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Fri May 26, 2017, 08:45 PM

2018/2020 US Senate Election

2020 is the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
In 2018, Democrats pick up AZ (Flake-R loses in the Republican primary to Ward-R, Ward-R loses in the general to Abboud-D or Freise-D) and NV (Heller-R loses in the general to Marshall-D or Titus-D). Democrats will come up short in TX (Cruz-R defeats O'Rourke-D by a single digit margin.) Democratic incumbents in IN (Donnelly-D),MO (McCaskill-D),and ND (Heitkamp-D) have a 50 percent chance of getting re-elected. Democratic incumbents in FL (Nelson-D),MT (Tester-D),OH (Brown-D),and WV (Manchin-D) are favored to win re-election. Democrats will end up with between 46 to 50 seats in 2019 depending on what happens in AZ,IN,MO,and ND.
In 2020, the most vulnerable Democratic US Senators are Shaheen (NH) and Warner (VA). Both are likely favored to win re-election in 2020 by a wider margin than in 2014. Democrats are likely to pick up CO (Hickenlooper-D or Polis-D defeats Gardner-D), NC (Stein-D defeats Tillis-R), MT (Bullock-D or Schweitzer-D defeat Daines-R) and ME (if Collins-R retires) and TX (if Cornyn-R retires and Castro-D or O'Rourke-D).

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Reply 2018/2020 US Senate Election (Original post)
nkpolitics1212 May 2017 OP
Les Cowbell May 2017 #1
nkpolitics1212 May 2017 #2

Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Fri May 26, 2017, 08:58 PM

1. Good condensed take on it ... but what if ..

 

The Dems get to 50 in 2018 and Susan Collins is talked into switching in order to save the republic.

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Response to Les Cowbell (Reply #1)

Fri May 26, 2017, 09:57 PM

2. Susan Collins is more likely to become an Independent ie Jim Jeffords in 2001 than become a Democrat

like Arlen Specter in 2009. The question about Collins is does she caucus with the Democrats like her home state collegue Angus King or Former collegue Joe Lieberman. What does Schumer and King have to offer Collins to get her to join the Democratic Caucus?
Does Collins keep her position as chair of the US Senate Aging Committee?

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