Does anybody know anything about Monmouth polling? They have Gillespie up over Northam.

[octoberlib]

Link to tweet

New Monmouth poll of #vagov has Republican Ed Gillespie up over Democrat Ralph Northam by a margin of 48%-47%. They had Northam up 5 in Sept

[MFM008]

1. another poll had him up

8 points a couple of days ago.

[lagomorph777]

2. Dear lord save us from that piece of crap.

Virginians: VOTE!!

[Dawson Leery]

3. Their sample suggests and an electorate that is older and whiter than 2014.

Two other polls have Ralph up by an average of 5 points.

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

With that said, the GOP's racist nature is showing (MS-13 ads).

[pstokely]

10. but isn't that the demographic that shows up in midterm elections?

?

[Dawson Leery]

13. Based upon the swings in the special elections of 2017, no.

[octoberlib]

12. Thanks!

[onenote]

4. 538 gives them an A+ rating with a slightly Democratic tilt

[octoberlib]

11. Thanks for the info! Democrats have got to show up for this one.

[Ace Rothstein]

5. Republican voters coming home to their candidate.

We need to stop thinking that centrist Republicans will ever not vote Republican.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. The Willie Horton style of attacks are working.

[Dawson Leery]

9. +1,000,000

Always remember, the right flank of the GOP wanted to keep WWII contained to fighting Japan/and many wanted to align with Hitler.

[FSogol]

7. It is all going to come down to GOTV. n/t

[Thrill]

8. Hes got some really nasty ads out there

So wouldn’t surprise me

[ileus]

14. Ed's going down by 20 points at least.

There just isn't enough votes in all of the red parts of Va to lift him to a win.



100% of the red areas votes won't get him within 5 points...


Today we've got a death grip on Va like we've had on California and many Northern States. Those people can vote all they won't but we'll rule them from here on out....let them move to WV if they don't like it.

[octoberlib]

15. Now this is what I like to hear!

[onenote]

16. I wish that was true, but it's not.

It's all about turnout.

In 2012, a presidential election year, over 3.8 million votes were cast in Virginia and Tim Kaine handily won a Senate seat by nearly 6% percent. A year later, in an off year election for governor, turnout was below 2.2 million votes and Terry McAuliffe defeated an unpopular repub by 56,000 votes (2.5%). Fast forward another year to 2014 -- Mark Warner, a popular former governor and incumbent Senator barely squeaks by Ed Gillespie -- who previously had not held office and was largely unknown in the state when he started his campaign -- by 17,700 votes out of 2.2 million cast -- less than 1 percent -- a shift of 9000 votes would have given Gillespie the win.

If there hadn't been a Libertarian candidate in the race pulling thousands of votes away from Gillespie, he'd be a US Senator now. Democrats will never win a statewide election in Virginia by 10 points let alone 20. Winning by 5 is tough. If the repubs splinter, we have a shot. If they hang together, we're screwed.

So long as the Breitbart/Trump/Corey Smith voters in Virginia are willing to hold their nose and vote for Gillespie, he has a shot at winning because portions of the Democratic constituency have a tendency to sit out off year elections.