Thu Oct 20, 2016, 11:52 AM

Let's talk about the Senate

There are 3 probable D pickups in the Senate:

IL
WI
IN

Of these 3, IN is the most likely to stay red, then WI, and then IL.

Then there are 3 toss up states, in no particular order.

PA
NH
NV

Since NV is blue, and assuming Kaine wins VP and a Democrat is appointed to replace him, the Democrats must win 2 of these 3 seats to take back the Senate, assuming no other flips.

After this, in no particular order these seats are competitive but lean GOP currently

FL
NC
MO
OH
AZ

Thoughts?

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4 replies	Author	Time	Post
Let's talk about the Senate (Original post)	Peaches999	Oct 2016	OP
Ohio is over. Portman (R-OH) goes back to DC. Strickland goes back to lobbying.	CincyDem	Oct 2016	#1
2018 is by far my biggest fear, especially if we don't make big gains this go round	Grey Lemercier	Oct 2016	#3
IL, WI, IN are for sure Dem, FL, OH, and AZ likely Rep	Grey Lemercier	Oct 2016	#2
Clinton landslide of proportion we are looking at	JCMach1	Oct 2016	#4

Response to Peaches999 (Original post)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 11:57 AM

CincyDem (5,460 posts)

1. Ohio is over. Portman (R-OH) goes back to DC. Strickland goes back to lobbying.

At some point the state dem party will get the message that reaching for these old farts (i.e. my age) with a lot of perceived baggage (deserved or not) is NOT a winning strategy. I'm amazed that even Sherrod Brown has been invisible in his support for Strickland.

I continue to shake my head in wonderment that the same electorate gives us both Portman and Brown. Of course Brown is such a strong candidate and personality that he might just be carrying his elections in spite of the state dem party rather than because of it.

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Response to CincyDem (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 12:30 PM

Grey Lemercier (1,429 posts)

3. 2018 is by far my biggest fear, especially if we don't make big gains this go round

we will have 10 or 11 very hard races, all defending seats, all in an off year, 3rd consecutive term of Dem POTUS

FL Bill Nelson

IN Joe Donnelly

MI Debbie Stabenow

MO Claire McCaskill

MT Jon Tester

ND Heidi Heitkamp

NJ Bob Menendez (due to criminal case)

PA Bob Casey

VA Tim Kaine (will be another Dem, due to VP)

WI Tammy Baldwin

WV Joe Manchin

only main Rethug seat we can realistically flip is

NV Dean Heller

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Response to Peaches999 (Original post)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 12:18 PM

Grey Lemercier (1,429 posts)

2. IL, WI, IN are for sure Dem, FL, OH, and AZ likely Rep

NV is probably Dem, although the latest polls are not so good
NC probably Rep (Burr is up 3 to 8 points in latest polls, Ross is running a bad campaign lately)

2 weeks ago I would have said PA, NH, and MO are going to go Dem

NH is now a dead heat with momentum for Hassan

Toomey is pulling a away a wee bit in PA

MO is is impossible to call, although slightest edge in momentum to Kander

If the Rethugs sweep those last 3, and the other 8 go the way I say, they maintain control 51 to 49, 52 to 48 if we lose NV

I think we take NH and MO

PA, total coin toss due to ticket splitting

gun to my head, I say Dems 51, Rethugs 49

GOTV GOTV GOTV!

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Response to Peaches999 (Original post)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 12:37 PM

JCMach1 (27,399 posts)

4. Clinton landslide of proportion we are looking at

Means control of Senate and probably the House. The Republican apathy (which I am seeing in TX) is very real.

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