Those of you who know me know that I don't make shit up.

[PCIntern]

Today I had a very interesting patient who told me some very good news:

This guy is a sports statistician: people in professional sports pay him ungodly sums to figure out various propositions and whether they would benefit the team or not. The film Moneyball was based on some of the fundamental premises under which these guys work

But guess what he does in his "spare time"? He handicaps elections based upon aspects of polls which we, the public, never get to see, such as the sampling and the rationale for such sampling. He told me in no uncertain terms that any state in which Trump is leading by four points or fewer, he will lose and that the professionals in the business are expecting a win by Mrs. Clinton of at LEAST the proportion of the 2008 victory by President Obama if not greater.

Further, he agreed that the statement made by Chuck Todd was correct: that the polls which showed the race tightening utilized fallacious methodology. Gross undersampling of Democrats for example.

This is good news if true. I have no reason to doubt his professional judgement.

[Brother Buzz]

1. So, he's saying all poll's margin of error will default to the Clinton's camp?

[PCIntern]

5. No...not quite...

he said that there is deliberate error to close the perceived gap and that it's sort of like the runway settings in Die Hard 2...the pilot thinks he's coming in to a given altitude and then the runway is 500 feet shallower than he thinks it is. BOOM!

That may be what happened to Romney four years ago. why he thought he was gonna win.

[Major Nikon]

21. That aspect of the movie was total Hollywood nonsense

It just doesn't work that way. The same is true for the polling. Romney's internal polling was shit because his pollster was shit, but the public polling was very good. Nate Silver predicted Obama would win with 313, and the actual result was 332. The only real unknown was Florida, which Obama won by a very small margin.

[Kablooie]

23. That's right, I remember. The conservatives were all completly shocked when Romney lost.

Their polls were all skewed to increase Republican votes but they didn't acknowlege it.

It's good to hear they didn't learn anything back then and may be making all the same mistakes again.

[Maraya1969]

59. I think that we will always have close elections now the media makes so much money

off of keeping so many glued to the TV and internet like we are watching a tight horse race.

If they showed the 70/30 split that 538 shows I think people would lose interest and they would lose viewers.

[trof]

60. Bingo!

It's ALL about the money now.
ALL.

[misterhighwasted]

7. Wow..in that case we may indeed see a landslide victory for President and

a few extra surprises for the Senate & House.

The strategic method of the Clinton campaign has been skill & genius from the first day. Thank you John Podesta & team.

The difficulty level of this election for team Hilary was always off the charts & it has been the meticulous attention to every single move made and word spoken that carried her beyond all obstacles put before her on this path to the WhiteHouse.

Wow..

[MADem]

2. I get a feeling that guy knows what he is talking about... nt

[OnDoutside]

3. Funnily enough I was thinking about just that sort of thing today. Provided there isn't some massive

October surprise against Hillary, you'd have to think the Clinton GOTV effort vs Republican apathy/distaste will add an extra bounce onto the final result. Every percent counts.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

4. A big, fat K&R!

[Renew Deal]

6. If that's the case she probably gets AZ, GA, and maybe SC, TX, UT

I wouldn't count on those last 4

[former9thward]

45. McCain's lead in AZ will pull Trump along for the ride.

He is 19 points ahead of his opponent.

[Laffy Kat]

8. Earlier OP (volaris) covered exactly what you're talking about:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028208415

[malaise]

16. LOL

I was just going to link that

[Laffy Kat]

18. Great minds and all...

[spanone]

9. K&R...

[Hekate]

10. You just made my day! Thanks for passing this along, PCI!

[Cakes488]

11. I'm thinking landslide victory too because I still believe most Americans reject Trashbag Trump

[Sophiegirl]

12. It's called Sabermetrics

Sabermetrics is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research. It was coined by Bill James, who is one of its pioneers and is often considered its most prominent advocate and public face.

Not that I'm a baseball nerd or anything.

[pkdu]

37. Go Cubs!..........and apologies

for the gratuitous thread hijack.

[a kennedy]

41. Now just wait a goll dang minute.......baseball stats??? How do these stats work for football???

AND CAN THE PACKERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL with these stats???

[Wounded Bear]

42. They'll have to go through Seattle.....

[a kennedy]

43. I'm hoping for Seattle....and NOT the Vikings......

I dispise the Vikings.....

[smirkymonkey]

13. K&R

[gademocrat7]

14. Thanks for the good news, PC

[ffr]

15. And some people will now show up to vote HRC, simply to say they voted for the winner.

People like to side with winners, whether that's a team or not. And conversely, conservatives may not turn out because they don't want to feel like a loser supporting another loser.

Probably why Donald has to build his own hype saying he's a winner, when nobody else is saying it.

[Cakes488]

19. And there will be some who vote sheerly to be part of history when we elect the FIRST WOMAN!!

[GulfCoast66]

28. Like this

Middle aged white guy!!! Can't wait.

[calimary]

32. There is that, too.

We've already seen that in Barack Obama's success. All things being equal, the fact that you were helping to make HISTORY - and some COLOSSAL history at that - I bet, tipped the scales for him with some voters. And yeah, for those who like to think ahead a little, as Hillary sometimes refers to thinking about grandchildren, hers and others', it might not be a big leap to think of one's own grandchildren and how one can remember voting for the first woman President. As well as those many of us who will be telling our grandchildren how we participated in making history with Barack Obama's election(s).

There are lots of random things that can do it. That is, wind up being THE little extra that tips someone over, to choose one over the other, in a case like this. Those random things can be sensible and entirely not sensible. It can literally be ANYTHING. When I was just starting to pay attention, in late high school/early college, I can remember hearing someone actually say they voted against some candidate because they didn't like his eyebrows. I kid you not.

[calimary]

25. Yep. There is that.

[Hamlette]

17. That gives us Arizona!

plus Iowa, NC, FL Ohio and everything else. But Az? That would be great.

[robertpaulsen]

39. Perhaps even Georgia.

RCP has them currently at 4.8 Trump. And that's with the last poll conducted before the first debate.

[Hamlette]

54. can you imagine?

I don't want to get my hopes up, but can you fricking imagine if Hillary won Georgia? Yippie.

[world wide wally]

20. I will also bet there are more than a few people who intend to vote for Trump, but when they are

about to cast their ballot, they will suddenly realize how apocalyptic that could be and change their vote to Hillary.

[LuckyLib]

27. As well as huge numbers of women who

have witnessed the men around them loving the Trumpster, but who, when they go into the voting booth, say "Uh, no. I'm voting for the sane person here."

[TeamPooka]

22. A perfect prescription doc. Thank you! Now we need to GOTV!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. Lots of poll samplings have been like +4 D, a few +8 or even +10.

Not sure if +8 / +10 is realistic.

For comparison, not because they have much insight at all, but the FReaks think that Republicans are being grossly under sampled. They say that there is an enthusiasm gap for Hillary: many Republicans would "crawl through broken glass" to vote for tRump; his rallies get many more people than Hillary's; there are more lawn signs for tRump; and so on and so forth. I bought a pound of rock salt to go with their ravings, but the under/over sampling issue is thought provoking.

[OnDoutside]

29. I'm not sure I buy that , Bernardo, when one considers

The numbers of mainstream Republicans who are voting or endorsing Hillary. Of course you will get an amount who would walk on glass for Trump., However many are turned off by his antics.

[GopherGal]

48. Supreme Court

I think there are also repugs who would crawl through broken glass to vote for the Devil himself if they thought he would appoint Supreme Court justices who'd overturn Roe v Wade. Not sure how big that single-issue vote is, though.

Dems and younger people do have a poor record for getting out to vote, so there is some basis behind the "unskewing" they like to do on that side of the fence.

[VMA131Marine]

26. Polls mean nothing...

if people don't get out and vote.

[wiggs]

30. Talking with some friends last night....I bet there are lots of folks who will answer a poll

differently than they will vote. I imagine lots of folks would like to send a message via a poll answer...that the establishment does not automatically get their votes, that they need to pay attention to the need to change, that they are considering voting for an insane person or third party just to make a point...BUT THEY WON'T ACTUALLY vote that way because: 1) voting is not sending a message the way a poll does 2) even if they want change, most people know that Trump is neither the right kind of person nor are his ideas worthy.

Polls are a way people can feel some satisfaction without risking disaster and without really endorsing a particularly heinous outcome.

[mountain grammy]

31. Every day, my husband looks at me and says

Americans are not that bad. Trump will lose big. Every day.

[cindyperry]

33. Fivethirtyeight

And realclearpolitics have her winning she is gonna win go vote

[Ligyron]

34. It's time to give a woman a chance.

What the Hell do you have to lose? Eh, Trump?

(posted with apologies to AA's).

[alcibiades_mystery]

35. There was never any tightening...Trump has been losing from go

It's all a show to make the political junkies' heart race. In terms of population on the ground, it's a big ship. It doesn't turn around on a dime or a debate.

[shadowmayor]

36. It ain't just the polls

The fawning corporate media selects what they decide to report. Polls that show Hillary in a run-away don't fit their horse-race agenda. This election has essentially been over for months. As for polls, during the repuke primary I told every poll I could that I was voting for that idiot Dr. Brain Carson. Why? Because I really wanted people to think he was a substantial candidate when I didn't think he should manage a popsicle stand.

[PCIntern]

38. The bit about Carson is Funny.

I agree with you 100%

[Egnever]

55. This election has been over for months

Been trying to tell people here that forever but pulling your hair out is apparently much more fun.

The numbers have barely moved the whole election cycle and Hillary has always been winning. Not to mention Donald is killing himself everywhere the republicans needed to prop up in order to win.

There is just no plausible path to victory for him or any republican for that matter hasn't been since the last election Trump is only making it worse for them.

[creoledna]

40. The ever secretive "internals"

I have thought for almost a year that:
The R knew it was going to lose:
1) Women
2) Low voter turnout for R.
The wild card here is Trump.
The other wild card is the 3rd party.

Trump will not increase the R turnout.
Protest voters will vote HRC if they hate Trump.
protest voters will stay home if they hate both (who is going to go to that trouble?)
Women will out perform, and

HRC will win with a six point margin.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

44. Isn't this Nate Silver's 538 model? Same tools I believe. N/T

[Spitfire of ATJ]

46. The polls are skewed to favor Republicans because of a TERROR that the hippies are taking over.

[paleotn]

47. To me, Trumpkin's support seems a mile wide...

....but is in reality less than a foot deep. It's mostly flash, bluster and media inspired horse race. But when the votes are actually counted, I feel Clinton wins going away. Anecdotally, I know of several Republicans planning to sit this one out. The real question is, will that be enough to swing the Senate and maybe even the House. Bottom line is we've got to turn out in huge numbers and crush this clown.

[bucolic_frolic]

49. Hillary has broad progressive themes that are resonating

Trump has been damaged by his misogyny

Since he's not offering anything positive to people to improve their
lives, it is difficult for me to see how he will change that dynamic

He's used fear, but that's tired at this point, and only relevant to about
39% of the population. You need a broad overarching objective that
people want to attract voters. Make America Great Again - with fear?
With tax cuts for billionaires? With roiling national security?

Hillary by contrast has considerable upside if she can sell her platform
and show we will be strong, economically secure and fair, and work to
solve problems. All is moving in the right direction but if we're ever going
to do this, October is the time for Democrats to throttle up

[hamsterjill]

50. Indeed good news. But that doesn't mean any of us can stay home on election

Day.

Vote!!!

[Dawson Leery]

51. SC/AZ are going to HRC under this scenario.

[uponit7771]

52. +1, THOSE POLLS USED THE 2004 LV MODEL !!!! As if there was no critical mass of PoC in 2006!!!

[gwheezie]

53. My totally unscientific observation

3 people I know who were never Hillary voters as well as never trump voters are going to vote for Hillary, they were hoping to be able to vote for a 3rd party but now are committed to Hillary. They don't like it but the thought of president trump is horrifying. These are people who want to change the world not blow it up, they aren't that angry. The antics of the bloated orange blowfish has finally pushed them over the edge.

[denbot]

56. Yeah, you been around here for a minute or so..

I consider you to have the same credibility as someone like babylonsister, which is to say the gold standard DU wise.

Good to hear.

[Retired George]

57. Nate Silver is a patient of yours???

Just kidding. Rec.

[WiffenPoof]

58. It isn't enough to just beat Trump...

Trump and his ilk need to be pummeled into dust.