The Exit Polls were wrong again.

[aaaaaa5a]

When the race was categorized as 'to close to call" I thought it was going to be an early night. Additionally, there were reports that only %27 of white voted for Jones. And that Jones was not winning a big enough share of the white college educated vote to win statewide.
The TV coverage was slanted with pundits talking as if Moore would win. Their only source for this early prognosis were the exit polls.

The problem was neither number was accurate. Tonight we had a "reverse Bradley effect." There were white voters who told exit pollsters they had voted for Moore when they clearly did not.

Going forward exit polls have no credibility.

[eppur_se_muova]

1. Ummmmm ... no.

It was largely a matter of rural counties reporting first; this is a very common phenomenon in every election cycle. AL's four largest cities had some of the last votes to be reported, and it was those cities that gave Jones the election. If you followed this thread, it was clear early on that Moore was underperforming, failing to win by as large margins he needed in rural counties. It was also clear that turnout, especially black turnout, which everyone knew would be crucial to Jones, was unusually high. In fact, that was announced early this morning. I would have been a bit surprised if Moore had won, once the precinct counts started piling up.

[aaaaaa5a]

5. I think you misunderstand the OP.

I am talking about exit polls only. Not initially vote totals.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. You are exactly correct. Read them all.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

2. MSNBC coverage said from the beginning

that Moore wasn't winning by as much as he should in red counties and Jones winning by more in blue counties. Additionally, they reported that red county turnout was low and blue county turnout was high.

Don't know who you watched, but the exit polls were pretty solid.

And the black vote is what won this for Jones--let's make no mistake.

[GusBob]

3. When I heard an exit poll number, I figured we won

30 % of Voters were African American. That's a poll statistic you can't fake

The other exit poll number I hung my hat on: trump approval rating of 48% amongst voters in a state where it should be 65

[Awsi Dooger]

4. That 27% number seemed impossible to overcome

It probably was wrong. It caused me to mostly give up. It led me to leave the house and buy three bags of pea pebbles at Home Depot, for my gardening project tomorrow.

Plus a trip to Burger King. That was probably the key to Jones' victory. The power of Burger King can never be underestimated.

It will be interesting to see what the final estimates turn out to be from demographic to demographic.

[Alea]

7. Careful, another DUer gave me a rash of crap for saying exit polls are not always right

Then doubled down on his/her rash of crap.