Hot Aug 2015 #48
The revolution will not be televised! walkthewalkorstfu Aug 2015 #54
Indeed tabasco Aug 2015 #72
Actually CNN/Ashley Banfield (sp?) had a blurb on it Chipper Chat Aug 2015 #77
it was on msbc today questionseverything Aug 2015 #107
One word!! CountAllVotes Aug 2015 #45
K & R AzDar Aug 2015 #46
Awesome news! BeanMusical Aug 2015 #47
"Clinton is still widely considered to be the likely nominee" 65% vs Sanders 11% riversedge Aug 2015 #51
So Bernie wins the "who would you vote for" question Fearless Aug 2015 #53
You should reformat your post for readability! nt tblue37 Aug 2015 #145
Sing along with me... Fearless Aug 2015 #52
gotta love the classics restorefreedom Aug 2015 #86
Clinton Followers Are Fake billhicks76 Aug 2015 #55
538 admits they got it wrong ... twitter Ichingcarpenter Aug 2015 #56
That's not quite what he said. Adrahil Aug 2015 #58
. LiberalElite Aug 2015 #64
I know, right? Adrahil Aug 2015 #66
Not that much difference, the last poll I saw had Hillary ahead by 6 or 8 points, but A Simple Game Aug 2015 #97
I haven't heard a fucking cricket in 6 weeks.... catnhatnh Aug 2015 #71
Nice bon mot! Much appreciated. - nt KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #150
It's not in marked disagreement. It follows trends. RichVRichV Aug 2015 #138
I don't necessarially disagree... Adrahil Aug 2015 #139
It's a Republican Poll videohead5 Aug 2015 #57
that Hillary has sunk from a 30 point lead to a statistical tie is a stunning change. nt magical thyme Aug 2015 #74
Feel the Bern Deadbeat Republicans Aug 2015 #59
Feels good. MoonchildCA Aug 2015 #83
KICK! LiberalElite Aug 2015 #60
Great news! wolfie001 Aug 2015 #62
This is such great news. And, this is BEFORE the debates!! WooHoo!! stillwaiting Aug 2015 #63
Saw this last night, MuseRider Aug 2015 #65
Let's remember Robbins Aug 2015 #68
Expect Florida and Michigan to jump the primary schedule if this is the case. nt PassingFair Aug 2015 #69
I wouldn't count Hillary out in NH just yet she was down bigdarryl Aug 2015 #70
That was close to the primary. She was leading in 2007. jeff47 Aug 2015 #87
"a race once considered a lock" Babel_17 Aug 2015 #73
But, but, but....Hillary supporters and the MSM are constantly reminding us, NorthCarolina Aug 2015 #76
Two points: George II Aug 2015 #82
My First Interaction on DU since Gore V Bush Days NowSam Aug 2015 #88
Great to have you back! n/t Admiral Loinpresser Aug 2015 #92
Welcome back. Did you know DU's first day was 1/20/01, the day shrub was sworn in as pres? uppityperson Aug 2015 #96
Thanks! NowSam Aug 2015 #116
I am curious and notice you missed answering. uppityperson Aug 2015 #157
Kicked and recommended a whole bunch! Enthusiast Aug 2015 #89
Now the fight begins in earnest. Admiral Loinpresser Aug 2015 #94
The real Socialists and Communists with whom I communicate may have helped innoculate KingCharlemagne Aug 2015 #153
Real question. lark Aug 2015 #95
Sanders is only leading in NH in one poll so far. NT Eric J in MN Aug 2015 #101
It's exciting ShrimpPoboy Aug 2015 #99
"he does face what appears to be an electability problem, even among his staunch supporters" Amimnoch Aug 2015 #102
This message was self-deleted by its author chknltl Aug 2015 #131
the loud mouths from Bernie Sanders??? PatrynXX Aug 2015 #108
A sample size of 442 respondents is very low Yavin4 Aug 2015 #109
Ready for a Bernie scream ambush??? Helen Borg Aug 2015 #110
Watch them fall... LiberalLovinLug Aug 2015 #111
You mean watch Bernie's poll numbers fall in the next poll of NH done by a different polling firm. Metric System Aug 2015 #114
I think Bernie supporters are smart enough Trajan Aug 2015 #121
Holy shit!!! Might it happen?!?!?!?!? nt adigal Aug 2015 #117
WOW humbled_opinion Aug 2015 #122
YES! Bernie for President 2016 Dont call me Shirley Aug 2015 #124
Go Bernie go!!!!!! Initech Aug 2015 #125
bogus Kammer Aug 2015 #126
'cause if there's one thing the right wing likes it's an actual social democrat with broad appeal MisterP Aug 2015 #134
Let's say the Boston Herald poll is wrong, and the NBC poll is right. Eric J in MN Aug 2015 #146
This poll is only as good as the pollster Gothmog Aug 2015 #129
It's unfortunate that you think it is your mission Trajan Aug 2015 #154
I like living in the real world where electablity and viability are issues Gothmog Aug 2015 #155
you big old meanie.... BooScout Aug 2015 #156
I am glad that this is shaping up to be an actual contest... rury Aug 2015 #133
Winning. K&R nt TBF Aug 2015 #136
And his crowds just keep getting bigger & bigger.......nt 7962 Aug 2015 #143
 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
11. Hey Jen ...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:25 AM
Aug 2015

It's been a long while ... I hope all is well with you and yours ...

I hope you made it to the rally last Sunday .... That was amazing ...

I haven't seen anybody restart the DU Meet Ups we used to have here ... The political season has arrived, so maybe it's time to get together ...

Nice to see you ! ...

oregonjen

(3,335 posts)
43. Yep, I went with family and it was amazing!
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:46 AM
Aug 2015

Loved every minute of it.
Nice to see you, too. Hope all is well.

PatrickforO

(14,570 posts)
4. As another poster said,
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:07 AM
Aug 2015

Bernie is very smart and well informed. And he doesn't back down in a fight.

All people have to do is listen to the guy to be FOR him, because he is obviously FOR us!

Response to Trajan (Original post)

 

billhicks76

(5,082 posts)
12. Clintons And Bushes Should Unite Against Him
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:25 AM
Aug 2015

Lol. They already have. And it pisses off loyal Clintonites to no end to point out the deep seated connections, alliances and backscratching between the two families. You know Bernie wouldn't stand in the way of prosecuting crimes of the Bush administration. And you know Hillary would do everything to stop it. But Clintonites can keep putting their blinders on and excuse anything that's an inconvenient truth.

Mnpaul

(3,655 posts)
21. Its not like that hasn't happened before
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:51 AM
Aug 2015

Democrats and Republicans teamed up against him in Vermont

merrily

(45,251 posts)
105. It's not about them. It's about how much we are willing to do for Bernie.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 02:28 PM
Aug 2015

And not only on a message board.

 

Indepatriot

(1,253 posts)
16. But its a whitebread state in his neighborhood
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:35 AM
Aug 2015

And he can't win the general because socialism and POC and $$$ and its Hillary's turn and Nate Silver and socialism and Third Way and MSM and Debbie Wassermann Shultz and Katy Perry and socialism and Old White Guy...

CTyankee

(63,903 posts)
67. Yup. It's like repubs like Joe Scarborough saying Occupy Wall Street is just a brief
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:40 AM
Aug 2015

"thing" from a few disgruntled losers when they talked about income inequality...

and now two years we're all talking about...income inequality

merrily

(45,251 posts)
106. Bernie also talks about wealth inequality. That is very important. AFAIK, he's the only one talking
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 02:30 PM
Aug 2015

about that.

 

candelista

(1,986 posts)
19. If Bernie gets the nomination, will other Dem politicians move to the left?
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:49 AM
Aug 2015

Will they start talking about the billionaire class, etc.? Will the Party move to the left?

 

swilton

(5,069 posts)
20. To borrow a phrase from the late Spiro Agnew
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:51 AM
Aug 2015

Nate Silver is a nattering nabob of negativism in things regarding Bernie Sanders....

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
23. They don't realize what they are up against ...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:01 AM
Aug 2015

Bernie, apparently, is a new force of nature ... This 'phenomena' could break all the rules, and whiz right past the pundits ...

Who knows ... If he keeps gaining ... well ... Let's watch ... If this is a sea change in the electoral mood ... The enthusiasm could sweep the whole of congress if such a wave were to occur ... Like a freekin political tornado ...

It is an extraordinary ride so far ....

 

Arugula Latte

(50,566 posts)
112. I think the Old Guard is underestimating social media.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 03:22 PM
Aug 2015

Big Media has lost control of the narrative to some extent. Unexpected things can happen.

We shall see ... Vamos a ver.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
141. I think he has a "can't see the forest for the trees" issue.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:54 PM
Aug 2015

He's too focused on data points to just watch what's happening around him. Some people refuse all anecdotal evidence for only hard data. I think Nate is one of those people. The problem is when you have an avalanche of anecdotal evidence all pointing one way that tends to be a precursor to the hard data to come.


I just don't think what's happening falls within their predefined polling models and expectations and they've got no way to account for it. And don't even get me started on the 'not likely to vote'. I have a feeling that's going to end up playing havoc on their models come election time.

 

magicmama

(50 posts)
22. The beginning of a fitting end to the Clinton campaign..
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 12:55 AM
Aug 2015

The equilibrium has reached on one state, one nearly there in another, and many more are starting to tighten up on state by state polls.

So, Nate, can I have of some of that stuff you're currently smoking?

merrily

(45,251 posts)
151. You mean referring to Sanders as "the socialist"? Already begun by
Thu Aug 13, 2015, 10:26 AM
Aug 2015

Guitierrez, under the guise of not being able to remember the name of the man who chaired the Progressive Caucus for several years while Guitierrez was a member, then became a fellow member with Guitierrez and remains so to this day.

Coincidentally, word is that Guitierrez wants to succeed President Clinton's and President Obama's former chief of Staff, Rahm, as Mayor of Chicago.

 

fbc

(1,668 posts)
24. One state in the Bernie column, 49 to go...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:03 AM
Aug 2015

There's plenty of time, and its actually quite easy: we just need to for people to hear him speak because people who hear him speak become Bernie supporters.

PSPS

(13,590 posts)
50. That's the thing
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 02:43 AM
Aug 2015

When people hear Bernie's message, they become Bernie supporters. That's the new phenomenon -- the guy is honest and can state his platform succinctly. And it's a platform that is easy to understand and requires no "reading between the lines." His message is one that can easily appeal to both democrats and republicans.

Virtually every politician hones their skills giving speeches that sound good but contain no substance. Bernie's speeches aren't like that.

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
27. Sounds like it's only a 'defeatist prognosis' when it's not the math you like.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:12 AM
Aug 2015

Hillary is 40-50 points ahead nationally.

How's that for math?

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
30. Now all you need is to completely change our election laws
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:17 AM
Aug 2015

to a single national election. Before February 1st. Then national polling will be a useful predictor.

Babel_17

(5,400 posts)
80. We're looking at how Sanders is trending with people who are exposed to the campaign's message
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 10:53 AM
Aug 2015

In defense of the pollsters I'll say that their models aren't designed to account for the specific type of phenomenon that the Sanders campaign represents. Their models are based mostly around the depressing predictability of how voters react in the Skinner box environment of large, extremely well funded, elections.

It would be dishonest for pollsters to use a new methodology. Though I'll be interested to see if Nate Silver is open about this if asked. I understand his livelihood is based on the uncannily good models he uses, but he is a scientist and should be honest about the limitations of prediction.

There are some importantly unusual features to the Sanders campaign. The degree of how important they are, and the number of them, is what is going to show the limits to the utility of the models Silver uses.

Ask Silver if his models could have predicted the surge of Ross Perot in 92. And Perot was seriously lacking in several attributes that Sanders has in spades. Sanders has the record for championing people that the Perot campaign merely gave a nod to. Sanders has decades of experience with the legislative process. Sanders has decades of support for important civil rights causes under his belt. Sanders has decades of campaigning and politicking in unpleasant circumstances and environments behind him.

Though the main point of superiority is that Sanders is running on the most evolved version of the Democratic Party platform I've yet to see. Because Sanders has chosen not to take big donations from monied interests, he and his campaign could craft a platform that would have the utmost appeal to members of the Democratic party (and the nation as a whole).

Silver should consider the Perot phenomenon, look at how the Sanders campaign is greatly superior to it, and conclude he needs to come up with something more specific to this campaign. He might make just such an announcement if Sanders does a notch better than even the already revised upwards forecasts for the earliest contests and/or later very significant polling.

P.S. Only now did I really think about how Perot was up against a Clinton and a Bush. The huge difference her obviously is that Senator Sanders is competing in the Democratic primary, and not against Bush and Clinton at the same time. He doesn't get the spoiler vote though he does appeal to those who aren't happy with our system.

juajen

(8,515 posts)
128. Why now
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 06:08 PM
Aug 2015

It seems to me, that with all of these talents, experience and charm, not to mention popularity, that he would have surfaced much earlier.

Perhaps someone could find out why this is the case. Personally, I don't think that he wants it. He would be the best one to answer that question. I believe some well meaning people are driving him where he does not want to go.

We all love this man, but that does'nt mean a damn thing. Can he do the job, and does he really want this job. Everyone should be trying to find an answer before a good man is pushed where he doesnt't want to go. Does he have family. I've never seen them, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have them. I don't keep my face glued to the TV all the time. I also think there is a glaring lack of family around Trump, but I can't even begin to imagine what Trump would do to our wonderful Bernie. Reconsideration is certainly needed here.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
135. No it's not.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:02 PM
Aug 2015

He said before he ever declared he would only enter the race if he felt he had a legitimate shot at winning. He has said many times in no uncertain terms that he's in it to win it. There is no waffling by Bernie, there is no second guessing. He's running a campaign with intent to win every bit as much as Hillary is.

And don't worry about what Trump will do to him. Bernie will bury Trump if it comes to that. Trump is an egomaniac with no real ideas to solve issues. Bernie has a solid, well grounded, well proven platform and isn't scared to defend it. Trump is winning on the Republican side because no one over there has a real platform, they just fling crap at each other, and Trump is the loudest at doing that.

quakerboy

(13,919 posts)
140. "Can he do the job, and does he really want this job"
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:46 PM
Aug 2015

Yes, he can do the job.

I doubt he really wants the job, but thats rather irrelevant if he is willing and able to do it and the people chose him for the position.

My interpretation is that he wants the job done, and noone else stepped up to do it. So he is doing what needs to be done. I think there is even a fair argument to be made that people who genuinely want this job are inherently ill suited to having it.

Trump would have his lunch eaten by Bernie. Trump is dominating the R end because he is a blowhard vs a bunch of liars. Bernie has the benefit of conviction and fact on his side.

Although I rather expect it will be someone besides Trump facing off. Maybe with trump as a 3rd player, making this even more of a cake walk for the Democratic Nominee.

Babel_17

(5,400 posts)
142. Well, 2012 was out of the question :)
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 09:14 PM
Aug 2015

In 2008 we had a very crowded field of extraordinarily capable people who were running very expensive campaigns. It took a fortune to get noticed. Sanders could have run and got some notice, imo, but he'd have been buried behind the popularity of Clinton, Obama, Biden, and Edwards. Plus the other popular candidates.

There was 2004 but Bush was the incumbent, war time, President and our party tried to get united very quickly behind our candidate John Kerry. Sanders could have run and had enormous credibility on the left due to his opposition to the Iraq War Resolution. We can argue about that all day but Sanders running against Kerry for the nomination would have had most Democrats running for their smelling salts. That was a time when it was suggested we were traitors for questioning Bush's methods of protecting the Homeland.

2000 was Gore's year. Sanders could have made a principled run but it would have went nowhere and he does have to balance what would be gained vs. time lost he could have spent representing the people who elected him. Plus he was very much an unknown.

There's an unwritten rule in politics that also applies to the news media. Don't use your family as props and then they'll be considered as off limits to pestering. That's assuming they live law abiding lives and don't publicly embarrass themselves.

Wikipedia will tell you about Sanders immediate family and they've been mentioned here as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders

"His father was a Jewish immigrant from Poland whose family was killed in the Holocaust,[21][23][13] while his mother was born to Jewish parents in New York City."

"Sanders married his "college sweetheart" Deborah Shiling in Baltimore in 1964. They had no children and divorced in 1966. His son, Levi Sanders, was born in 1969 to Susan Campbell Mott. In 1988 Sanders married Jane (O'Meara) Driscoll, a former president of Burlington College, in Burlington, Vermont.[93] With her he has three stepchildren, which he considers as his own.[27][94] Sanders's brother, Larry Sanders, was a Green Party County Councillor representing the East Oxford division on Oxfordshire County Council, in England, until his retirement in 2013.[95][96][97] Larry Sanders ran as a Green Party candidate for Oxford West and Abingdon in the 2015 British general election and came in fifth."


Politicians with the ability to be POTUS are few and far between. For those few there are other considerations. There's the window of opportunity I mentioned. Look at President Obama for another example. Many people thought he needed to step up very quickly to run as the 2008 elections were the perfect window of opportunity. There was tons of discussion about that here at that time.

There are age considerations, and resume considerations. It takes a rare candidate to run when just past 40. Nixon and Kennedy were considered marvels as they were both so young and yet so full of experience.

This is Sanders last chance to make a bid to be POTUS. Same for Clinton probably as well. I explained some of my thinking on why he couldn't run earlier. That leaves why is he running, and does he even really want this.

Sanders is running, imo, partly because he sees the Progressive message as constantly getting short changed. The fundamentals of our nation's capital, where money is speech, have dictated that. Sanders is fairly unique in that he has a lot of good will among Progressives, and he also has the ability to run an unabashed Progressive platform due to his record and his lack of ties to big money. He also has the fairly unique ability to draw crowds and capture the public's imagine, all while running his campaign on the donations from the 99%.

Perhaps the defining moment when it initially came together, when the seed was planted that inspired Sanders to run, and many to support him, was this.

"On December 10, 2010, Sanders delivered an 8½-hour speech against the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, the proposed extension of the Bush-era tax rates that eventually became law, saying "Enough is enough! ... How many homes can you own?"[70] (A long speech such as this is commonly known as a filibuster, but because it didn't block action, it was not technically a filibuster under Senate rules.[18]) In response to the speech, hundreds of people signed online petitions urging Sanders to run in the 2012 presidential election and pollsters began measuring his support in key primary states.[71] Progressive activists such as Rabbi Michael Lerner and economist David Korten publicly voiced their support for a prospective Sanders run against President Barack Obama."[71]

Sanders's "filibuster" was published in February 2011 by Nation Books as The Speech: A Historic Filibuster on Corporate Greed and the Decline of Our Middle Class, with authorial proceeds going to Vermont nonprofit charitable organizations.


Look at that great Senator at the end of his eight and a half hour speech. That's who we want as President!





 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
119. And disregard the Vegas book odds, too.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 04:37 PM
Aug 2015

And disregard the Vegas book odds too, which have been more accurate than polling over the past twenty-five years.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
127. "More accurate than polling" means they do better than 95% wrong.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 05:51 PM
Aug 2015

Polling far from the election is wrong up to 95% of the time. It gets better the closer you get to the actual election.

"We got it right 6% of the time!!" is not a ringing endorsement.

But feel free to pick up some easy money by placing a bet.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
132. Just remember that upward trending candidates that win early primaries have absolutely no effect
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 07:52 PM
Aug 2015

on later primaries.

George II

(67,782 posts)
31. But while Sanders has surged ahead in New Hampshire...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:18 AM
Aug 2015

....he does face what appears to be an electability problem, even among his staunch supporters.

Just 11 percent of likely Democratic voters picked him over Clinton to win the nomination, while 65 percent said she would emerge as the party’s general election candidate.

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
120. That's a creative use of the post hoc ergo prompter hoc fallacy.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 04:38 PM
Aug 2015

That's a creative use of the post hoc ergo prompter hoc fallacy. Nice job!

bobbobbins01

(1,681 posts)
37. People say that because Hillary's lead seemed insurmountable
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:27 AM
Aug 2015

Now that he's shown she isn't untouchable, that electability problem is going to vanish. This is a turning point.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
91. Using with permission is not stealing.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 11:48 AM
Aug 2015

How about we call it fair use, author's permission or something else that sounds equally nice?

George II

(67,782 posts)
98. Nobody that I know of thought Clinton's lead in New Hampshire, in fact many have...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:26 PM
Aug 2015

....almost conceded New Hampshire, the neighboring state to Vermont with almost identical demographics, to Sanders.

But keep in mind, being a point or two ahead or even more doesn't mean a majority of available delegates, and my guess is that the "winner" in New Hampshire will wind up with two or three delegates more than the "loser" (only 21 delegates up for grabs), and it will take 2,242 delegates for the nomination.

A victory in New Hampshire is almost cosmetic.

I'll also go out on a limb here and predict that Sanders will win Vermont as well.

That's probably the extent of Sanders' "surge" however.

Qutzupalotl

(14,302 posts)
39. That's not about electability, it's about inevitability.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:40 AM
Aug 2015

Read the question again.

I support Sanders, even though I know it's far more likely that Clinton will get the nomination. So I'm still voting for him. See how that works?

And if he wins, he will be our next president, and an excellent one. Just what we need, in fact.

Enthusiast

(50,983 posts)
90. Bernie does not face an electability problem among his staunch supporters.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 11:39 AM
Aug 2015

Staunch supporters are staunch supporters and as such they will vote nearly 100% for Bernie except for the misguided few that change their minds and are no longer Staunch Supporters.

They will either vote for Bernie or they cannot be considered staunch supporters. Get it?

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
42. Well
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:45 AM
Aug 2015

Well it a race now. ! Whoever comes out on too I will vote for. ! But I have a feeling we don't have a strong enough bench to beat the rethugs unfortunately .. I hope I'm wrong but it ain't looking good ugh

 

Yallow

(1,926 posts)
44. Nothing On CNN, MSN, Huff, Koz Nada Zilch
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:48 AM
Aug 2015

They can't bury this.....

For long.

But they will try.....

Chipper Chat

(9,677 posts)
77. Actually CNN/Ashley Banfield (sp?) had a blurb on it
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 10:40 AM
Aug 2015

She was interviewing a lady from the Nurses' Union. But Ashley said something like "but he cant win-he's a socialist" and "aren't you ladies happy with Hillary - after all she's a woman." Talkingheadisms.

riversedge

(70,186 posts)
51. "Clinton is still widely considered to be the likely nominee" 65% vs Sanders 11%
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 03:09 AM
Aug 2015

Interesting.




http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2015/08/12/FPU-BH-0811-Dem.pdf


C
andidate
Most Likely to Win
the
P
resident
ial N
omination of the Democratic
Party
15
4
<1
4
3
2
1
65
6
0
100
Unsure
Other
Webb
Warren
Sanders
O'Malley
Cuomo
Clinton
Chafee
Biden
Percent
17
0
0
11
0
65
0
7
0
100
Unsure
Other
Webb
Warren
Sanders
O'Malley
Cuomo
Clinton
Chafee
Biden
Percent
March 2015
August 2015
N/A
N/A
N/A
Despite no longer leading in terms of vote choice
, Hillary Clinton
is
still
widely considered to be
the likely no
minee. Almost
two
-
thirds of likely
Democratic
primary voters
believe
that
Hillary
Clinton
(65%) will win the presidential nomination
of the
Democratic Party
, followed by
Bernie
Sanders
(11%) and
Joe Biden
(7%)

.
Only 17
percent of voters are
unsure
who will be the
eventual nominee of the Party

Fearless

(18,421 posts)
53. So Bernie wins the "who would you vote for" question
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 03:53 AM
Aug 2015

While Hillary wins the "who do you think others will vote for" question.

Seems sort of like the Congressional analogy... Congress has a 10% approval rating but everyone loves their OWN Congressperson.

 

billhicks76

(5,082 posts)
55. Clinton Followers Are Fake
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 05:15 AM
Aug 2015

She bought $630K worth of Facebook friends with Tax money when Sec Of State and her campaign a few months ago created 2 million fake Twitter followers. Wow. Thats what some people want...a fake???

http://www.adweek.com/prnewser/hillary-clinton-allegedly-has-more-than-2-million-fake-twitter-followers/112810

Go Bernie...YOU ARE FOR REAL!!!!!!!!!

Ichingcarpenter

(36,988 posts)
56. 538 admits they got it wrong ... twitter
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 06:01 AM
Aug 2015

FiveThirtyEight's in damage control mode

He's a 538 pollster. Earlier today they claimed Bernie's surge is over.




Harry Enten
Bottom line: I've been wrong before. (You do this long enough you'll be wrong plenty.) But I'll wait for another poll or 3 before reversing.



https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/631319400533127169

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
58. That's not quite what he said.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 06:51 AM
Aug 2015

He said he's been wrong before, he might be wrong again... But that it's a terrible idea to do your analysis based on one poll, like the Bernistas here are doing.

It is hilarious to me that when a poll (or five) positive for HRC comes out, this place is all crickets, except for those Sanders supporters decrying that polls are all corporate lies.

One poll by a virtually unknown pollster in marked diagreement with other recent polls and suddenly the Sanders supporters are believers in polling.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
66. I know, right?
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:39 AM
Aug 2015

Those silly Bernistas!

For Serrius.... this could be big news for Bernie. But this would be a 10 point swing from even the most optimistic recent poll, which would be pretty unusual. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
97. Not that much difference, the last poll I saw had Hillary ahead by 6 or 8 points, but
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:16 PM
Aug 2015

included Warren who had 14 points. This poll didn't have Warren who's support would mostly go to Bernie. This poll did include Biden with 9 points and I would think most of that would go to Hillary.

Figuring the Warren voters I don't see much difference and with the Biden voters subtracted think Hillary would still have a small lead.

catnhatnh

(8,976 posts)
71. I haven't heard a fucking cricket in 6 weeks....
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 09:45 AM
Aug 2015

...too many Clintonistas have drown them out by whistling past the graveyard.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
138. It's not in marked disagreement. It follows trends.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:26 PM
Aug 2015

The last poll I saw for NH had Bernie behind but within the margin of error. This one has Bernie ahead but within the margin of error. It's a fast big jump, more than I expected, but it's not against trends. We'll just have to wait for more data points.


It was conceded a month ago that Hillary has a strong possibility of losing NH. So it's not like this is a shock to anyone.


And I've always believed in polling (especially the effect it can have on people). I also recognize their limitations, especially this far out.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
139. I don't necessarially disagree...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:30 PM
Aug 2015

The trend in NH was still looking pretty strong to me, so as I said earlier... this is POSSIBLE, but it is a BIG jump. State polls are subject to more noise as well, so we'll have to see as other polls come out.

videohead5

(2,172 posts)
57. It's a Republican Poll
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 06:35 AM
Aug 2015

Wait for other polls to confirm this.the poll has a big margin of error at 4.7.

MuseRider

(34,105 posts)
65. Saw this last night,
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 07:52 AM
Aug 2015

rec'ed it last night and lo and behold it is still here! It was not a dream!

All those trying to rain on this lovely bit of info can just FEEL THE BERN. They really do need to consider that they may have to feel it quite often as he thunders across the country.

Morning kick for Senator Sanders!

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
68. Let's remember
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:51 AM
Aug 2015

Obama never lead hillary In NH till after he won In iowa before clinton supporters say it doesn't mean anything she came back to win NH in 2008.

her 2008 NH win was combination of NH political machine behind her and belief in debate and her tearing up that people were ganging up and being mean to her.

Bernie being ahead In NH In august is a earthquake in this campagin.

 

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)
70. I wouldn't count Hillary out in NH just yet she was down
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 09:33 AM
Aug 2015

In 2008 by 15 points according to the polls before the NH primary was over.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
87. That was close to the primary. She was leading in 2007.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 11:25 AM
Aug 2015

The main reason to "count her out" is that her campaign is already downplaying a NH loss. You don't do that this early unless the internal polling is really bad.

Babel_17

(5,400 posts)
73. "a race once considered a lock"
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 10:09 AM
Aug 2015

That's intrinsic to the discussion about the Democratic primaries. This goes to why we're waiting for debates. The Clinton campaign is sensibly waiting for some kind of stabilization. They don't want to deal with the undercurrent of the Sanders campaign surging in popularity, Sanders gaining support, Clinton losing support.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see DWS at the DNC to reverse herself and move up the debates. On the face of it alone the current schedule looks lit a bit of a setup, and it doesn't demonstrate confidence in HRC. And while Secretary Clinton plays a cautious game of limited exposure to the crowds of her supporters, and low-key fundraisers, Senator Sanders is taking advantage of having uncontested mobility to move around all over the country to have his message heard. All of his campaigning against the status quo is going mostly unmatched by HRC's campaign and that's just going to cause an unfortunate association for HRC in the minds of primary voters.

Senator Sanders is coming across as the face for change, and it's a force for change that Democratic primary voters want.

 

NorthCarolina

(11,197 posts)
76. But, but, but....Hillary supporters and the MSM are constantly reminding us,
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 10:37 AM
Aug 2015

with apparent authority, that Bernie will not be the Democratic nominee; no if's, and's or but's about it...just not gonna happen....period. So, how in the WORLD can this be happening? Do the folks in NH not listen to news punditry, or talk with pro-Hillary people who apparently know the REAL score beyond all reasonable doubt? Perplexing at best.


Oh, and ... Go Bernie! K&R

Actually this OP is great news. Bernie is on the move and I for one am loving the contortions of the third-way camp and their media counterparts in their quest to convince us there is no avenue to the WH for Bernie. It gives me pleasure to see their sophomoric attempts to discredit and belittle his campaign as much to do about nothing.....have they been successful in helping you to lose your Bernie enthusiasm yet?

George II

(67,782 posts)
82. Two points:
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 11:11 AM
Aug 2015

The Boston Herald is owned by a former News Corp. executive

This polling organization has been rated at C-

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
88. My First Interaction on DU since Gore V Bush Days
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 11:28 AM
Aug 2015

Last edited Wed Aug 12, 2015, 03:42 PM - Edit history (1)

Hi DU. I am delighted to use this Good News Thread of Bernie topping the poll to rejoin DU. I was minimally active (Under a different user name which I prefer not to mention since I use it for other things and I prefer to maintain some anonymity here.) back in the early 2000s. I left after Bush came into power. I was fed up with the system. The fact is I have been reading and following DU all these years as a news source to counter Drudge. I always considered this forum to be the best source of real news. We certainly can't get the straight scoop from the bought and paid for msm.

I am sure there are many who follow without interacting and of course that is fine in my opinion. I felt compelled to rejoin the conversation after all this time because Bernie Sanders is shining such a bright light of truth into the heart of America. I am so relieved to hear him courageously expose injustice after injustice and offer the remedy that when we stand together and care for each other as a nation there is nothing we cannot do.

So please forgive me for standing in the shadows here. Thank you all for the smart conversations. I hope I can be an active member of DU now and add to the discussion.

So glad about this Boston poll!

uppityperson

(115,677 posts)
96. Welcome back. Did you know DU's first day was 1/20/01, the day shrub was sworn in as pres?
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:12 PM
Aug 2015

Who were you here back in 2000? Welcome back.

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
116. Thanks!
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 03:41 PM
Aug 2015

No I didn't know that. I will edit my post than because I thought it was 2000. I guess it was 01 and 02. Thanks for the welcome back.

Admiral Loinpresser

(3,859 posts)
94. Now the fight begins in earnest.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:11 PM
Aug 2015

The Establishment chattering class, people like Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd and George Stephanopolos will go dirty. As the threat of a truth telling candidate becomes more and more real, they will try to do to Bernie what they did in the War on Gore and SwiftBoating Kerry.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
153. The real Socialists and Communists with whom I communicate may have helped innoculate
Thu Aug 13, 2015, 10:32 AM
Aug 2015

Sanders against the worst of the red-baiting slurs sure to come his way from the Clinton campaign, as my comrades insist that Sanders is a 'socialist' in name only. They are right, insofar as the term has been used historically. I expect the Clinton campaign to steal a page or two out of Tricky Dick's 1950 Senatorial campaign against Helen Gahagan Douglas. It will not be pretty.

lark

(23,091 posts)
95. Real question.
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:11 PM
Aug 2015

I read that this is the result of a single poll done by one group that is headed by top GW supporters. Is that true? I'm hoping this is a result shown in multiple polls, but would really like to know.

ShrimpPoboy

(301 posts)
99. It's exciting
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 01:27 PM
Aug 2015

anytime the insurgent candidate looks like he/she can make it a competitive race. I don't know that it's happening yet for big Bern but if he won an early primary like NH, all bets are off for Clinton.

 

Amimnoch

(4,558 posts)
102. "he does face what appears to be an electability problem, even among his staunch supporters"
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 02:03 PM
Aug 2015

Also from the article:

But while Sanders has surged ahead in New Hampshire, he does face what appears to be an electability problem, even among his staunch supporters.

Just 11 percent of likely Democratic voters picked him over Clinton to win the nomination, while 65 percent said she would emerge as the party’s general election candidate.


It's nice for him that he got this traction.

Response to Amimnoch (Reply #102)

PatrynXX

(5,668 posts)
108. the loud mouths from Bernie Sanders???
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 02:42 PM
Aug 2015

as in " I had to place one particularly loud and obnoxious partisan on ignore today for a thread based on a defeatist prognosis by Nate S. ... " hey the ones from Hillary are much much worse. kinda oddly reminds me of putting open carry and concealed carry supporters in the same room. although in that case that is real hate. Putting Hillary and Bernie supporters in the same room same noise cancels each other out and guilt by association is absurd. ie

take the abortion fiasco for the fake video last month.. guilt by association is eventually going to shut that section down. The pro life pages list 38 companies that actually support $$$ for the research and actual abortion services Planned Parenthood provides if needed. Guilt by association would have many of those companies Conservative owned and many pro life / anti abortion supporters either use them or work for them. Thus guilt by association = Pro Life supporters support Abortion. Course I don't believe in any of that nonsense but the right does so if they come playing that game eventually as they usually do this would be the rub. Course if the guilt by association believers really believe in it. this Anti Planned Parenthood is gonna go a bit quieter because it might hurt their pocketbook not just Planned Parenthood.

So if Bernie Sanders people are shouting Hillary's has been much worse. been called names plenty (Republican lover ) for rooting for Bernie. 1. Republicans aren't actually that bad 2. it's mostly the Tea Party now. Republicans are tolerable. 3. Hillary supporters keep that up I'm voting middle. Sure hope I don't follow thru. but never know..

LiberalLovinLug

(14,173 posts)
111. Watch them fall...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 03:01 PM
Aug 2015



I think you add up the fact that many voters are basing their vote for Hillary on "inevitableness" or "winnability", and all they need to see is an example, no matter how small, of Bernie doing well over her inevitableness.

plus the reality that as the campaign goes on more people will hear Bernies message, and if Hillary keeps up with her closed door, elite small paid crowds, and sticks to zipping her mouth on important issues like the TPP, it will only garner Bernie more support as the months go by.

This is great news!


Look, as my sig pic signifies, using the logical side of my brain, I still think Hillary, though not the best choice, will probably win in the end. She has too much money, too much media backing, too much name recognition. But the better Bernie does, the more Hillary will be dragged to the left and forced to address issues that are of concern to many here in DU; the abandoning of traditional Democratic values in favor of Third Way corporatism.

Those in her inner third way circle's whispers in her ear about how she has to get more warmongery, pro free trade, and shut up about Wall Street and financial reform may just be forced to advise her otherwise. So even if she lies through her teeth, at least we will have on record what she will claim is her positions when she has to scramble back to the Dem base for more votes.
 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
121. I think Bernie supporters are smart enough
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 04:46 PM
Aug 2015

To recognize the variability of polling instances ...

You think we're concerned about that? ...

Dude - This is just getting started ...

There is no doubt, however, who has the momentum right now ...

Kammer

(111 posts)
126. bogus
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 05:37 PM
Aug 2015

Sounds like what the right wing wants....

From Daily Kos:

However, there are reasons to exercise caution.
For starters, there's the age-old maxim of, "It's just one poll." It's easy for a single poll to be incorrect, which is why, whenever possible, you want to take a look at what multiple polls are saying—especially when the numbers you're looking at stand apart from all the rest to date. We'll definitely be seeing more surveys of the Granite State very soon, so this is precisely the sort of occasion when you want to wait for more data.

More concerning is FPU's almost nonexistent track record. It appears that FPU has not polled in many cycles. Prior to their March survey, the last poll of theirs we can find dates back to the presidential primaries in 2008. That means they haven't polled for the last three elections (four if you count the general election in 2008), which is a shockingly long time to go dark. Indeed, even taking a single cycle off would be unusual.

FPU's survey was actually conducted by a firm named RKM Research, run by one R. Kelly Myers. Like FPU itself, RKM has released very little polling in recent years, so we can't evaluate how accurate either they or FPU have been in the past.

There's also FPU's question-raising pedigree. The school's president is Andrew Card, whom you may remember served as George W. Bush's White House chief of staff for many years. And FPU's polling arm falls under the auspices of the school's Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication; Fitzwater was White House press secretary for both Ronald Reagan and the elder George Bush. Finally, FPU's media partner, the Boston Herald, is a right-wing tabloid not known for its commitment to the truth—a clam chowdah version of the New York Post.

MisterP

(23,730 posts)
134. 'cause if there's one thing the right wing likes it's an actual social democrat with broad appeal
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 08:01 PM
Aug 2015

and if there's one thing it doesn't like is a go-along-get-along logrolling Wall Street Republicrat

Eric J in MN

(35,619 posts)
146. Let's say the Boston Herald poll is wrong, and the NBC poll is right.
Thu Aug 13, 2015, 09:38 AM
Aug 2015

NBC says Hillary Clinton 42%, Bernie Sanders 32%.

For Bernie Sanders to be in second place and trailing such a famous candidate by just 10 points with several months to go is impressive.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

Gothmog

(145,129 posts)
129. This poll is only as good as the pollster
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 06:48 PM
Aug 2015

This pollster does not have a track record at all http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/08/12/1411400/-New-Hampshire-poll-is-the-first-to-show-Sanders-leading-Clinton

For starters, there's the age-old maxim of, "It's just one poll." It's easy for a single poll to be incorrect, which is why, whenever possible, you want to take a look at what multiple polls are saying—especially when the numbers you're looking at stand apart from all the rest to date. We'll definitely be seeing more surveys of the Granite State very soon, so this is precisely the sort of occasion when you want to wait for more data.

More concerning is FPU's almost nonexistent track record. It appears that FPU has not polled in many cycles. Prior to their March survey, the last poll of theirs we can find dates back to the presidential primaries in 2008. That means they haven't polled for the last three elections (four if you count the general election in 2008), which is a shockingly long time to go dark. Indeed, even taking a single cycle off would be unusual.

FPU's survey was actually conducted by a firm named RKM Research, run by one R. Kelly Myers. Like FPU itself, RKM has released very little polling in recent years, so we can't evaluate how accurate either they or FPU have been in the past.

There's also FPU's question-raising pedigree. The school's president is Andrew Card, whom you may remember served as George W. Bush's White House chief of staff for many years. And FPU's polling arm falls under the auspices of the school's Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication; Fitzwater was White House press secretary for both Ronald Reagan and the elder George Bush. Finally, FPU's media partner, the Boston Herald, is a right-wing tabloid not known for its commitment to the truth—a clam chowdah version of the New York Post.

I would wait until there are other pollsters and polling confirming this result before I got too excited

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
154. It's unfortunate that you think it is your mission
Thu Aug 13, 2015, 11:01 AM
Aug 2015

To tamp down our enthusiasm for our preferred candidate, who happens to not be your preferred candidate ...

"Yeah, you Bernie Supporters, stop getting all happy and excited! ... I think it's wrong that you are enthusiastic and hopeful! ... just STOP IT!

There will be lots of polls between here and there, and they will never match, and they will be all over the map ... This one, however, no matter the methodology, and no matter the specific source, is driving Sanders supporters to take heart, and that ALL things are possible ...

Notwithstanding the efforts by our 'friends' on the other side of the Democratic aisle to bring pessimism and disdain to our merry band - We WILL resist efforts by 'party regulars' to tamp down our support for our preferred candidate ...

Bernie is a legitimate contender, and he is ascendant ... Petty complaints by Hillary supporters won't change this ...

Gothmog

(145,129 posts)
155. I like living in the real world where electablity and viability are issues
Thu Aug 13, 2015, 12:11 PM
Aug 2015

You are welcome to be overjoyed at this poll but do not expect other people to ignore the facts and the real world. Even if Sander wins Iowa (he will need to spend some real money on organization as some point) and New Hampshire (a state that has the same demographics as Vermont), I doubt that Sanders will be the nominee and if he is the nominee I doubt that he will do well in the general election where the Koch Brothers will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate will be spending another billion dollars.

Again, election viability is a key. In my state, a socialist at the top of the ticket would hurt downballot races. My county party chair was taken to task by a local paper for merely attending a Sanders event. http://www.democraticunderground.com/107827740 He is very upset in that he is staying neutral in this contest (as are all party officials) and did not appreciate being called a socialist. That press coverage does not bode well for down ballot races in Texas if Sanders is the nominee. For me the possible effect on down ballot races is a valid concern.

You are entitiled to your own opinion as to the viability of Sanders but you are not entitled to your own facts.

rury

(1,021 posts)
133. I am glad that this is shaping up to be an actual contest...
Wed Aug 12, 2015, 07:58 PM
Aug 2015

...a real race instead of a cakewalk or a coronation.

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