Josh Marshall: Clinton Polling Lead "No Longer a Bounce"

[Hissyspit]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/no-longer-a-bounce

No Longer a Bounce
Josh MarshallAUGUST 8, 2016

The conventional wisdom is that you don't really know the impact of the conventions until everything settles out a week or two after the second convention. We're coming up on that threshold. And as you can see from the trend chart going back to July 1st, this is no longer just a bounce.



At the risk of stating the obvious, a bounce is something that goes up and then comes down, at least part of the way back down. But Clinton's trend line continues to rise.

Here's the key thing to keep in mind.

Historically, once the tumult of the conventions has settled, the polls tend to be fairly stable. There's sometimes a closing toward the end. Gore caught up with Bush at the end of the 2000 race. But again, people seem to make basic decisions during the conventions and they're usually hard to dislodge. That seems especially the case when the margin is substantial.

We're coming up on that period for Trump.

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[Laura PourMeADrink]

1. Heard someone say that the convention bounce lasts 2 to 3 weeks. So, holding

my breathe for this Thursday and the following Aug 18th (3 weeks from close of Dem convention). Of course, I think the whole Kahn thing really left some indelible marks - hopefully enough to outweigh the "new on message" Trump that started today...but been working so - not sure if it's still in effect since earlier today

[StevieM]

11. I think the bounce usually wears off by the Monday eleven days after the Convention ends.

At this point it is simply about where the race stands.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. so 8-12. Not too far off SM. Saying between 8-11 and 8-18 :)

[gratuitous]

2. Trump's aggregate numbers are consistently below 40%

Does anyone anywhere seriously think he's going to jump at least 10 points? I fear my window to monetize Trump supporter stupidity has closed. Nobody wants to bet $100 against my proposition that Trump will not be the next president of the United States. Even his most nincompoop partisans aren't willing to put any money where their mouth is.

[TeamPooka]

9. That does mean something. nt

[Cosmocat]

10. I have been saying

it looked like he had a ceiling well below 50%, except that brief two weeks or so when Comey jobbed Hillary and until the end of the R convention, he got into the 44% range, but other than that, he never has gotten too much above 42% ...

Something REALLY big has to happen to seriously alter the dynamics of the race ...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. Surely the next batch of Assange emails won't have one from Hillary

saying she killed someone.

[riversedge]

3. Love that blue upward trending line.

[riversedge]

4. K and R.

[MFM008]

5. There is a reason they say

You can tell where the Rac e is heading by Labor Day.
The margins may get closer but generally whoever is ahead by Labor Day stays ahead.

[Gothmog]

6. K&R

[Johnny2X2X]

7. RCP +7.4

Yup, +7.4 in 4 way, +7.2 head to head. The DNC ended 11 days ago, this is the new baseline.

[TeamPooka]

8. GOTV and humiliate this big Cheeto in Nov. nt