A long campaign helped us in 2008. Would hurt Republicans in 2012.

[cthulu2016]

The long 2008 campaign made Barack Obama familiar, liked and seen as being of stature, since he won against a formidable opponant in a long-running reality show. By the time it was over people had sized him up as a credible, calm and intelligent person. And the primary campaign ended harmoniously at the convention. People like a happy ending.

And, importantly, Obama and Hillary had the same positions. They sometimes invented disagreements but neither was really moved ideologically. It was ultimately a personality-driven contest.

A long Republican race would harm them deeply because it would be an ideological competition.

If Mitt wins Iowa and comes in at least second in South Carolina he will clamp his mouth shut and ride to the nomination. There will be video clips of him saying disturbing RW things but the public will not come to know him in those terms. On the national reality show most people will meet him as a slippery but affable man running hard to the middle.

If the primaries are prolonged, however, then when people start to pay attention they will see a robotic weirdo willing to say anything it takes to appear more crazy than whichever teabag type he's running against.

So I am rooting hard against Mitt in Iowa. (Though he may well win it.)

[gkhouston]

1. Mitt's been campaigning for months now, and still hasn't cracked 30% in his own party.

The man has all the appeal of leftovers that got pushed to the back of the fridge three weeks ago. Something indefinable about his posture and speech say, "born in the 1% and haven't got a clue about the 99%" and I believe a lot of people sense this.

[tabatha]

2. The guy is a snake.

I just cannot imagine him dealing with foreign heads with any sort of competence.

He has an awful way of talking, and laughs when he does not know what to say.

[cthulu2016]

3. The giggling like a child is off-putting