A Pickup for Housing in 2012? (updated)

[ProSense]

Last edited Thu Dec 29, 2011, 01:47 PM - Edit history (1)

A Pickup for Housing in 2012?

Residential investment made a small positive contribution to GDP in 2011, for the first time since 2005. And construction employment turned slightly positive in 2011.

Now the question is what will happen in 2012? I think some pickup is likely, but I'm not as optimistic as some other people ...

- more -

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/pickup-for-housing-in-2012.html

Updated to add:

Pending home sales rise to 1.5 year high

(Reuters) - Pending sales of existing homes surged to a 1-1/2 year high in November, an industry group said on Thursday, offering more signs of a tentative recovery in the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in November, increased 7.3 percent to 100.1 -- the highest level since April 2010.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected pending sales to rise only 2 percent. Pending sales lead existing home sales by a month or two.

Recent data on home sales and construction have been fairly upbeat, suggesting an improvement in the sector, but prices continue to trend lower.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/29/us-usa-economy-housing-idUSTRE7BS0M220111229

[FreakinDJ]

1. With a 200,000 backlog of foreclosed homes to sell and banks not making loans

not likely

[ProSense]

2. To

"With a 200,000 backlog of foreclosed homes to sell and banks not making loans"

...what do you attribute the increase in residential investment?

There is a lot to sell off, but there is some optimism. Calculated Risk has a lot of good information.

HousingTracker reported that the December listings - for the 54 metro areas - declined 17.6% from the same month last year. For the final week in December, inventory is down 18.4% from a year ago.

This is just inventory listed for sale, sometimes referred to as "visible inventory". There is also a large "shadow inventory" that is currently not on the market, but is expected to be listed in the next few years. Shadow inventory could include bank owned properties (REO: Real Estate Owned), properties in the foreclosure process, other properties with delinquent mortgages (both serious delinquencies of over 90+ days, and less serious), condos that were converted to apartments (and will be converted back), investor owned rental properties, and homeowners "waiting for a better market", and a few other categories - as long as the properties are not currently listed for sale. Some of this "shadow inventory" will be forced on the market, such as completed foreclosures, but most of these sellers will probably wait for a "better market".

However listed inventory has clearly declined in many areas. And it is the listed months-of-supply combined with the number of distressed sales that mostly impacts prices. (note: there are still 7 months of supply because both sales and inventory have declined).

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/existing-home-inventory-declines-18.html

[SixthSense]

3. No

the housing market can't be cleared until the fraud is washed out of the system, and we've barely begun even recognizing the situation, forget about cleaning it up

[GreenPartyVoter]

4. If you mean, "Will more people be living in pickup trucks and other vehicles" then I would say it

seems likely.

[StandingInLeftField]

5. I concur.

http://consumerist.com/2007/02/debt-drives-student-to-live-in-pick-up-truck.html

[ProSense]

6. No. n/t