Clashes break out at Athens anti-austerity march
Source: AP
ATHENS, Greece (AP) The latest on Greece's financial crisis (all times local):
___
9:15 p.m.
Clashes have broken out at an anti-austerity rally by thousands of protesters outside Parliament in Athens.
Riot police used pepper spray and tear gas Wednesday night to fight back youths in the crowd who were hurling Molotov cocktails and rocks at police.
Police said about 12,500 people were at the rally at Syntagma Square. The clashes broke out just as lawmakers were starting to debate an austerity bill that includes consumer tax increases and pension reforms.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who has faced strident opposition to the bill from his own radical left Syriza party, says it's the best possible deal he could get to prevent Greece from being forced out of Europe's joint euro currency.
Read more: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/824d113e8356484ea9b4f72728349eeb/latest-german-official-says-tsipras-criticism-unhelpful
https://twitter.com/AP/status/621382883635298304
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)I would be mad as a hornet if I were them.
J_J_
(1,213 posts)I just read in another comment that the Guardian reported 90% of the last bailout went to bank interest and services.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Last edited Wed Jul 15, 2015, 03:20 PM - Edit history (1)
twitter reports
Motolov cocktails have been let off, and the police are now tear-gassing the crowd
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/15/greek-crisis-mps-bailout-imf-debt-relief-alexis-tsipras-live#block-55a6a386e4b07f297df302b9
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)You have a lower opinion of the Greeks than I do.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Greek MPs are debating tough economic measures they must approve by the end of the day in order for an 86bn eurozone bailout deal to go ahead.
The new legislation includes tax rises and an increase in the retirement age.
PM Alexis Tsipras has said he does not believe in the deal, but has urged MPs to agree to the measures.
"If I don't have your support it will be hard for me to remain as prime minister," Mr Tsipras has told his MPs, as government estimates suggest between 30 and 40 will oppose the measures.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33535205
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)But to avoid it, the government has to act responsibly. For too many years they haven't. I hope Greece can attract foreign companies (and governments) to do business there, get its tax system in order, etc. Seems the quickest way out of this mess.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Along with responsible government and economic reforms. It's like a chair - it needs all four legs. Greece can supply only two of them...
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)Greece to follow through to stop spending money year after year that it literally doesnt have and is never going to have?
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)per the IMF, the Troika needs to postpone all loan payments for up to 30 years and invest in Greece to rebuild its economy.
Also per Krugman and other economists who foresaw this from the outset. Krugman has written that with the current euro structure, which favors the northern countries that are net exporters, the north needs to provide $$ to southern countries that are net importers. Not unlike the US, where some states (say NY) pay more in tax dollars than they gain in benefits, while other states take in more benefits than they pay in tax dollars.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)When times are good and you have plenty of tourists and are collecting all of the taxes from them and your own citizens then you are doing pretty good when the tourists though arent as plentiful and or are not spending as much when they do come then your going to have trouble.
Greece needs something else to generate income with and considering their small size education might be the key because while they are small they have a good location and they have all the things college kids like such as nice weather and beaches and I dont mean the 1 - 2 year colleges either but I mean building up to be the one of the ones people are willing to fight and push to get their their kids in for 4 - 6 years worth of college over colleges in other countries.
If they had that then the tourists would be more of a cherry on top for providing extra income for the country.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Tourism is not their only industry. They are the leading international shipping country in the world. They also have several other industries, including multiple industrial products (which rely on imports), food processing, petroleum, and more.
What crushed their economy was a combination of: 1. loans they were forced to take out to pay off interest on loans (eg the Troika forced the Greek government to bail out the privately owned German, French and Greek banks), and 2. austerity that hit the most vulnerable the hardest and destroyed internal demand for goods and services, and 3. an oligarchy that refuses to pay taxes (not unlike pretty much every other country in the world at this point. Think the Walmart heirs.)
Per Krugman, the northern European countries are net exporters. A weak euro is to their advantage because it lowers the cost of their goods to the rest of the world, which boosts their exports. The southern European countries are net importers. A weak euro is to their disadvantage because it increases the cost of their imports.
Net importers that control their own currency, eg the US, can use monetary policy to balance their imports versus exports. For example, by keeping the dollar strong relative to other currencies, we lower the cost of imports us.
When net importers don't control their own currency, they have no tools available to keep their economies in balance. They are left to take out loans to make up the difference, and eventually forced into permanent recession. That is what happened to *all* the PIIGS countries. Greece is just the smallest and weakest, and therefore the first to go down. The rest will be following.
Monetary policy has consistently been used to keep the euro weak, benefitting the net exporters at the expense of the net importers. But without anything done to support the net importers, who are damaged by that policy. The structure of the Euro doesn't support all the eurozone members; just the net exporters. Again, in the US the weaker states are supported by the stronger states.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)But anyway yes Greece does have shipping, thats true but clearly its not enough because they are in trouble and the shipping can be rerouted to other ports if ordered to do so in retaliation if Greece was to refuse point blank to honor its debt, not saying its right just pointing out that that it can happen.
Becoming a country with top tier universities though has some long term advantages for Greece as it could give them some sway with the kids who graduate from such a university throughout the world not to mention if they had a top research one the income it could potentially generate from patents could be substantial.
In other words it turns Greece into a mecca for higher education again.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)My point is that the EuroZONEwas NOT set up to enable the stronger economies to support the weaker ones. It NEEDED TO BE SET UP TO DO THAT in order to succeed. Instead, it was set up to support the net exporters, and drain the net importers. That is what is happening.
Greece can't make itself a mecca for education because it has nothing left to build with. You realize that when they impose austerity, they're cutting education too, right? To make itself a mecca for education it will need economic stimulus, which the Troika refuses to provide.
All it can do is pay interest on loans, and it needs loans to do that. It is totally unable to ever climb out of the hole that the failed Troika policies shoved it into.
They could increase the austerity to zero pensions (already cut by 44% before this latest round of austerity) and zero healthcare and zero education, and by so doing eventually increase the unemployment rate to 100%...and still just keep sticking the Greek people (now corpses) with the tab.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)have to start a repayment for say 30 - 50 years (which is what should be done imo) it could give them time to build it.
It wouldnt be easy but like I said it could make it so they arent so dependent on one area.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Not only has the Troika refused to extend their debt even 5 years, never mind 30, they've also doubled down on austerity.
The IMF told the Troika back in 2010 that without significant debt relief, the loan/austerity program would fail. The Troika ordered that report hidden for the last 5 years, and called Varoufakis a liar. The IMF broke down ahead of the July 5 election and leaked the report.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)especially if Greece does the reforms they are being asked to make and doesnt renege on them.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)even though the IMF said was necessary for any program to work back in 2010.
Instead, the Troika hid the report for 5 years.
Now, the IMF says either significant debt relief immediately or postpone debt for 30 years, and Troika says absolutely not. Or rather, Germany says absolutely not.
The *only* thing that gives me hope is that the IMF has hinted that without debt relief or postponement, they will not take part in any further loans.
I think Merkel was ok with debt relief until after a meeting with Schauble. The real problem is that Schauble wants Greece to leave the Euro altogether. He is on record as saying that as far back as 2012. Now he is floating "five years. My guess is that he's trying to get them temporarily out of the Euro in order to shut the door behind them. That's why they tried to claim that the Oxi vote was a vote to leave the Euro, as opposed to "no" to more austerity. They're putting the screws to the people to get them to want to leave.
Frankly they should take the deal to leave, with a tacit recognition that they won't be coming back. The sooner they do, the sooner they can stop the hemmorhaging, and the sooner they can start some kind of re-building.
Either that, or sell some 1%ers a couple of islands and then raise the taxes on them to the moon.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)Summary: At the last review in May 2014, Greeces public debt was assessed to be getting back on a path toward sustainability, though it remained highly vulnerable to shocks. By late summer 2014, with interest rates having declined further, it appeared that no further debt relief would have been needed under the November 2012 framework, if the program were to have been implemented as agreed. But significant changes in policies since thennot least, lower primary surpluses and a weak reform effort that will weigh on growth and privatizationare leading to substantial new financing needs. Coming on top of the very high existing debt, these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable. This conclusion holds whether one examines the stock of debt under the November 2012 framework or switches the focus to debt servicing or gross financing needs. To ensure that debt is sustainable with high probability, Greek policies will need to come back on track but also, at a minimum, the maturities of existing European loans will need to be extended significantly while new European financing to meet financing needs over the coming years will need to be provided on similar concessional terms. But if the package of reforms under consideration is weakened furtherin particular, through a further lowering of primary surplus targets and even weaker structural reformshaircuts on debt will become necessary.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)(This was back in 2013)
IMF Concedes It Made Mistakes on Greece
In an internal document marked "strictly confidential," the IMF said it badly underestimated the damage that its prescriptions of austerity would do to Greece's economy, which has been mired in recession for the last six years.
The IMF also said its own analysis of the future development of debt was wrong "by a large margin." The fund's debt-sustainability analysisa critical piece of forecasting"included stress tests but these turned out to be mild compared with actual outcomes."
Slowing the pace of austerity would have helped Greece's economy, but wasn't politically possible, the fund said.
"While earlier adjustment of the targets could have tempered the contraction, the program would have then required additional financing," which neither the IMF nor euro-area governments were prepared to give, the document said.
The paper criticized Greek governments for failing to implement structural economic changes that could have propped up the private sector and said the pain of the adjustment was "unevenly spread across society."
But it said there were few precedents for the size of the spending cuts and tax increases that Greece implemented to hit the targets.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324299104578527202781667088
So regarding austerity, an economically poor decision was made based on political considerations and then the Greek officials were blamed for failing when sailing uncharted waters.
And on seeing the failures, instead of slowing the austerity to help support the Greek economy, they double down on it?
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)with all the concessions it had made that things might not be as bad are now but since Greece did not they are going to need further help and the IMF has been telling Germany and the other lenders that yes Greece fucked but the lenders are going to need to wait longer to get their money or they risk just making worse and the lenders getting nothing or atleast next to nothing.
Frankly I think the lenders would be stupid not to wait even if its for a 100 years to get all their money back.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)they were trying to enact.
And the IMF made other, major mistakes outlined in the article. The fact is, the IMF messed up big time. As did the ECB and the EZ.
If you read the article, you also would have seen that it would have cost Europe less had they instituted significant debt forgiveness from the beginning and forced the private banks to take their losses, instead of moving the loans to the taxpayers.
I don't think they should wait 100 years. I think they should do for Greece what Greece did for the Germans post WW2, and simply forgive the debt, take the losses and move on.
Don't forget that the interest is pure profit, and the fact is the Germans in particular have been profiting from Greece's troubles for years and in numerous ways.
The money exists solely as accounting entries. Even the IMF offers that as one of two options: either write down the debt or postpone it for 30 years.
I don't think it's right to stick their unborn grandchildren with the debt. That is Germany's current excuse for still refusing to pay war reparations that were awarded to Greece in 1946, along with their claim that they never surrendered to Greece. Well, what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
And I suspect that is why Germany is refusing to postpone the debt for 30 years. They know that Greece will then be able to turn that same rationale right back on them.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)Would it be nice if Germany was the sole lender and forgave Greece? Sure but i dont see that happening so the best that Greece can probably hope for is that extension, least it would give them the time to hopefully get back on their feet, pay the debt off and then tell the lenders where to shove it.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)The forgiven loans:
Greece and Spain helped postwar Germany recover.
Germany emerged from the second world war still owing debt that originated with the first world war: the reparations imposed on the country following the Versailles peace conference in 1919.
By 1953, Germany also had debts based on reconstruction loans made immediately after the end of the second world war. Germany's creditors included Greece and Spain, Pakistan and Egypt, as well as the US, UK and France.
The debt cancellation for Germany was swift, taking place in advance of an actual crisis. Germany was given large cancellation of 50% of its debt. The deal covered all debts, including those owed by the private sector and even individuals. It also covered all creditors. No one was allowed to "hold out" and extract greater profits than anyone else. Any problems would be dealt with by negotiations between equals rather than through sanctions or the imposition of undemocratic policies.
Perhaps the most innovative feature of the London agreement was a clause that said West Germany should only pay for debts out of its trade surplus, and any repayments were limited to 3% of exports earnings every year. This meant those countries that were owed debt had to buy West German exports in order to be paid. It meant West Germany would only pay from genuine earnings, without recourse to new loans. And it meant Germany's creditors had an interest in the country growing and its economy thriving.
Following the London deal, West Germany experienced an "economic miracle", with the debt problem resolved and years of economic growth. The medicine doled out to heavily indebted countries over the last 30 years could not be more different. Instead, the practice since the early 1980s has been to bail out reckless lenders through giving new loans, while forcing governments to implement austerity and free-market liberalisation to become "more competitive".
As a result of this, from Latin America and Africa in the 80s and 90s to Greece, Ireland and Spain today, poverty has increased and inequality soared. In Africa in the 80s and 90s, the number of people living in extreme poverty increased by 125 million, while economies shrank. In Greece today, the economy has shrunk by more than 20%, while one in two young people are unemployed. In both cases, debt ballooned.
The priority of an indebted government today is to repay its debts, whatever the amount of the budget these repayments consume. In contrast to the 3% limit on German debt payments, today the IMF and World Bank regard debt payments of up to 15-25% of export revenues as being "sustainable" for impoverished countries. The Greek government's foreign debt payments are around 30% of exports.
When debts have been "restructured", they are only a portion of the total debts owed, with only willing creditors participating. In 2012, only Greece's private creditors had debt reduced. Creditors that held British or Swiss law debt were also able to "hold out" against the restructuring, and will doubtless pursue Greece for many years to come.
The "strategy" in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain today is to put the burden of adjustment solely on the debtor country to make its economy more competitive through mass unemployment and wage cuts. But without creditors like Germany willing to buy more of their exports, this will not happen, bringing pain without end.http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/27/greece-spain-helped-germany-recover
The war reparations:
After World War II, both West Germany and East Germany were obliged to pay war reparations to the Allied governments, according to the Potsdam Conference. Other Axis nations were obliged to pay war reparations according to the Paris Peace Treaties of 1947
Greece[edit]
Excerpt Akte R 27320, page 114 (political archive of the German Federal Foreign Office)
In 1942, the Greek Central Bank was forced by the occupying Nazi regime to loan 476 million Reichsmarks at 0% interest to Nazi Germany. In 1960, Greece accepted 115 million Marks as compensation for Nazi crimes. Nevertheless, past Greek governments have insisted that this was only a down-payment, not complete reparations.[1] In 1990, immediately prior to German reunification, West Germany and East Germany signed the Two Plus Four Agreement with the former Allied countries of the United States, Great Britain, France, and the Soviet Union. Since that time, Germany has insisted that all matters concerning World War II, including further reparations to Greece, are closed because Germany officially surrendered to the Allies and to no other parties, including Greece. On Sunday, February 8, 2015, the Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras appeared in front of the Greek parliament and officially demanded that Germany pay further reparations to Greece.[2] On April 6, 2015, Greece demanded Germany pay it the equivalent of $303 billion in reparations for the war. Germany replied that the reparations issue was resolved in 1990.[3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_reparations_for_World_War_II
An article that I read a week or two ago explained in more detail. Can't seem to find it now; can't remember where I saw it. But Greece has been asking for its war reparations repeatedly since they were awarded in 1946. Forced loans never paid back. Half a million people slaughtered during the Nazi occupation. Infrastructure damaged. First W. Germany said it was unfair to stick it with the entire bill. Then after the reunification they said it was unfair to stick their children and grandchildren with the bill. Then they said the 1990 payment was all they were paying. Now they say they never surrendered to Greece, so the matter is closed.
metalbot
(1,058 posts)WHY are they the leading international shipping country?
<insert answer here>
And why should the rest of Europe subsidize that?
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)I'm guessing because of their strategic location, ports and very early entry into the business.
Germany's container shipping industry, on the other hand, tanked back in 2012. Why do you think that is?
(hint: a 16% drop in shipping into the Mediterranean region, due to recession in Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal.)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9473476/World-shipping-crisis-threatens-German-dominance-as-Greeks-win-long-game.html
And why should the rest of Europe subsidize that?
Why were Europeans forced to subsidize private bank losses when the Troika turned them into public debt?
(hint: welfare for the 1% billed to the 99%)
metalbot
(1,058 posts)But the key issue is taxation. Greek shipping companies pay NO taxes on shipping operations profits or the sale of ships. Not low taxes, literally no taxes. They also don't pay any taxes on foreign revenue. So yes, the greeks have the largest shipping industry in the world, because it's more profitable to operate from Greece. Once you tax shipping, it isn't clear that there are significant advantages to being a Greek shipping company.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greek-shipping-industry-frets-over-higher-taxes-1436693977
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)metalbot
(1,058 posts)In the post of yours that I responded to, you are arguing that in addition to tourism, Greek has a shipping industry.
It only has a shipping industry because they don't tax it. This is also partially true of their tourism industry (significant tax breaks on tourist islands).
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)would agree with you). They could tax it at a lower rate than other countries to keep their competitive advantage and still be collecting some taxes.
Not a completely different issue, at all.
The requirement to raise taxes was one that the Greek government has struggled with because its 1% refuses to pay its share.
The Troika bailed out corrupt German, French and yes, Greek, banks to subsidize the 1% at the expense of the 99%. The only fight left is over which 99% is going to pay for it, when none of them caused it.
The deeper I dig into the crisis in Greece and the rest of the PIIGS, the more I see the war of the 1% on the 99%.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)At this point, it's like protesting cancer.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)After all the EU wasnt setup to be a giant daycare.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Which is better, humane action today or humanitarian action in a year?
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)their end of it fully so should the EU help them based still on promises only or should it get something a bit more solid than just promises from someone thats broken their word once already?
An example, say a person with an addiction would be in court and the court decided for leniency provided the person agree to attend therapy, now fast forward 2 months later and the person is refusing to attend therapy thus breaking their word to the court and they have also fallen back into their addiction.
Should the court be as lenient again or should the court in order to make sure it knows the person attends therapy put a tracking device on them with an order to the person call in so that the court can arrange transportation if need be for them to attend therapy?
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)We must find ways to punish those responsible without condemning the innocent. We must learn to separate the question of the culpability of politicians from that of the welfare of the citizens. The Greek "agreement" takes a shotgun to the guilty and innocent alike. That amounts to collective punishment, which is banned under the Geneva Conventions.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)I'm not advocating that Greece pay up the money "now" either, they clearly are going to need decades to get back on their feet and begin repaying that debt though and the lenders like Germany needs to wake up and realize that and ease up on Greece some as you cannot squeeze blood out of a stone, its just not possible.
On the other hand Greece cannot keep spending more money than its taking in because the math just doesnt work, I wish it did though because it would make it a hell of alot easier for me in reallife.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)predicted it would back in 2010.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'm not against debt forgiveness/default at all for them; but it's not the case that getting rid of the debt would solve their problem. They need a weaker currency.
dembotoz
(16,799 posts)Igel
(35,300 posts)Tsipras is also making a bad situation worse.
"It's the best deal we could get" is fine.
But saying, essentially, that he thinks it's irrational tends to suggest he'll intentionally fail to implement it unless Greece's collective tootsies are held to the fire. That's both what's happened in the past and the attitude that's led to some of the draconian impositions in the latest proposal. Of course, it's great for internal politics, and he's sweating.
"I don't like it, but I'll be damned if we fail to implement it precisely as agreed" wouldn't be prudent for domestic politics but would probably help increase confidence from those Greece owes.
"It's the best deal we could get," followed by silence, threads the needle.
Response to Bosonic (Original post)
1000words This message was self-deleted by its author.
Ilios Meows
(26 posts)This is a bad situation regardless.
bread_and_roses
(6,335 posts)I can't believe there are people here bashing Tsipras and the Greek people.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)In this case its about the math and the math just doesnt add up if Greece is spending more than its taking in all the time, you can spend more than you are taking in occasionally but it is not sustainable to do it all the time atleast not for a country like Greece with their largely tourist based economy especially not when the worldwide economy is still not recovered.
Hopefully they will make some adjustments so that way in lean times like this their country can survive without the tourists.
bread_and_roses
(6,335 posts)And about protecting them and their investments and making sure they are not paying taxes. All over the world. Read more and listen less to the mainstream swill.
cstanleytech
(26,281 posts)Yo_Mama
(8,303 posts)Baclava
(12,047 posts)cemaphonic
(4,138 posts)It looks like he and Schäuble would have found a way for a somewhat orderly Grexit (and both seemed willing to shoulder a lot of the blame from opponents of that option), but it wasn't politically possible because Tsipras and Merkel were committed to staying with the EU.
Explains a bit about some of the mixed signals and confusing political moves coming out of the Greek camp for the last few months.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)Then going back to the Drachma and all greater economic chaos that would entail.
An exit would mean immediate and even more severe austerity.
Do they really think there is painless option out there? Did they think they could keep spending and have the EU taxpayers keep footing the deficit forever?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)going to moderate the pain.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Given a devaluable drachma and capital controls they can have a bit more input in where the huge cuts happen. OTOH given the displayed competence of this government that might not be the best idea...
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)and Greek private banks. 89% of the loans went directly to banks. The Troika effectively bailed out private banks and put the loan payments plus interest on the public shoulders.
It is a *lot* more complicated than some DUers soaking up the 1% party line seem to understand.
Nihil
(13,508 posts)Tourists are able to get more cash out from ATMs than the locals so
by then paying in cash *to* the locals for their services, that forms
a significant (to Greece) way around the enforced financial limits
that are ham-stringing businesses which need imports.
Riots - and other forms of violent civil unrest - really aren't going to
help maintain or increase that lifeline ...