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Tue Dec 12, 2017, 12:03 AM

For tonight's Debbie Downers - 5 Reasons why Jones could win tomorrow

1) Democrats have been outperforming all year, especially this past November. Some very red districts that haven't gone Democratic for decades have flipped blue, including in places like Georgia and Oklahoma. But (I think) no seat flipped red.
2) Jones is well within the margin of error of the polling average. That's fantastic for a democrat in Alabama.
3) Moore got only 51% of the vote in his previous election and that was all before his child molesting came out.
4) A Fox News poll last month showed Trump with only 49% approval in Alabama. Obama scored 52%.
5) Prediction Markets give Jones a 35% chance of victory. That's double the odds they gave Trump and we all know what happened there.

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Reply For tonight's Debbie Downers - 5 Reasons why Jones could win tomorrow (Original post)
marylandblue Dec 2017 OP
pangaia Dec 2017 #1
Orange Free State Dec 2017 #2
pangaia Dec 2017 #3
AlexSFCA Dec 2017 #4
marylandblue Dec 2017 #5
msongs Dec 2017 #13
BigmanPigman Dec 2017 #6
Rhiannon12866 Dec 2017 #7
Dark n Stormy Knight Dec 2017 #8
dalton99a Dec 2017 #9
sandensea Dec 2017 #10
questionseverything Dec 2017 #11
Ken Burch Dec 2017 #14
questionseverything Dec 2017 #15
sandensea Dec 2017 #16
questionseverything Dec 2017 #12
LeftInTX Dec 2017 #17
LeftInTX Dec 2017 #18
marylandblue Dec 2017 #19

Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 12:10 AM

1. One reason Moore will probably win

JUST in......Stolen election...

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Response to pangaia (Reply #1)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 12:23 AM

2. Does anyone know how to get the UN involved...

...if you suspect that elections are crooked? I am serious, they will send observers in. Jimmy Carter used to do that in third world countries. Well, Alabama is basically that, a third world country. If nothing else it would be a well deserved embarrassment.

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Response to Orange Free State (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 12:24 AM

3. I have no idea.

And it is not just AL that is a 3rd world country these days..

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 12:30 AM

4. this is a very important test if

Jones wins then there is hope and it would mean that not only dems can win big in 2018 but also this: if the reddest of the red states Alabama canít supress enough vote or cheat/steal election, then other states should be even better for us. If moore wins, Iím gonna have to take a break from all news and DU for a while. As for tonight, Iíll go to bed with positive thoughts.

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Response to AlexSFCA (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 12:33 AM

5. I'll be happy if it's even close

This was notnsupposed to be a competitive state. If we win, it's like a free gift.

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Response to marylandblue (Reply #5)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 03:31 AM

13. close means you are locked IN the camp and the guards are on the outside, free nt

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 01:25 AM

6. My mindset is...expect the worst.

He will win and I will not be surprised since I expected it. If he loses I will be surprised and celebrate. This philosophy helps me deal with disappointments without becoming suicidal.

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 01:28 AM

7. You are absolutely right! Democrats won big last month in my traditionally Republican district!

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 01:33 AM

8. I am pessimistic about this, but am glad to see not everyone is.

GOTV!

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 01:41 AM

9. 70% of the vote expected by 11 pm, but results not certified until December 27

We'll find out

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 02:47 AM

10. I just hope the state GOPee doesn't steal this

like they did against Don Siegelman in '02 (which then emboldened them to jail him outright, you'll recall).

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Response to sandensea (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 02:50 AM

11. bama supremes just ruled against retaining ballot images

http://bradblog.com/?p=12395

Why not just fight to view the actual paper ballots? Brakey explains: "You cannot get at the original ballots. They will not let you touch them. In order to get to them, you have to prove fraud first. And how are you going to prove fraud if you can't get to the ballots? That's the Catch-22. The ballot images are a tool to get us to the originals."

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Response to questionseverything (Reply #11)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 04:00 AM

14. Is there a way to appeal the 'Bama 'Premes ruling before the ballots are discarded?

 

n/t.

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Response to Ken Burch (Reply #14)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 12:38 PM

15. it is not that the ballots will be discarded, it is that no human gets to look at the ballots

w/o first proving fraud

that was the point of the images, to get to the ballots

bama sos is working overtime to avoid transparency

//////

canning from brad blog explains....

In his Dec. 11 Order Granting Preliminary Injunction, Judge Roman Ashley Shaul order simply required that all "counties employing digital ballot scanners in the Dec. 12, 2017 election...to set their voting machines to save ALL PROCESSED IMAGES in order to preserve all digital ballot images. This order applies to those machines that have such a setting and does not apply to any machine that does not allow for processed images to be saved."

The court noted that "there was little argument...that the law requires digital images to be preserved as a matter of Alabama law and Federal Law. The Secretary of State's Office..does have the ability to provide election information to election officials as a matter of course and routinely does so; and...all parties agreed that the relief requested would require nominal resources and cost on the part of the Defendants."

Subsequently, Greg Palast Tweeted that he had been informed by attorneys John Brakey and Chris Sautter that the GA Supreme Court had stayed Judge Shaul's order based up an ex parte complaint filed by the State.

If accurate, that is deeply troubling for two reasons.

(1) Under Rule 3.5 of the Alabama Rules of Professional Conduct, it is ordinarily unethical for an attorney to engage in ex parte communications with a judge --- communications about the substantive merits of litigation in which the opposition does not have adequate notice and opportunity to be heard.

2. Given the absence of significant costs and the clarity of the legal obligation to preserve the record, it is difficult to comprehend any reason for the stay --- other than a desire to preserve the ability of local election officials to alter the outcome of this pivotal election without leaving the evidence of that alteration for all to see via the preserved digital images.

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Response to questionseverything (Reply #15)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 01:51 PM

16. In other words, they intend to steal today's election.

And then discard the ballots.

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 04:32 PM

17. Jon Ossoff lost in GA.

This is a special election for one candidate in AL.

Moore's last election was a primary. He outran a sitting senator.

I don't expect Jones to win. If he does, I gladly eat crow.

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Response to marylandblue (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 10:56 PM

18. I will be enjoying the sweet taste of crow!!!

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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #18)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 10:59 PM

19. Goes down better with BBQ sauce and a side of grits :)

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