Clinton stretches lead over Trump to 14 points in national poll

Or . . . maybe not. Let's keep our heads, shall we?

and at the minimum we have to GOTV

So yes, I agree with you, we should keep our heads.

National Polls have too much variability at this stage

We still need to get out the vote!

We need to do everything we can in this election to win. I will not assume Trump can't win. I will not put a lot of faith in polls this early. I will not assume some seemingly inconsequential event can't turn the direction of the electorate. I will not assume a cataclysmic event can't turn the electorate. I will not assume the Republicans won't unify.

I know we hear this all the time, but this election matters a LOT.

Can you even imagine a President Trump?

Of course, besides hiring a few 3rd rate strategists to finally start working in battleground states (about 18 months later than most presidential candidates do) and using a teleprompter to give a rambling, garbled speech instead of just winging it, the "new Trump" is looking an awful lot like the old Trump. His campaign still doesn't have a rapid response team, still doesn't have ads, still doesn't have any money or fundraising apparatus, and he is still making bizarre speeches about how Clinton and Obama are practicing a mystery religion, that he is going to make a lot of money off of a British economic downturn, and appears to be spending time promoting his shitty businesses instead of....ya know, actually campaigning. He's spending quite a bit of time this week in Scotland, promoting his golf course, just before the Republican convention. From what I have heard, they haven't even booked any speakers or have much of a schedule planned out yet.

Clearly the media is trying to once again sell us on the idea that Trump is going to finally turn things around and people don't appear to be buying it, at all. All he did was fire one guy, take a day off, and now he is a completely different person? Bullshit. This is like throwing a bucket of paint on a burned out Ford Pinto and claiming you have a brand new Lamborghini. No one is going to believe any of this shit and clearly they aren't.

Change in the Democrats favor, of course.

The June 20-24 poll showed that 46.6 percent of likely American voters supported Clinton while 33.3 percent supported Trump. Another 20.1 percent said they would support neither candidate. Trump had enjoyed a brief boost in support following the June 12 mass shooting in Orlando, Florida, as he doubled down on his pledge to ban Muslims from entering the country, cutting Clinton's lead to nine points. But Trump's rise in popularity appeared to be only temporary, unlike his lasting surge among the Republican field last year after the attacks in Paris and in San Bernardino, California. Clinton's 13.3 percentage point lead is about the same as she had before the Orlando attack.

Me: National polls don't really tell you much, though. We've seen many popular votes that were higher for the loser because the electoral map awards electoral votes in spots and clumps, which can turn an entire state red, regardless of the popular vote.

Wasn't that Gore? I think.

But it's still good news because so many voters are swayed entirely by what they hear, regardless of what it all means.

People will vote irrationally for totally emotional/egoic reasons, and then be shocked when they lose their prized programs.

You know the vast majority of fRump voters have social security or disability or other government money as their sole source of income. Not one of them will put 2 and 2 together and catch on that he'll rip it away from them.

How will THEY break?

3% Gary Johnson
3% Jill Stein
4% other or no vote
6% Clinton
4% Trump

Just a guess.

At this point Trump probably won't get to 40%.

They're blue!