Poll of African-American voters gives Rahm 10-point lead over Garcia

[brooklynite]

Source: Chicago Sun-Times

A new election poll shows Mayor Rahm Emanuel with a 10-percentage-point lead among African-American voters.

The poll of 1,003 registered voters, conducted for the Chicago Defender and WVON radio, has Emanuel at 46 percent and Jesus “Chuy” Garcia at 36 percent, with 18 percent undecided.

Computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted March 25-26, with a mix of about 60 percent landline phones and 40 percent mobile phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Read more: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/488681/poll-shows-rahm-10-point-lead-garcia

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Yesterday, I was told that the Chicago Tribune couldn't be trusted and that thepoll was intentionally skewed. Can't wait to hear the excuse for today.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Poll Truthers, on the right and left, make me chuckle./NT

[JI7]

7. i Don't like Rahm much

But this denying reality just makes people look stupid.

I wonder if people will claim these are third way Dlc one percenters

[geek tragedy]

2. I knew Garcia was toast when Howard Dean endorsed him nt

[JI7]

3. I believe rahm is leading among hispanics also

And whites and just about all demos.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I believe the African American and Latino numbers are reversed, thus cancelling each other out.

Rahm's huge lead comes from his 3-1 advantage among white voters.

[donnasgirl]

5. http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2015/03/rahm-emanuels-fake-poll.html

I believe Sir Rahmington will lose this election, this is the third article I have read this week. At least I hope so

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I might be persuaded if...

I might be persuaded if the Chicago Sun Times Poll:


http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/478986/mayoral-runoff-results-little-changed


and the Chicago Defender WVON radio poll didn't show Rahm ahead among all voters and among a crucial demographic:


http://www.wvon.com/wvon-chicago-defender-2015-mayoral-poll-results

[donnasgirl]

16. As i stated i can hope,

But David Schaffer is saying that the challenger’s internal polling is showing a Garcia win but anything can happen in Politics I guess.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Nothing wrong with hope...

I don't have a dog in this fight as I have extraordinary limited knowledge of Chicago politics... I can only go by what I observe and my observation suggests Rahm is going to beat Chuy.

[donnasgirl]

18. Well if i can hope

I hope your wrong. LOL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. FIXED

"Well if i can hope I hope all the published polls are wrong and very wrong."

[donnasgirl]

20. Agreed

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Good luck to you...You have Jesus ! on your side./NT

[cosmicone]

6. I knew Garcia was toast when he became popular

in DU's echo chamber.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. DU is a great contra-indicator./NT

[1StrongBlackMan]

22. ...

[SoapBox]

8. People are stupid...

They probably think everything is just good...

Because they are too busy drooling, slack-jawed, while playing games or texting.

[JI7]

10. these are people who actually live there

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Ask your interlocutor what are the most important issues in the race without googling them...

I sure can't ...That's why I am refraining from commenting on the choices.

[1StrongBlackMan]

23. Posted without verbal comment ...

Thread Title:

Poll of African-American voters gives Rahm 10-point lead over Garcia

DUer response:

People are stupid...They probably think everything is just good...

Because they are too busy drooling, slack-jawed, while playing games or texting.

[cosmicone]

25. I know huh? Who needs republican bigots when we have DU n/t

[1StrongBlackMan]

26. I'm sure (hoping like hell) he/she didn't mean it in that way ...

that's just the way it came out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. I suspect he isn't a bigot...

I suspect he isn't a bigot, however I strongly believe he quickly saw the title, saw that real people disagree with him and the DU echo chamber, and consequently they must be stupid...

This site is very much an echo chamber as its nutty internet counterpart on the right.

[Cosmic Kitten]

13. Yawn ;~( 10 points from 1000 people pfft

http://www.wvon.com/wvon-chicago-defender-2015-mayoral-poll-results/



The age demographics
are the most interesting.

Chuy gets more young votes
and the undecided tend to be young.

But notice also, the poll uses
"Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews"
the least reliable of polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. If the sample is too small...

If the sample is too small, ergo:

Yawn ;~( 10 points from 1000 people pfft)

-Cosmic Kitten

Why are you even making inferences from them:

The age demographics
are the most interesting.

Chuy gets more young votes
and the undecided tend to be young.

But notice also, the poll uses
"Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews"
the least reliable of polls.

-Cosmic Kitten

[Cosmic Kitten]

27. What "inference" has been drawn?

A poll of a tiny demographic
isn't a valid gauge of
a huge population.

However, of those who
did respond the age
cross tabs are interesting.

No inference,
just an observation

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. How can you make inferences from a sample that you suggested is not robust enough?

And then you further divided the sample the sample you suggested wasn't robust enough thus making it more useless...


All I know is the evidence suggests Rahm is going to beat Chuy and beat him by a comfortable margin and the evidence is becoming cumulative.

[Cosmic Kitten]

32. lol, yeah the inferences thing again

What was the inference?

[former9thward]

14. Emanuel won all of the AA wards in the February primary.

And that was when there were AA candidates in the race. No surprise at his lead now.

[Thespian2]

24. Too much money going to Rahmadon...

If this election can be stolen from Garcia, it will be. Money don't like to lose.

[sulphurdunn]

30. "Nobody ever went broke

underestimating the intelligence of the American public." H.L Mencken

[Cosmic Kitten]

31. Is the Chicago Tribune a right-wing paper?

Interesting read on the
Chicago Tribune.

I'm interested in the poll
results from the previous
Chicago elections cited.

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2015/03/rahm-emanuels-fake-poll.html

Back to the right-wing Tribune for a minute. The brass there have a well-known and well-documented bias against progressive candidates. Its history of so-called "independent polling" reflects that regressive Republican bias. Whether it was the insurgent mayoral campaign of Jane Byrne in 1979 or the revolutionary mayoral victory of Harold Washington over the Chicago machine in 1983 or Pat Quinn's remarkable win over Bill Brady in the face of a Republican tide in the 2010 gubernatorial race-- the Tribune poll never had ANY of these candidates in the lead, EVER!

Each of them-- Jane Byrne, Harold Washington and Pat Quinn, a woman, an African-American, and a progressive independent, respectively-- were, at this point in their respective campaigns, between 20 and 30 points behind their Tribune-backed and endorsed opponent.

That's the pattern-- try to smother the progressive candidate with negative "polls." That's the playbook of the Radical Right. Hide the truth.

[brooklynite]

33. Is the Chicago Defender a right wing paper?

The Chicago Defender is a Chicago-based weekly newspaper founded in 1905 by an African American for primarily African-American readers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chicago_Defender

Now, when Emanuel wins on Tuesday, as EVERY poll has indicated he will, that'll mean the voting was rigged as well as all the polls, right?