Bullshit theory utterly mispredicts Trump-Sanders election

[Bucky]

http://lascienzapolitica.blogspot.com/2016/03/lsp-projection-at-best-trump-would-win.html



The map is way off, but this is a good starting spot for figuring out what November will look like. I mean its too soon to do this, but at some point we should be talking about what the state elections will go

[Ford_Prefect]

1. Without the results from 50% of the primaries this really is impossible.

To presume that Turnip Head will win Florida and will not win Montana makes no sense. But then trying to talk sense about his candidacy at this point has only hype for context since it assumes the GOP machine will support him. I don't think the party leadership such as it remains is that thrilled about him that they would throw away congressional seats to elect him. They cannot control him and that is one thing they won't abide at all.

[Mbrow]

2. AAAh, not to be an asshole or anything but

Being from Idaho, what makes anyone think Idaho will vote Democratic? Or am I misreading the map?

[oberliner]

3. In what universe do the Democrats win Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, and North and South Dakota?

Zero chance of any of that happening.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. and Alaska

[oberliner]

6. Right

So that's 30 electoral votes that should be over on the red side.

But, if Democrats can win Florida, Ohio, and PA - it's a win.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. yup - but if Trump wins and takes Kasich - Ohio out. But - Kasich has

pretty much denounced Trump and he may not be able to back off that enough to accept the VP slot? Trump has said that if he feels he can win a state because "they love him there" he won't pick a VP just to prop him up. I believe that's why he ended up trashing Jeb and Rubio to the point of no return. Trump's problem may be in finding someone who can stand him enough to run with him. Although - in this cycle - a VP candidate may say - "Sure, I will be his VP, then I can keep Trump in check."

[oberliner]

9. Yes, I worry about winning Ohio

Can still get there without that state, but then would really need to take Florida - also not easy.

Edit to add: Though I don't think Trump would have Kasich as his running mate.

[tblue37]

13. I see a lot of GOP pols (like Christie) hoping for a VP slot or a cabinet position. nt

[Chan790]

15. ...or...

"Sure, I will be his VP, then when he tries to run the country like he runs his business (with loose regard to legalities and regulations)...and attempts to bully Congress; I can be President!!"

To be sure, there are worse jobs than to be the VP to a blowhard who is a strong bet to be an "under" on the over/under of whether he gets himself impeached in the first 100 days.

[Erose999]

18. Fuckabee, Crisco, and Ambien Carson are all licking Drumpfenfurer's boots for the VP spot now.

[Logical]

5. It will not be trump. Nt

[oberliner]

11. Who do you think it would be?

Hard to imagine any non-Trump scenario at this point. He will certainly win the most delegates.

[Angel Martin]

7. given how bizarre this primary season has been already

using past patterns to predict this election has to be a fools errand.

[LannyDeVaney]

10. I think the guy who drew up that map ...

didn't know how to use the little pen in Paint, and always had the big brush selected.

Or is that too obtuse?

[Bucky]

12. That'd explain a lot

The. more i look at it the sillier it gets.

[Chan790]

16. Something all Democrats can agree on.

Such things are rare these days and should be celebrated and noted when they occur.

[Chan790]

17. If Trump is the GOP nominee...

there is a strong possibility that Trump wins Nevada.

He still has a lot of connections and friends in the gaming industry from his time in the casino industry in AC, NJ. A lot of backing from people with power and money in Las Vegas. A lot of people who have spent their entire careers in the gaming industry and have more positive views of him than most people.

It's not toss-up but it does move Nevada from safe-Dem to Dem-leaning toss-up.