With the Hurricane not hitting Houston directly, I doubt too many mayors would have said to evacuate

[Quixote1818]

Last edited Sun Aug 27, 2017, 08:56 PM - Edit history (1)

First of all Harvey missed Houston by 220 miles. That would have been like evacuating Pensacola, Florida when Katrina was headed toward New Orleans. Mayors are not trained in weather forecasting, urban geography, 100 year floods and how they impact runoff etc. Now had NOAA had an expert leader in place, he / she might have been able to advise the Houston Mayor on evacuations. Hard to know for sure? Trump however hasn't filled that position yet.

Snip: Trump's pick for FEMA administrator was confirmed in June, but officials at NOAA are still waiting for Trump to nominate someone to lead the key weather monitoring agency. The post remains vacant -- and without a Trump nominee -- alongside dozens of other deputy, under and assistant secretary positions in the Trump administration that require Senate confirmation.
And while Trump nominated two deputy directors for FEMA, they have yet to be confirmed into their positions.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/25/politics/donald-trump-hurricane-harvey-natural-disaster-response-test/index.html

[BigmanPigman]

1. It is Obama's fault naturally.

This country is in small but dangerous hands. We won't make it to 2020.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. I don't see how a city the size of Houston could have been evacuated

under the present circumstances. Where would they go? What if they couldn't get gas? Many people would have been stuck in their cars - and some of those would have ended up under water. Unless they had more than about two days (which is about when they learned how much rain there might be) it probably couldn't have been done safely.

[hlthe2b]

3. Maybe, but Katrina was not a direct hit on New Orleans and only a Cat 1 or 2 when it passed.

When Katrina passed east of New Orleans (the hurricane was not a direct hit), the storm was likely a Category 1 or a Category 2. Check the final report by the National Hurricane Center for verification. Yet 80 percent of the city was flooded, and the city wasn’t “unwatered”—to use Army Corps of Engineers terminology—for up to six weeks.

I'm not saying Houston mayor should have evacuated... just that whether or not the hurricane was predicted to be a direct hit was probably not the best defense for NOT doing so, given the amount of flooding predicted even days earlier.

[Quixote1818]

7. Katrina was a Cat 3, almost 4 when it hit NO and it was about as direct a hit as it could be

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Cat 3 http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/12/21/katrina/


Harvey missed Houston by 220 miles! https://www.google.com/search?q=corpus+christi+to+houston+miles&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwijxJq8wfjVAhUKilQKHSsNDR8Q_AUICSgA&biw=1304&bih=702&dpr=1

[Phoenix61]

10. New Orleans made it through Katrina fine

The levees broke and led to massive flooding. That's why the ICB was closed.

[hlthe2b]

12. Damage from loss of the levis and storm surge. Cat 3 or 4 when hit coast

not over NOLA. That is one of the most common misconceptions for the Katrina disaster.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/08/hurricane-katrina-anniversay-201008

New Orleans resident—and first-time documentarian—Harry Shearer explodes five uncommonly stubborn misconceptions.

[Igel]

9. Storm surge.

Katrina had one that hit NOLA; Harvey's hit CC and Rockport. It's also worth pointing out that NOLA is partially below sea level. Knock out a levee and you get at least one ward flooded in the absence of any other complication.

I don't put the blame on Abbot--he doesn't have the authority to issue the evacuation order unless he seized power and decided to overrule the law (some want him to have done that, but then we'd have a field day on his overreach). It's not on Trump; it requires extreme conditions to federalize something that the locals have authority over. We had that dance with Katrina, even though a lot of people were glued to their tv while the dance was taking place.

I don't see a reasonable reason to blame Turner other than "something bad happened, somebody should have done something." Screw that: Bad things happen and in many cases nothing could be down that didn't require prescience, omniscience, or godlike powers. Turner's decision was reasonable; I think it was the best choice, but in any event it's reasonable. That means it's defensible. Note that I live in Houston, and while I'm not flooded (after 21 inches of rain) I have a close colleague who *is* flooded and when school resumes in a bit more than a week I'll have a lot of students who'll have been flooded. Don't have a clue how that's going to go.

At some point attacking the other side when trying to defend something that's completely defensible says that logic and rationality aren't important. Even wrong decisions should be acknowledged as simple mistakes, not catastrophic errors in judgment. Turner's human. He should be treated as human, not either all-wise, good, and perfect in all his ways or all-idiot, evil, and turning to crap everything he touches.

Even Abbot sees the total non-point in this kind of Monday morning quarterbacking. Any (R) that lays into Turner, point him to Abbot in a fallacious appeal to authority that many find appealing.

(I'd continue to point out that a lot of the worst flooding here is in non-evacuation zones while a lot of the areas that would have been evacuated are *not* flooded. None of my students or colleagues are within 10 miles of an evacuation zone. This is a different kind of beast, and the evacuation plans are based on heavy rain + storm surge. Take away the storm-surge part and the plans become pretty lame. So "direct hit" isn't the best defense, but "no storm surge" certainly makes any decision to evacuate problematic. Any evacuation should have had as its basis not the standard hurricane evacuation map but maps yet to be drawn up based on the floods over the last couple of years that resulted primarily from simple heavy rains.)

[avebury]

4. The hurricane did not have to score a direct hit

on Houston to create a dire threat. Houston has bad flooding issues. You cannot put the full blame on the Houston mayor but spread it out to Trump, Abbott and on down.

We all know that if Obama was still President he and his people would have been very hands on with making every effort to make sure that Texas had what could be provided to make as many people safe as possible. Obama would not have relied only upon the National Guard but would have had the military there assisting with rescue efforts. With Trump it is crickets. He wants to take FEMA money for his wall. He spends his time pardoning a crminial, going after transgener people in the military, whining about his wall and griping about Mexicans. He is totally incompetent to be President.

[iamateacher]

5. If Houston had evacuated

There would have been hundreds of cars on the highways last night. Highways that were flooded within 6 hours.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029522748

[drray23]

13. the point is you dont evacuate the day before.

you do it 2 to 3 days before. They had the forecast that long in advance and had they reversed the highway traffic many ppls could have gotten out.

[TexasBushwhacker]

6. We didn't evacuate for Ike and it hit much closer n/t

[Blue_Roses]

11. I was in Galveston a few weeks before Ike

and I couldn't believe the devastation it caused. It was so sad.

[Cattledog]

8. Houston floods all the time...

and it will get worse. There has been a 25% increase in concrete covered surfaces in the past 10 years replacing wetlands and natural
waterflow areas..

[rusty fender]

14. Damned if you do, damned if you don't