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Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:05 AM

Trump's base is NOT poor whites.

I just heard an interesting story on NPR's Morning Edition this morning saying that while Trump's base IS blue collar it isn't low income as is popularly claimed, it is primarily better paid blue collar workers without a college education with deep anxieties about outsourcing and "immigrants taking their jobs" as well as cultural resentments against "pointy-headed liberal" college-educated people.

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Response to Odin2005 (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:15 AM

1. That makes sense, but I think that at least part of his base is comprised of

 

white people in real poverty- in parts of Appalacia and across the so-called Rust Belt.

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Response to cali (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:57 AM

4. We've been driving through parts of the

MidAtlantic and south on vacation. The areas we see the most vocal Trump signs,stickers, etc seem to be areas where some homes are either mobile homes, those with not much more than run down homes or shacks, or better looking mid-range homes in those same areas. One thing in common, about a church for every mile or two.

One pleasant surprise in Charleston, SC was a billboard from a realty company. It had both Trump and Hillary's picture on it and said "Moving to Canada? Let us help!".

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Response to Odin2005 (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:20 AM

2. Salon article on broad data:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512372226

The Trump vote: New data reveals hints as to who is most likely to pull the lever for Trump

SALON

MONDAY, AUG 15, 2016
Simon Maloy

Snip

... Gallup, however, just released an analysis of more than 87,000 poll respondents contacted over the last year who offered a positive or negative impression of Donald Trump, and it offers some surprising and clarifying insights into which types of voters are more likely to gravitate toward his campaign.

The long-held assumption that Trump’s campaign is powered by poorer, working-class whites who’ve felt the negative economic impacts of trade, immigration and globalization is, according to Gallup’s data, incomplete at best. Trump’s supporters generally have less education and are more likely to be blue-collar, but “the standard economic measures of income and employment status show that, if anything, more affluent Americans favor Trump, even among white non-Hispanics,” the analysis reads. “Surprisingly, there appears to be no link whatsoever between exposure to trade competition and support for nationalist policies in America, as embodied by the Trump campaign.”

Snip

The manufacturing angle to this is particularly interesting, as Gallup found that the only candidate who is viewed consistently positively in areas with higher concentrations of manufacturing jobs is… Hillary Clinton. And, contrary to the prevailing conventional wisdom about Trump’s supposed blue-collar appeal, “exposure to manufacturing tends to predict significantly lower Trump support.” That’s potentially a big problem for Trump, given that his campaign and its surrogates talk about these same voters as critical to their chances for victory.

That said, Trumpism is not completely divorced from economic stress. “People living in commuting zones with higher white middle-aged mortality rates are much more likely to view Trump favorably,” Gallup found. The analysis also noted people who live areas that have less “intergenerational mobility” also tend to have higher levels of support for Trump. Basically, if you’re in an area where white people are experiencing consistently poor health outcomes and younger generations are having less success at moving up the economic ladder, then you’re more likely to want to vote for Donald Trump.

Snip

In the thread, several of us discussed the sense of privilege some kids of upper middle class feel, and how that affects their inability to make the sacrifices necessary to make the grades, to advance to grad school, etc.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #2)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:24 AM

3. That point about people in manufacturing favoring Clinton is interesting.

I have personally observed that older (read Boomer) factory workers are VERY pro-Clinton (both Hillary and Bill), especially if they are unionized. My dad is one of those people.

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Response to hedda_foil (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 10:46 AM

8. Thank you. I forgot to copy that from the other reply. nt

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Response to Odin2005 (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 10:11 AM

6. Also where I live I see trump signs in republican suburbs . Have people forgotten who the republican

party is made up of? Recently saw an article that stated investors now favor trump over Clinton
Not by much , but they are not the impoverished stereotype that is portrayed
I have only seen trump signs in certain wealthy suburbs that have always voted heavy republican that I travel through
I am sure in rural areas it may be different, but plenty of trump voters to go around unfortunately
Oh and the better paid bcw, and the wealthy do come out to vote without much prompting, so it is a secure sector for republicans.

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Response to Odin2005 (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 10:20 AM

7. Also from the above Salon article regarding race...

Less surprising is the relationship Gallup discovered between Trumpism and race. Poll after poll has shown that Trump’s supporters are overwhelmingly white, and that he is extremely unpopular with pretty much every non-white demographic. What Gallup found is that one of the strongest indicators of Trump support is racial isolation: “Constant support for Trump is highly elevated in areas with few college graduates, far from the Mexican border, and in neighborhoods that stand out within the commuting zone for being white, segregated enclaves, with little exposure to blacks, Asians, and Hispanics.”

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Response to Odin2005 (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 10:46 AM

9. its white people undergoing racial panic at not being guaranteed a privileged spot

 

in society

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