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Thu Mar 16, 2017, 10:45 AM

 

Most people do not realize how massive cuts to the Federal workforce will ultimately affect them.

Too many ways to go in depth here. Many people do not realize how many Federal workforce live among them, support their businesses and community programs. Spending by Fed employees is a HUGE chunk of at least 15 state's economies. VA, MD, DE, NC, CO, CA, IL, MT, MA, NY, PA, NM, TN, GA, NV.

Industries affected: Housing and all related industries, Office furniture and supplies, auto, airline (Fed travel is usually the first hit) anything related to small businesses in communities where there are large populations of Fed workers.

It never works, never has worked before but suspect that only those families well invested in stocks and inherited wealth will not care or be affected.

Have at it Trumpsters!

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Reply Most people do not realize how massive cuts to the Federal workforce will ultimately affect them. (Original post)
nikibatts Mar 2017 OP
LonePirate Mar 2017 #1
Cosmocat Mar 2017 #2
KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #4
Cosmocat Mar 2017 #8
KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #9
Cosmocat Mar 2017 #10
KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #11
Cosmocat Mar 2017 #12
KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #14
nikibatts Mar 2017 #15
KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #16
Cosmocat Mar 2017 #17
beachbum bob Mar 2017 #3
wishstar Mar 2017 #5
MineralMan Mar 2017 #6
Historic NY Mar 2017 #7
alarimer Mar 2017 #13

Response to nikibatts (Original post)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 10:54 AM

1. He and his supporters have such narrow, simplistic and uninformed views about everything.

They understand almost nothing about our complex economy, modern society, our Constitution and pretty much any other topic. They have no idea how dangerous and damaging their ignorance is and worse yet, they do not care.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 11:02 AM

2. Conservatism is like a chinese finger trap

the more they get hit with reality, facts, reason, the more they constrict into hard right thinking.

3 decades of right wing media complex brainwashing them, they fully believe their own bullshit.

There really is no way to talk them back.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 11:06 AM

4. I predict 10% unemployment by Dec. 31 and then an economic

 

death spiral to commence in earnest, maybe 20% unemployment by Nov. '18.

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Response to KingCharlemagne (Reply #4)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 11:35 AM

8. IDK

I think the market is on a serious sugar high, Trump gives a lot of these types of people wood, and is reaching that point the tech bubble of the 90s reached.

Not sure how much a serious readjustment would effect employment.

But, the idiot is playing with a LOT of fire - his heavy handed deportation targeting our neighbors to the south, that is dangerous in terms of the labor market for agriculture.

His dicking around with China, or any other major economy country, he is so simple minded, we are in serious trouble if they decided to give us a poke, he won't see it coming and they will NOT react well to it.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 12:15 PM

9. Consumer spending (1/3 the domestic economy) rose only 0.1% last month and

 

now the Fed is raising interest rates. Add in Trump's tinkering with the general macroeconomic equation and a general slow down is all but inevitable. Republicans do not believe in the general macroeconomic equation, preferring widely discredited monetarist theories or even more crackpot theories, like goosing aggregate supply.

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Response to KingCharlemagne (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 12:59 PM

10. Interesting

would it not be normal to have consumer spending slow down in February?

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #10)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 01:45 PM

11. There may be some cyclical pattern to spending, for sure. But what we also know

 

is that when you add a slowdown in spending (cyclically normal or otherwise) to increases in interest rates (via the Fred) and cuts in government spending (the 'G' in the general macroeconomic equation), you will see a decrease in GDP (or a slowing in its rate of growth). Since the Republicans believe the general macroeconomic equation is false, they do not peg their politics around it. They will wait until unemployment reaches 25% or more -- IOW, a general economic collapse -- before even considering action to increase spending.

I should note that, reprehensible though they are, Trump proposals like hiring an additional 10,000 CBP officers and building a wall along the border would serve to maintain the 'G' in the general macroeconomic equation, thereby partially or wholly compensating for spending cuts elsewhere (like the Meals on Wheels program or NEA funding).

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Response to KingCharlemagne (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 01:53 PM

12. I was going to note that!

I have been telling people for months now, and they just roll their eyes, the "wall" is a vanity based economic sugar boost to deficit spend to pay for building it, only to serve no functional purpose once it is up.

45 is a moron, but he knows that about it, IMO, borrowing to pour that money into the economy so he can point the boost.

Same with the "infrastructure" scam he wants to tee up.

BTW - do you reply back with the "formula" you are referring to?

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #12)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 02:15 PM

14. Ah, the general macroeconoic equation (sometimes referred to as the

 

"Keynesian equation":

GDP = C + G + I + (Ex-Im)

where GDP = Gross Domestic Product
C = Consumption
G = Government spending
I = Investment (by businesses)
Ex = Export
Im = Imports

So, going back to earlier posts, growth in 'C' is slowing in February and Trump is proposing to cut 'G' (but maybe expand it in other places). If C and G both do decline, GDP must also decline, unless "I" increases (possible, but with increasing interest rates less likely) or we Export more and Import less (hard to envision given the currently strong dollar which makes our exports relatively more expensive and makes imports less expensive). Recipe or formula for a recession or, given Republican douchery, even depression.

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Response to KingCharlemagne (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 02:33 PM

15. I increasing use of robots is not going to help much. Usually I results in increases in

 

C and G. Those equation parts should be arranged in a circle.

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Response to nikibatts (Reply #15)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 02:38 PM

16. An increase in I can have the secondary effect of incresing C, but not

 

necessarily. If the increase in I results in additional hiring and payroll, then there may well be an increase in C. But if the increase in I is only to improve productivity, i.e., your robotic workforce, then C will either stay the same or decline (since a larger amount of goods from the increase in I is being pushed at a smaller C, in the form of fewer workers-consumers).

C and I are best thought of as independent variables, not dependent variables, in my opinion.

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Response to KingCharlemagne (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 03:28 PM

17. Excellent

thanks, good stuff!

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Response to nikibatts (Original post)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 11:05 AM

3. all trump/conservative cuts will more than likely adverse affect trump voters and supporters

 

than not.....we have 2018 to take back our country

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Response to nikibatts (Original post)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 11:07 AM

5. Also the helpful govt services they provide that will be curtailed or eliminated

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Response to nikibatts (Original post)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 11:08 AM

6. Trump and Those Who Control Him Simply DO NOT CARE! nt

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Response to nikibatts (Original post)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 11:11 AM

7. I experienced it with the IRS some years back not enough people to help..

especially at tax time.

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Response to nikibatts (Original post)

Thu Mar 16, 2017, 02:00 PM

13. And many more state agencies and universities are dependent on grants.

Where I work, federal grants support a lot of the work we do. My job may not directly be affected but hundreds of others will.

We are talking about potentially hundreds of thousands of job losses at the state level alone. That's money not going into buying stuff, so add more losses on top of that.

And of course, lack of scientific progress do to the loss of those grants will be incalculable. No drug development (industry does not do much of this, but rides on academic research), no progress in almost any STEM field.

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